ANALYSIS: What Happens Next After Iranian President’s Death

Iranian leader Ebrahim Raisi addresses parliament in Tehran, Iran, on Nov. 16, 2021. Mr. Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19, 2024. (Vahid Salemi/AP Photo)

Shortly after news broke on May 19 that the helicopter carrying the Iranian president and other officials had crashed in northwestern Iran, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said there would be no disruption to administrative affairs.

To Iran observers, this would be stating the obvious, as despite its very complex political structure and multiple and overlapping governmental bodies, all power ultimately rests with the supreme leader, and increasingly, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose extensive control reaches across all aspects and institutions of the country, including the economic sector.

Also, since the 1979 revolution, Iran is no stranger to high-ranking officials, including a president, dying while in office.

What Happens Next?

Ebrahim Raisi’s death in the helicopter crash, along with his companions including Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, was confirmed on May 20, after the crash site was found in harsh weather conditions in the northwest of Iran.

In the immediate aftermath of Mr. Raisi’s death, his vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, assumed the role of acting president, per the Islamic Republic’s constitution and with the supreme leader’s approval.

Meanwhile, a council consisting of the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, the head of the judiciary, and the vice president has been formed to facilitate the election of the next president.

Iranian Acting President Mohammad Mokhber in a file photo. (Atta Kenare/AFP)

The regime has said it will hold elections on June 28 to choose Mr. Raisi’s replacement.

Under the Islamic Republic’s system, candidates must be vetted by the Guardian Council, which effectively means that only those who have the approval of the regime will have a chance to become president.

The presidential and legislative elections have seen markedly lower voter turnouts in recent years amid the public’s increased uprisings against the regime.

Possible Presidential Candidates

Amid speculation about who may become the next president, one person whose name has come up is the vice president, Mr. Mokhber, a fundamentalist and former deputy governor of Khuzestan province, who has held senior roles in a number of other bodies in the regime.

Another possibility is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a fundamentalist and the current speaker of the parliament of Iran, who has run as a candidate in previous presidential elections without success.

Among the so-called reformist faction candidates, some have speculated that former President Hassan Rouhani and former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif may throw their hats in the ring.

Leadership Succession

Speculation is also swirling around the future of the regime’s leadership in the aftermath of Mr. Raisi’s death, because his name was among those considered as a possible replacement for the current supreme leader, Mr. Khamenei, who is 85.

The supreme leader of the regime is chosen by the Assembly of Experts, whose members are selected by the Guardian Council, whose members in turn are directly or indirectly selected by the current supreme leader himself.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian military staff in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 7, 2021. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Since the 1979 revolution, there have been only two leaders in Iran: founding Islamic Republic leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who died in 1989, and Mr. Khamenei, who replaced him.

Some say that with Mr. Raisi gone, Mr. Khamenei’s cleric son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is solidified as the next leader.

“[T]he key takeaway is not really who succeeds him (that’s the 1st VP Mohammad Mokhber, but only as a caretaker for 50 days before an election). It’s the fact that the next Supreme Leader is most likely Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei,” Gabriel Noronha, former U.S. State Department adviser on Iran, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Death of Presidents

There have been two other Iranian presidents who didn’t finish their first terms; one of them was assassinated.

Iran’s first post-revolution president, Abolhassan Banisadr, who was among the close advisers to Ayatollah Khomeini before the revolution, was impeached and ousted from power less than a year into his term.

His replacement, Mohammad-Ali Rajai, was assassinated in 1981 by opposition forces less than a month into his presidency. His assassination was one of the many in the tumultuous years following the revolution, including the killing of Mohammad Beheshti, chief justice of the regime’s supreme court.

As of now, no official explanation has been given as to the reason for the crash of the helicopter carrying Mr. Raisi.

Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, says he has tasked a high-level committee to probe the cause of the crash.

Mahdi Saremifar, a Canada-based technology investigative journalist, thinks that it’s unlikely that it was an accident that took down the Bell 212 helicopter, a model that has been used by both the United States and Canada. He says the fact that the tracing of the helicopter crash site took so long given all advanced signaling systems available adds to the mystery.

“The issue of a technical fault in these helicopters is very unlikely, and the question arises as to how all the tracking systems of this helicopter, including GPS and transponders, failed simultaneously. It is highly unlikely that the crash was so severe that it affected the entire system,” he told the Persian edition of The Epoch Times.

“It is possible that part of the helicopter experienced a technical failure, but it is unusual for all the systems inside the helicopter to fail, especially when one of the main officials of the Islamic Republic is on board.”

Rescue team members work at the site of a crashed helicopter, an incident in which Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed, in Varzaghan, northwestern Iran, on May 20, 2024. (Azin Haghighi/AFP via Getty Images)

Referencing U.S. intelligence assessments, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer stated that there is currently no evidence of sabotage, but investigations are still underway.

There have been other accidents with helicopters carrying Iranian officials, including one in 2013, when the helicopter of then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had to make an emergency landing in the country’s northeast. In another incident last year, a helicopter carrying the minister of sports crashed in southern Iran, resulting in the death of one of the passengers, an adviser within the ministry. The minister himself, Hamid Sajjadi, and others survived the crash.

Iraj Mesdaghi, an Iranian Swedish political activist, told the Persian edition of The Epoch Times that he believes the crash that killed Mr. Raisi was an accident, a result of the regime’s “incompetence.”

“It’s not easy for the regime to select a presidential candidate in around 40 days. There is no serious candidate who can both advance what Khamenei wants and be trusted by the factions within the regime,” Mr. Mesdaghi said.

“This internal strife intensifies within the system [with Mr. Raisi’s death].”