ANALYSIS: Snap Election Showdown: Crucial Next Few Weeks

Volatility can be expected in Parliament over the next few weeks with attempts by the Liberals and opposition parties to reach deals or the Bloc Québécois and NDP voting with the Conservatives to bring down the minority government. The Canadian Press

While the Conservatives have been clear that they want an election today, a second federal party—the Bloc Québécois—this week left no ambiguity as to its position on forcing an early election, saying it wants passage of two key bills before November in order to retain its support of the Liberals.

The NDP’s position, meanwhile, still remains ambiguous, with the party saying it will be looking at confidence votes on a case-by-case basis.

Both the NDP and the Bloc had made it clear since last week that they would vote against the Conservatives’ non-confidence motion on Sept. 25 to bring down the minority Liberal government, saying they want to make calls on the issue on their own terms.

But there are a variety of factors at play for each party, which could determine at what point they may abandon their support of the Liberals.

With 153 seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals need the support of either the Bloc’s 33 MPs or the NDP’s 25 to survive confidence votes. Polls show that if an election were held today, the Conservatives would likely win a majority government.

Crucial Weeks

When NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh on Sept. 4 ended his party’s supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals that kept them in power until June 2025, he said it was because the Liberals were “too beholden to corporate interests.” The agreement between the two parties was struck in March 2022 in exchange for the passage of key legislation such as pharmacare and a national dental care plan that the NDP wanted.

The Sept. 4 announcement came shortly after the Liberals intervened in the national rail strike by imposing binding arbitration, a move heavily criticized by the NDP, whose base of support has traditionally been in the labour movement. As Singh criticized the move, he in turn fielded criticism from the Conservatives and other opponents as to why he was keeping the government he’s criticizing in power.

If the NDP goes against the Liberals on an upcoming confidence vote that fails to topple the government due to Bloc support—especially one that’s plainly about confidence, as was the Sept. 25 vote, rather than about a proposed law or policy—the party would risk the appearance of flip-flopping should it reverse its position on a subsequent vote.

As for the Bloc, it said on Sept. 25 that it would give the Liberals until Oct. 29 to support two pieces of legislation the party wants passed, or face the Bloc’s move to begin talks with other opposition parties to bring down the government. Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet had previously said that no party wants to be responsible for triggering an election after October, as that would mean an election during the Christmas season, a very unpopular scenario.

“The public does not want an election freezing in the winter or when they’re cottaging and vacationing in the summer,” Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, said in an interview.

That means the period between now and the end of October could be very volatile, since after that time, it could be spring 2025 before opposition parties will attempt to bring down the government again.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre rises during Question Period, in Ottawa, June 19, 2024. The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

In a Sept. 17 interview with CBC’s Power and Politics, Blanchet said that the provincial elections may also be a factor in how things unfold. B.C. is holding its election on Oct. 19, New Brunswick on Oct. 21, and Saskatchewan on Oct. 28.

“[By mid-October,] we will have had one month to do things, negotiate, obtain things. The Conservatives will be at the end of their provincial elections—they will have made the same calculations as I have made. So that would be a few days where we will have to be very careful about what is happening,” Blanchet said.

The Bloc had at different times earlier named a number of priorities on which it was seeking support from the Liberals in exchange for providing votes of confidence. By Sept. 25, the party had narrowed those down to two items.

One is that it wants the Liberals by Oct. 29 to provide their support to pass Bill C-319, which seeks to increase the Old Age Security pension by 10 percent for seniors aged 65 to 74. The other is the passage of Bill C-282, which is related to supply management and is important to Quebec’s dairy sector. The bill would seek assurances from the federal government to not abandon the supply management scheme in trade negotiations.

NDP Wants More Time

But even as parties may play hardball in their negotiations, they are always looking out for the best gains they can make.

In the case of a majority Conservative government, no such negotiation positions by opposition parties would be tenable, as the government wouldn’t be reliant on the support of any one party to govern.

“Unless the NDP and Bloc, both of them really, see an increase in their power, I think we’re not going to have an election till we’re forced to,” Conrad Winn, a political science professor at Carleton University, told The Epoch Times.

“Things are going to last as long as possible.”

Peter Graefe, a political science professor at McMaster University, says there are a variety of reasons why the NDP may not be looking to force an early election, one of which is the issue of funding.

“Money is always an issue for them,” Graefe said in an interview.

According to the federal parties’ most recent financial statements, showing their balance sheets as of Dec. 31, 2023, the Conservatives have $10 million in unrestricted funds, while the Liberals have $2.1 million and the NDP have $1.8 million. When it comes to cash on hand, the Tories lead with a whopping $16 million, the Liberals have $2.8 million, and the NDP has just $289,000.

Graefe also said that, when it comes to candidate nominations, the NDP would “probably appreciate another six to nine months to increase the recruitment of candidates.”

He said the NDP also has an interest in waiting for the Liberals to fall further in the polls, making the New Democrats a stronger alternative in the minds of “soft Liberal voters who, on occasion, may decide to vote NDP when they’re unhappy, or see the NDP as the only way to beat the Conservatives.”

Projections from Sept. 22 by polling aggregator 338Canada show that if an election were held today, the NDP would go from its current 25 seats to 15 seats. The biggest winners would be the Conservatives, moving from 119 seats to 220, in majority government territory, followed by the Bloc, which would move from 33 seats to 42. The Liberals would shrink from 153 seats to 64, the projections show.

The recent byelection in the traditionally Liberal stronghold of Montreal’s LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, which was won by the Bloc, was seen as another sign that the Bloc is increasing its popularity in Quebec. The NDP also said that by having come in at a close third place, with the Bloc and the Liberals taking the first and second spots, it has increased its chances in the Montreal area where the party generally has not been a strong contender.

Pending Legislation

According to Wiseman, if the Bloc makes the Bill C-319 pension increase a confidence matter, it may “put the NDP into a box” and force it to vote with the Bloc, since the measure involves public spending. Depending on how the Liberals and the Conservatives are voting, that could mean the government being defeated in a confidence vote. The Parliamentary Budget Officer has said that implementing the bill would cost taxpayers over $3 billion per year.

As for the supply management bill, C-282, the governing Liberals may not be inclined to support it given how it would handicap the government during trade negotiations, Wiseman says.

“You don’t go into negotiations saying that some things are completely off-limits,” he said.

Another factor is the pharmacare bill, C-64, which was requested by the NDP and still hasn’t been passed into law. It has been passed in the House of Commons and is currently being deliberated in the Senate, having passed second reading there on June 18.

“[The NDP] could still use the rationale that this isn’t the time for an election and they’re worried about Canadians losing out on pharmacare,” Wiseman said.

There will be seven Opposition days this fall, five of which go to the Conservatives. The party has not said when it plans to table another non-confidence motion.