What Happens Next?
Ebrahim Raisi’s death in the helicopter crash, along with his companions including Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, was confirmed on May 20, after the crash site was found in harsh weather conditions in the northwest of Iran.Under the Islamic Republic’s system, candidates must be vetted by the Guardian Council, which effectively means that only those who have the approval of the regime will have a chance to become president.
Possible Presidential Candidates
Amid speculation about who may become the next president, one person whose name has come up is the vice president, Mr. Mokhber, a fundamentalist and former deputy governor of Khuzestan province, who has held senior roles in a number of other bodies in the regime.Another possibility is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a fundamentalist and the current speaker of the parliament of Iran, who has run as a candidate in previous presidential elections without success.
Leadership Succession
Speculation is also swirling around the future of the regime’s leadership in the aftermath of Mr. Raisi’s death, because his name was among those considered as a possible replacement for the current supreme leader, Mr. Khamenei, who is 85.The supreme leader of the regime is chosen by the Assembly of Experts, whose members are selected by the Guardian Council, whose members in turn are directly or indirectly selected by the current supreme leader himself.
Some say that with Mr. Raisi gone, Mr. Khamenei’s cleric son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is solidified as the next leader.
Death of Presidents
There have been two other Iranian presidents who didn’t finish their first terms; one of them was assassinated.Iran’s first post-revolution president, Abolhassan Banisadr, who was among the close advisers to Ayatollah Khomeini before the revolution, was impeached and ousted from power less than a year into his term.
His replacement, Mohammad-Ali Rajai, was assassinated in 1981 by opposition forces less than a month into his presidency. His assassination was one of the many in the tumultuous years following the revolution, including the killing of Mohammad Beheshti, chief justice of the regime’s supreme court.
As of now, no official explanation has been given as to the reason for the crash of the helicopter carrying Mr. Raisi.
Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, says he has tasked a high-level committee to probe the cause of the crash.
Mahdi Saremifar, a Canada-based technology investigative journalist, thinks that it’s unlikely that it was an accident that took down the Bell 212 helicopter, a model that has been used by both the United States and Canada. He says the fact that the tracing of the helicopter crash site took so long given all advanced signaling systems available adds to the mystery.
“The issue of a technical fault in these helicopters is very unlikely, and the question arises as to how all the tracking systems of this helicopter, including GPS and transponders, failed simultaneously. It is highly unlikely that the crash was so severe that it affected the entire system,” he told the Persian edition of The Epoch Times.
“It is possible that part of the helicopter experienced a technical failure, but it is unusual for all the systems inside the helicopter to fail, especially when one of the main officials of the Islamic Republic is on board.”
Referencing U.S. intelligence assessments, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer stated that there is currently no evidence of sabotage, but investigations are still underway.
There have been other accidents with helicopters carrying Iranian officials, including one in 2013, when the helicopter of then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had to make an emergency landing in the country’s northeast. In another incident last year, a helicopter carrying the minister of sports crashed in southern Iran, resulting in the death of one of the passengers, an adviser within the ministry. The minister himself, Hamid Sajjadi, and others survived the crash.
Iraj Mesdaghi, an Iranian Swedish political activist, told the Persian edition of The Epoch Times that he believes the crash that killed Mr. Raisi was an accident, a result of the regime’s “incompetence.”
“It’s not easy for the regime to select a presidential candidate in around 40 days. There is no serious candidate who can both advance what Khamenei wants and be trusted by the factions within the regime,” Mr. Mesdaghi said.
“This internal strife intensifies within the system [with Mr. Raisi’s death].”