ANALYSIS: NDP’s Changed Stance on Carbon Tax Reflects Split Between Progressive and Working-Class Concerns

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh speaks to reporters on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Nov. 21, 2023. The Canadian Press/Spencer Colby

The NDP’s change in stance on the federal carbon tax signals that the party is caught between voters wanting progressive climate change policies and working-class people impacted by the policies, say several political science professors. They say this has forced the party to distance itself from the increasingly unpopular Liberals it had partnered with.

“The NDP is in an interesting position when it comes to environmental policy, because on one hand they have a lot of supporters that are staunch environmentalists, and on the other they have supporters in industries affected by carbon prices,” said Daniel Westlake, a political studies professor at the University of Saskatchewan.

“The NDP has to navigate a careful path on these issues that hold the two sets of voters together.”

The New Democrats have shifted from their earlier stance as longtime supporters of the carbon tax, which they even campaigned on during the 2019 election. The party voted in favour of a Conservative motion on April 10 calling for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to hold a summit on the carbon tax with the premiers.

The party had said in recent months that it did not want to see the carbon tax hiked on April 1 amid cost-of-living challenges facing Canadians, but it had not gone against the tax as a whole.

However, on April 11, Mr. Singh said he was more supportive of an industrial price on carbon than climate policies that are “letting working families bear the cost of climate change while big polluters make bigger and bigger profits.”

Mr. Singh’s comments came as debate rages in Parliament about whether the carbon tax is worsening Canada’s cost-of-living crisis, and a week after the federal tax went up from $65 per tonne of greenhouse gas emissions to $80.

The Liberals have repeatedly claimed that most Canadian households will receive more in rebates than they pay out in the carbon tax, while the Conservatives argue the tax is leaving households worse off.

A 2023 PBO report said Ottawa’s carbon tax would result in a “net loss” in 2024–25 for most Canadian households even after federal rebates. The average net loss ranges from $377 for those in Newfoundland and Labrador to $911 for those in Alberta.

Mr. Trudeau on April 12 said he didn’t understand why the NDP was “pulling back” support for the carbon price and “from the fight against climate change.” Mr. Singh later said his party’s position on the tax ”is not changed“ and that its voting record made clear that ”we absolutely support a price on pollution.”

The NDP entered into a supply and confidence agreement with the Liberal Party in March 2022, a deal that will keep the Liberals in power until the rise of Parliament in June 2025, in exchange for delivering on NDP priorities like pharmacare and dental care.

Support for Carbon Tax

The NDP relies more on support from the manufacturing sector, particularly the automotive sector, than the Liberals, Mr. Westlake said. Back in 2019, when the carbon tax was just $20 per tonne, Global Automakers of Canada and the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association warned that the tax could cost automakers millions of dollars and erode the competitiveness of the sector, reported Automotive News Canada.

“In cases where the carbon price might seem unpopular, it makes sense to me that the NDP would be more hesitant on the policy than the Liberals, because the NDP is more reliant on union and manufacturing support than the Liberals,” Mr. Westlake said.

Nelson Wiseman, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, says that the New Democrats are trying to differentiate themselves from the Liberals in preparation for the next election. The latest Abacus Data poll shows the Conservatives have a commanding lead of 44 percent of the vote, compared with the Liberals at 24 percent and the NDP at 17 percent.

Conrad Winn, a political science professor at Carleton University, also says he believes Mr. Singh’s party is modifying its stance due to the carbon tax’s unpopularity. According to another recent Abacus poll, just 36 percent of respondents said they think the tax is a good policy, 44 percent viewed it as bad, and 20 percent were unsure.

“In some respects, he’s like every politician,” Mr. Winn said of Mr. Singh. “The wind is favouring Conservatives and not favouring Liberals at all. Probably what’s going through his mind is survival.”

NDP MPs Leaving Party

On April 4, three of the NDP’s 24 MPs announced they would not be seeking re-election. NDP MPs Charlie Angus, Carol Hughes, and Rachel Blaney all made the announcement on the same day. A week earlier, MP Daniel Blaikie had announced he would resign at the end of March to work with Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew.

Mr. Westlake said the reason for the departure of so many MPs may have been a “mix of things.” He said Mr. Angus, who has been an MP for 20 years, likely just wanted to retire, but the other MPs may be leaving because they believe it will be difficult to win their seats in the upcoming election.

“There is always the chance that certain MPs want to move on to other opportunities and do not see much more chance for advancement beyond what they have achieved to this point with the NDP,” he said. “Of course, it is impossible to know for sure why an MP is retiring without being in their inner circle.”

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre suggested in a post on X on April 4 that NDP MPs are “jumping off Jagmeet’s ship before going down in defeat.”

While Mr. Winn rejected this idea, he said MPs are “clearly not inspired by the leadership of the NDP” and are “demoralized, probably, by the leadership of the Liberals.”