ANALYSIS: What the Second Byelection Loss Means for the Liberals

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Ottawa on Sept. 17, 2024. The Canadian Press/Justin Tang

Speculation about the future of the Liberal Party has intensified after its loss of another stronghold in a close byelection, this time in the Quebec riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun.

According to preliminary byelection results, the Bloc Quebecois won the riding with 28 percent of the vote, compared to the Liberal Party at 27.2 percent and NDP with 26.1 percent. The riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun had been held by the Liberals since 2015, when David Lametti won 44 percent of the vote compared to 29 percent for the NDP,

The loss comes close to three months after the Conservatives achieved a stunning but narrow win in the Ontario riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s, getting 42 percent of the vote to the Liberals’ 40 percent support. The riding had been held by the Liberals since 1988.

The defeat also comes just a few weeks after the New Democrats ended their supply-and-confidence agreement keeping the minority Liberals in power until June 2025.

According to Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research, the recent byelection loss is a “crushing blow” for the Liberal party.

“It’s now a complete political siege, with setbacks in the city of Toronto and now on the island of Montreal,” Nanos said.

Down in Quebec

The Liberal Party has been trailing the Conservatives in the polls for over a year, with the latest Nanos poll from Sept. 17 showing the Liberals have the support of just 25 percent of Canadians, compared with the Conservatives at 42 percent and the NDP at 22 percent.

In Quebec, the latest data from polling aggregator 338Canada on Sept. 15 shows the Bloc Québécois is leading with 33 percent of the vote, followed by the Liberals at 26 percent and Conservatives at 24 percent. In the last federal election in 2021, the Liberals took 35 of 78 seats in Quebec with 34 percent of the vote in the province, compared with the Bloc’s 32 percent and the Tories’ 19 percent.

Nanos said Quebec is still “critical for the Liberals” and the recent byelection results show that the next election could be “completely ugly for them.” The results show Quebecers are disappointed with the Liberals, he said, while the Bloc is seen as a “significant and viable alternative for voters.”

Tim Powers, chair of public affairs consulting firm Summa Strategies, said the Liberal Party has been unable to increase its polling numbers anywhere in Canada for several months.

“The last number of [federal] elections, when they’ve had success, they’ve won in Montreal and they’ve won in Toronto. If the prime minister, who has traditionally been popular in those areas, can’t get people elected there that is an ominous sign for the federal Liberals,” he said.

Leadership Question

After the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection upset, some current and former Liberal MPs said Trudeau should step down, while many others publicly said he should remain leader. Trudeau has said he has more work to do and will be staying as leader.

Nanos said the latest loss makes Trudeau’s leadership “more and more untenable and difficult with a setback like that, because it shows that there’s not a lot of political coattails for him personally at this particular point in time.”

Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, said it’s possible Trudeau has already decided to step down at some point, but that he’s waiting for the right timing.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if Trudeau has decided. And I think the question is, ‘When can he do it and not hurt the party?’” Wiseman said.

Trudeau told reporters on Sept. 17 that while it would have been “nicer to be able to win and hold Verdun,” he’s going to stay focused on his work.

“The big thing is to make sure that Canadians understand that the choice they get to make in the next election, about the kind of country we are, really matters, and that’s the work we’re going to continue to do,” he said.