ANALYSIS: What the NDP Would Lose by Breaking Deal With Liberals

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh during question period in House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on June 18, 2024. The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick

The NDP is facing pressure from the Conservatives to break its agreement with the Liberals and trigger an early election, and doing so would not leave many of its big agenda items on the table, a review of the deal shows.

Major pieces of legislation supported by the NDP have been adopted in the areas of dental care, child care, and energy transition, while the pharmacare bill is in the Senate after clearing the House of Commons in June.

Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre asked NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to drop his support for the Liberals in a letter made public this week. Poilievre said the NDP promised the alliance would help make things more affordable in Canada and pointed to Singh complaining recently about the high cost of living.

To remain in power as a minority government, the Liberals struck a supply and confidence agreement with the NDP in March 2022. In exchange for support on confidence votes in the House of Commons, the Liberals agreed to implement items on the NDP agenda.

The NDP has threatened to pull out of the agreement several times but the Liberal government managed to keep the deal.

Ahead of the new parliamentary session starting in mid-September, and with the deal extending until the end of the spring session of 2025, the partners have not said what area of the agreement they'll focus on.

The deal has now been in place for nearly two and a half years, and the vast majority of elements in the agreement have been carried out.

Government House Leader Karina Gould, who manages inter-party issues, was asked by reporters on the sidelines of the recent Liberal cabinet retreat in Halifax what her party needs to do to keep the NDP on board.

“We’ve signed the agreement till the end of June, so as far as I’m concerned, that’s something that has been signed and agreed to,” she said on Aug. 27. “And so I’m going to be working on that premise.”

Gould said there are still parts of the agreement that need to be accomplished and that her government would “keep pushing in that direction.” The minister added she is “fairly confident” that the “strong agreement” will survive until its expiry date.

The Epoch Times reached out to the NDP for comment but didn’t hear back.

‘Better Healthcare’

Putting in place a “better healthcare system” is the first theme in the Liberal-NDP agreement. In addition to dental care and pharmacare, the deal said the government would need to increase investments and work with provinces. All provinces and territories have signed new health accords with Ottawa, with Quebec being the last one in March.

The final clause on health care relates to the tabling of a Safe Long-Term Care Act for seniors. Health Canada published the results of public consultations on the future bill on Aug. 29.

The second theme of the supply and confidence agreement relates to “making life more affordable.” Most of the elements therein have been actioned, such as introducing the Early Learning and Child Care Act, launching the Housing Accelerator Fund, and providing a $500 top-up to the Canada Housing Benefit.

The major clause in the affordability section that hasn’t been implemented is the Homebuyer’s Bill of Rights to end practices like blind bidding, which prevents bidders from knowing the bids of others and drives up home prices. It featured as a Liberal campaign promise in 2021 and appeared in Budget 2022.

Essentially everything has been implemented under the theme of addressing the “climate crisis,” which called for passing “Just Transition” legislation to provide jobs to workers impacted by the transition out of oil and gas. The legislation was renamed the Canadian Sustainable Jobs Act and became law in June.

The Liberal government has also been working on a plan to phase out public financing of the oil and gas sector and has implemented programs to increase home energy efficiency.

On the labour front, the implementation of 10 days of paid sick leave for federally regulated workers came into force in late 2022.

The major component of legislation passed to prohibit the use of replacement workers during a lockout or strike also became reality, with Bill C-58 receiving royal assent in late June.

With regard to reconciliation with First Nations, progress has been made in indigenous housing, and a roundtable looked into the issue of missing and murdered indigenous women and girls. Ottawa has also funded communities to conduct burial searches at the sites of former residential schools.

The two clauses under the theme of putting in place a “fairer tax system” have also been carried out. Budget 2022 introduced measures to draw additional revenues from banks and life insurance groups, with a one-time 15 percent tax on income above 1 billion and a permanent 1.5 percent income tax raise.

A publicly accessible beneficial ownership registry for corporations was also implemented in January.

‘Making Democracy Work’

The last theme of the Liberal-NDP agreement pertains to “making democracy work for people.” The deal calls for expanding election day over three days, allowing people to vote at any polling place within their electoral district, and improving the process of mail-in ballots.

Briefing material for Chief Electoral Officer Stéphane Perrault’s attendance at a House committee in May 2023 pushed back against the three-day voting idea, saying it would “likely result in decrease in services.”

It said Elections Canada’s “ability to deliver an election that Canadians trust could be threatened.” The electoral body instead proposed adding two days of advance voting.

Elections Canada said allowing people to vote anywhere within their district could lead to double voting. To prevent this, it plans to roll out electronic voter lists for the next general election.

Another point of the agreement under the democracy theme pertains to maintaining the number of seats for Quebec in the House of Commons. The clause was written before a 2022-2023 seat redistribution in which Quebec kept its 78 seats.

In light of this exhaustive list, the NDP could pull out of its agreement with the Liberals, having obtained most of its demands. The choice could come down to calculating whether it is politically advantageous to break the deal to have an early election.

The latest Léger poll on federal voting intentions suggests support for the NDP has dropped 5 points to 15 percent in August compared to the previous month. Conservatives lead with 43 percent, followed by the Liberals at 25 percent.

The NDP would not lose much on its agenda by breaking with the Liberals, but it could end up losing seats. A true test of its popularity will come with the Sept. 16 byelections, when it will defend a stronghold in Winnipeg and seek to unseat the Liberals in their stronghold of Montreal.