ANALYSIS: Why Kim Jong Un Is Meeting Putin and What It Means for China’s Xi

In this pool photog distributed by Sputnik agency, Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L) and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un (R) visit the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur region on September 13, 2023. Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un both arrived at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia's Far East, Russian news agencies reported on September 13, ahead of planned talks that could lead to a weapons deal. VLADIMIR SMIRNOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

News Analysis

Beijing is at risk of seeing its influence over North Korea dwindling, experts told the Chinese language edition of The Epoch Times last Saturday.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a Russian spaceport, last Wednesday. Following this, Mr. Kim continued his visit to Komsomolsk-on-Amur and Vladivostok, where he toured the production facility for Russia’s main combat aircraft, the SU-35, and visited the Russian Pacific Fleet.

The state leaders of two sanctioned regimes—due to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile tests—said that the two countries would cooperate in “sensitive” fields.

Experts say they believe that the two leaders met mainly for the trading of weapons, fuel, food, and military technology assistance—each taking what they needed. And as Pyongyang and Moscow get closer, Pyongyang may end up causing trouble for the Chinese communist regime, they said.

Arms for Food, Fuel, and Technology Support

Shen Ming-shih, acting deputy CEO of research at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Epoch Times that the meeting between the two leaders at this time was motivated by of their own needs.

“Right now, Russia might be gearing up for a showdown with Ukraine, but their military is running low on ammo. If North Korea can provide them with ammo or any other supplies, the sooner, the better, of course,” Mr. Shen said.

Russia's Deputy head of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev inspects arms production as he visits the Aleksinsky Experimental Mechanical Plant in the town of Aleksin in the Tula region, Russia, on June 15, 2023. Sputnik/Yekaterina Shtukina/Pool via Reuters

It is estimated that Russia fired 10-11 million shells in Ukraine last year, while it only manufactures two million shells annually. North Korea’s stockpile of ammo could be of some immediate help to Russia, noted Lu Sibin, a researcher at the Taiwan Defense Policy Initiative.

“North Korea’s ammunition stockpile, including Soviet-made 122mm and 152mm howitzer shells, ranks among the top three in the world, with approximately millions of these shells. This does indeed provide significant assistance to Russia in the short term,” Mr. Lu told The Epoch Times on Sept. 16.

Mr. Shen commented that North Korea’s deal is likely to trade its arms with Russia for food and fuel, among other things.

“On the flip side, North Korea needs fuel and food because winter is approaching. It will be even better if they can also get help from Russia in military technology, especially in Russia’s nuclear submarine and military spy satellites technology. Naturally, they'd both prefer to settle these things as quickly as possible,” he said.

Yang Uk, an expert in military strategy and weapons systems at the South Korean think tank Asan Institute for Policy Studies, told The Associated Press on Sept. 13. that North Korea may want to launch a military satellite on a Russian space rocket and that it could “ask Russia to build a more powerful spy satellite than the one it has been trying to launch.”

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned on Sept. 5 that Russia and North Korea were actively engaging in arms negotiations. On Sept. 11, Washington once again warned Pyongyang not to sell weapons to Russia that can be used in the Ukraine war, threatening more sanctions on North Korea.

Beijing Supportive of Arms Deals: Experts

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, in Dalian City in northeastern China in this undated photo released on May 9, 2018. KCNA/via Reuters

Despite U.S. warnings of sanctions, Beijing seems supportive of North Korea’s arms deals, according to a China expert based in Australia.

“The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is trying to maintain its relationship with Russia. However, the CCP also worries Russia will be defeated in the long run. It is unwilling to stand with a potential loser and bear such a high cost,” said Feng Chongyi, associate professor of China studies at the University of Technology Sydney, in an interview with the Chinese language edition of The Epoch Times on Sept. 16.

“China wants to sell weapons and ammunition [to Russia], but it is concerned that Europe and the United States will impose comprehensive sanctions on it. However, it wants to oppose the United States while keeping Vladimir Putin as an ally. Such arms deals are of benefit for the CCP, so it certainly won’t block such transactions,” he said.

North Korea-Russia Coalition May Weaken CCP’s Influence: Experts

Extensive military and economic cooperation between Russia and North Korea may potentially impact the geopolitical status quo in Northeast Asia, experts said their analyses. If Russia and North Korea continue to draw closer, Beijing’s influence over both countries could diminish. Mr. Kim, a dictator who receives military assistance from Russia, may become even more bold and unpredictable, posing a threat to the CCP.

Mr. Lu believes that the relationship among these three “evil axis countries” is unstable as they “lack mutual trust, differ in values, and have different diplomatic strategies.”

“It’s purely a relationship of materialistic strategic interests,” Mr. Lu said. “When it comes to the security issues on the Korean Peninsula, China, North Korea, and Russia cannot form a security alliance; they purely pursue what they lack. They are not like the United States, Japan, and South Korea, which have common democratic values to defend,” he said.

Mr. Shen said a major threat to the CCP could be a North Korea equipped with nuclear weapons.

“If North Korea possesses nuclear-powered submarines [provided by Russia], coupled with nuclear weapons, and then if North Korea refuses to listen to the CCP, which may lose its control over Pyongyang, or if there is a future conflict between the two countries, these nuclear weapons would pose a significant threat to the CCP,” Mr. Shen said.

Mr. Lu noted that after North Korea obtains military satellite technology and nuclear weapons from Russia, it will also likely obtain military orders and free food assistance from Russia, which will reduce the CCP’s control over North Korea.

Mr. Feng also agrees that the CCP’s influence on North Korea is not as significant as it is often perceived. North Korea doesn’t necessarily follow the CCP in all aspects, Mr. Feng said.

Both experts are of the opinion that Mr. Kim, unlike democratically-elected state leaders, makes decisions based on the benefits of his rule over North Korea.

“China has territorial disputes with North Korea, and the relationship between Kim Jong Un and Chinese leader Xi Jinping isn’t as harmonious as it may appear to outsiders,” Mr. Feng said.

“Currently, Kim Jong Un is strengthening ties with Russia’s Putin to show Xi Jinping that he doesn’t rely solely on one ally. This reduces Kim Jong Un and North Korea’s dependence on the CCP,” he said.

Mr. Lu said now that North Korea is leaning toward Russia, it will definitely weaken to some extent Beijing’s diplomatic influence on North Korea.

Russian President Putin told reporters that Russia and North Korea had “lots of interesting projects” in fields including transportation and agriculture, and that Russia is providing North Korea with humanitarian aid.

Song Tang, Yi Ru, and The Associated Press contributed to this report.