ANALYSIS: ‘Next Level’: Moe an Increasingly Strong Voice on the National Political Stage

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe speaks during the Saskatchewan Party Convention in Regina on Nov. 4, 2023. The Canadian Press/Heywood Yu

Out of the five conservative leaders featured on the 2018 Maclean’s magazine cover headlined “The resistance,” only two are still in their leadership roles: Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Ontario Premier Doug Ford.

“A carbon tax? Just try them,” was the cover story’s headline. It’s a statement that sums up Mr. Moe’s recent challenge to Ottawa on the carbon tax. He said last week he’s serious about halting the collection of all carbon taxes on natural gas starting Jan. 1, no matter what federal law says.

The three other leaders have since resigned their posts: former premiers Jason Kenney of Alberta and Brian Pallister of Manitoba, and former federal Conservative leader Andrew Scheer. Mr. Ford remains in power and has posed some resistance to the feds, but arguably doesn’t seem to clash with Liberal Ottawa as often as does Mr. Moe.

Mr. Moe’s strong resistance goes beyond the carbon tax.

“I would say he’s one of the strongest voices by far for provincial jurisdiction,” said David Leis, vice president of the Frontier Centre for Public Policy think tank, in an interview with The Epoch Times. Mr. Moe has stood for provincial rights on resource development, gun control, parental rights, and more.

Of course, Alberta’s premiers—including Mr. Kenney, and now Danielle Smith—are known for standing up to Ottawa too, as are the conservative Atlantic premiers on certain issues.

Mr. Moe’s Saskatchewan hasn’t necessarily replaced Alberta as Ottawa’s main opponent, says Marco Navarro-Génie, president of the Alberta-based Haultain Research Institute think tank. The two provinces are partners in many ways, he said. But Saskatchewan’s premier is better positioned than Ms. Smith to take some fights further, for example when it comes to the topic of parental rights, Mr. Navarro-Génie and Mr. Leis both said.

‘Lougheed of Saskatchewan’

“Saskatchewan reminds me of Alberta 50 years ago,” Mr. Navarro-Génie told The Epoch Times. “Moe is essentially the Lougheed of Saskatchewan.”

The late Peter Lougheed was Alberta’s premier from 1971 to 1985, and during his tenure he stood strongly against the energy policies of then-prime minister Pierre Trudeau, including the National Energy Program, which broadly impacted Alberta’s oil industry.

That time period saw an escalation of Western alienation sentiments and fervour over provincial rights that continue to impact Alberta-Ottawa relations today.

Alberta Premier Peter Lougheed speaks at a news conference in a file photo from 1984. The Canadian Press/Staff

Mr. Navarro-Génie summed up Mr. Lougheed’s fight for Alberta, extending that description to Mr. Moe’s fight for Saskatchewan today: “Lougheed is really the provincial premier in Alberta that made a conscious effort no longer to go along with Ottawa, but to put his foot down ... to attack what needed to be attacked at the federal level and defend what needed to be defended in Alberta,” he said.

That’s not to say everyone in Saskatchewan sees Mr. Moe as their champion, he said. Among Saskatchewan’s more “blue” conservatives, for example, there are those who “cringe at supporting Moe because of the lockdowns.”

As Mr. Moe faced opposition to the lockdowns and vaccine mandates, he did, however, speak with the Unified Grassroots group that was highly critical of COVID measures in the province in the tail end of the pandemic. He has continued to have an open ear for this group, which is very good at mobilizing Saskatchewanians, Mr. Navarro-Génie said, evidence of Mr. Moe’s “very strong political antennas.”

Unified Grassroots stands behind the premier’s recent moves to ensure parental rights and to address sexual orientation and gender identity content in schools.

A poll by Insightrix Research Inc. published Oct. 20 shows Mr. Moe’s Saskatchewan Party remains 6 percentage points ahead of the NDP opposition, though the gap between them has narrowed since Mr. Moe’s 2020 re-election.

Mr. Moe also often leads premier approval polls, including most recently in the Angus Reid survey published in September, where he was Canada’s most popular premier at 50 percent.

Brad Wall, from whom Mr. Moe inherited the premiership, was a popular figure and also a strong defender of Saskatchewan’s rights, Mr. Navarro-Génie said, but “Moe is just bringing it up to a new level.”

He said this is partly because Mr. Moe faces different circumstances than Mr. Wall did, including the fact that Mr. Wall overlapped with the Liberal government in Ottawa for just over two years.

Alberta and Saskatchewan

“Alberta and Saskatchewan are, on the fundamentals, on the same page,” Mr. Leis said. “Most provinces are now on that page as well, because it’s gotten to be such an extreme, dysfunctional relationship between the provinces and the federal government.”

The two provinces could cooperate in many ways to “increase their autonomous position in the Federation,” Mr. Navarro-Génie said.

But Mr. Moe is in a better position to fight some fights than Ms. Smith, said Mr. Navarro-Génie and Mr. Leis.

(L) United Conservative Party Leader Danielle Smith in Calgary, Alta., on May 29, 2023. (The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh); (R) Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe speaks during the leaders' debate at the Provincial Archives in Regina on Oct. 14, 2020. The Canadian Press/Michael Bell

An example is the fight for parental rights. Mr. Moe announced legislation in August that requires teachers to obtain parents’ permission before using different pronouns and names for students transitioning genders.

Though New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs led this move with his trail-blazing legislation, effective July 1, Mr. Moe again took the fight to a new level after a court imposed an injunction to halt the proposed legislation. Mr. Moe pre-emptively said he would use the notwithstanding clause—a controversial tool used to override any judicial challenges to legislation based on the federal charter. Quebec has often used it to maintain its provincial autonomy.

Mr. Moe’s government passed the legislation on Oct. 20.

Ms. Smith stressed that parental rights are a “fundamental core principle” of her government during the second day of her early November United Conservative Party convention, which featured many policy resolutions related to the topic. But she did not commit to legislation.

Ms. Smith is less socially conservative than Mr. Moe, said Mr. Navarro-Génie. But it’s also that her political footing is less stable than Mr. Moe’s, both commentators said.

“Moe’s government has a pretty strong level of support in the province. And I think, in Danielle Smith’s case, she is developing stronger support—but with the last election, it was remarkably close,” Mr. Leis said. “And so I think that there is a somewhat different style there that is probably reflected in both their personalities [and] that reality.”

No premier since Ralph Klein left office in 2006 has served two full terms, Mr. Navarro-Génie noted. If Ms. Smith wants to stay, he said, “she’s going to have to keep her ear really close to the ground. And the media here plays a significant role in that.”

Media in the province can be especially unforgiving, he said, and national media seem more likely to go after Ms. Smith than Mr. Moe, as they tend to be more critical of Alberta in general.

But Mr. Moe has his challenges with the media as well, Mr. Leis said. He thinks Mr. Moe has done well within his province, with economic investment policies and more. But those stories “are not really told within the media,” Mr. Leis said. Saskatchewan remains in a strong economic position right now, Mr. Leis and Mr. Navarro-Génie said, and this is part of what allows Mr. Moe to be a strong voice on the national political stage now.

Saskatchewan ‘Punches Above Its Weight’

Saskatchewan is a relatively small province—population about 1.2 million—but both Mr. Navarro-Génie and Mr. Leis used the same phrasing to describe its economic power: “Saskatchewan punches above its weight.”

“If you look at per capita GDP, Saskatchewan is one of the wealthier provinces now, and this is a complete contrast with years ago,” Mr. Leis said. “Saskatchewan is, frankly, one of the leading stars in the Canadian Federation now.”

Its wealth makes it less reliant on the federal government, Mr. Leis said.

Mr. Moe has the economic and political conditions, Mr. Navarro-Génie said.

“Moe is fairly attuned to the political and the social mood in his province,” he said. “Let’s not forget Saskatchewan is the only province in the country that does not have a single Trudeau Liberal member of Parliament. And so those things, I think, go in tandem—the premier’s attitude, and, of course, the mood of the people of Saskatchewan.”