A Tory MP has said that backing the prime minister’s new immigration plan is a “last chance saloon,” and a prominent pollster has warned that unless the Tories “get serious” on immigration, they could be heading for a historic defeat.
A resolute Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has vowed to press ahead with the contentious Rwanda asylum scheme despite facing fierce opposition within his own party. The Tory leader, navigating a potential parliamentary battle, made a plea to the Labour Party on Thursday, acknowledging the pivotal role it plays in the fate of his proposed legislation.
Daniel Kawczynski, Conservative MP for Shrewsbury, told The Epoch Times that despite holding “reservations” about Rwanda, he felt that there was “no other alternative” but to vote for the prime minister’s bill.
“We are in the last chance saloon. The electorate are fuming about these criminal gangs. I have my own personal reservations about Rwanda,” said Mr. Kawczynski, adding that he had relayed his concerns to former Home Secretary Suella Braverman in the summer.
Mr. Kawczynski continued: “There is no other alternative. I would have liked them to have had to give us a choice, a ‘menu’ for us to have a debate. Do we go for Ascension Island, where we control totally everything that goes on? And it’s within our jurisdiction, it’s British territory. Or do we risk sending these people to an African country which during my lifetime has had a sort of ethnic cleansing? Massacres? But they haven’t done that.”
“I wouldn’t have chosen it, but I’m going to back it. We’ve got to back it, because if we don’t send a signal to these criminal gangs, then we’re going to lose the next election. Then the socialists will get in, and then the situation will be 10 times as bad as it is now.”
In an emergency press conference on Thursday, Mr. Sunak challenged Labour, saying: “The real question, when it comes to all these votes, is for the Labour Party. So the real question when it comes to Parliament … what are the Labour Party going to do about this vote?”
Warnings of ‘Historic’ Election Defeat
Prominent academic and director of PeoplePolling, Matt Goodwin, delivered a stark warning about the possibility of the next election being a “historic” defeat for the Tories.Speaking to The Epoch Times, Mr. Goodwin said, “The blunt reality is unless the Conservative Party gets serious about stopping illegal migration, establishing a third country deterrent, and bringing down legal migration, then it’s not just finished at the next election, but it’s on course for a heavy and perhaps historic defeat.”
He added, “If you look at 2019 Conservative Party voters, immigration—depending on what poll you look at—is either their second top concern or their overriding priority. They’re looking for a Conservative Party that will deliver on its 2019 promise to lower overall numbers. Not send net migration to unprecedented new heights.”
Alp Mehmet, chairman of Migration Watch, echoed those concerns, telling The Epoch Times via text: “The main message to take from Robert Jenrick’s resignation is that the legislation meant to get the Rwanda plan past the courts, which is about to be introduced in Parliament, won’t work. In other words, the Rwanda plan is going nowhere.”
The government is racing to push emergency legislation through Parliament, seeking approval for MPs and peers to declare Rwanda as a safe destination for asylum seekers. However, Tory hardliners may seek to bolster the bill, advocating for measures that could effectively override international law.
Ms. Braverman, a vocal critic of the prime minister, declared on BBC Radio 4’s “Today” program that the bill is destined to fail. She expressed concerns that the legislation, even with minor adjustments, would not prevent legal challenges that could block flights and potentially disrupt the system for years.
Another blow to Mr. Sunak’s proposal came with Mr. Jenrick’s resignation, who deemed the legislation inadequate and resigned just hours after its publication. Mr. Sunak responded with a mini-reshuffle, appointing Michael Tomlinson as illegal migration minister and Tom Pursglove as legal migration minister.
Grassroots Call to Be ‘Bold’
Those in the grassroots of the Tory party are mixed in their approval for the scheme, with David Moore, senior political analyst at the socially conservative Orthodox Conservatives Group think tank telling The Epoch Times, “We have to be bold, hold our Conservative banner high, and leave the ECHR [European Convention on Human Rights] and reform the institutions blocking the democratic mandate.”Mr. Moore added: “As Suella reiterated in her barnstorming speech in the Commons [on Wednesday], the Conservatives have a monumental challenge ahead. Despite a weak Labour leader that admires Thatcher for cheap votes, we are yet to prove ourselves on immigration.
“Despite every lever available to tear down the Blairite institutions backed by the NGOs and their unaccountable international legal instruments, we are not using them.”
David Campbell Bannerman, chairman of the Conservative Democratic Organisation, a group committed to making the Tory selection process more democratic, also expressed his scepticism about the Rwanda asylum scheme.
Speaking to The Epoch Times, he added that he would be waiting for the outcome of legal evaluations on the scheme from the pro-Brexit European Recovery Group’s “Star Chamber,” made up of prominent legal experts and MPs on the right of the party.
Mr. Campbell Bannerman questioned the legislation’s viability and outlined Mr. Sunak’s challenges, stating that “Sunak is clearly in great difficulty.” He urgently called for a strategic “game plan” to regain trust, proposing a potential turnaround with a new leader and authentic Conservative policies, aiming to reclaim Reform-leaning Tories who may have distanced themselves.
“If a new leader with real Conservative policies is brought in, there could be a big turnaround and many Reform-leaning Tories come back to us,” he said.
A recent poll indicated a significant shift in Tory voters’ attitudes, with 15 percent of 2019 Conservative supporters planning to back Reform UK. The data, produced by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, suggested that disenfranchised voters were being wooed by the prospect of Nigel Farage’s old party, which is positioned to the right of the Tories on key policies.
Jack Ross, the CEO of Turning Point UK, a grassroots pressure group also on the right of the Tory caucus, affirmed his support for the prime minister’s actions, saying that Mr. Sunak’s immigration plan was “a step in the right direction.”
Speaking to The Epoch Times, he added: “The establishment has been reluctant to tackle uncontrolled immigration for over two decades as they appear to be more concerned with political correctness than standing up for Britain’s interests. Hopefully we are seeing the beginning of a culture change in government towards what the electorate actually wants.”
Critics Call for Sunak’s Removal
Mr. Sunak’s critics have begun to expect his removal, with former Tory Andrew Bridgen, now an MP for the Reclaim Party, telling The Epoch Times: “I expect a vote of no confidence and a leadership challenge. I would urge potential leadership candidates to adopt the policies I and Reclaim have stood up for.”Mr. Bridgen also outlined a set of policy recommendations which he believes would help to restore the Conservative Party’s identity. Mr. Bridgen called for the UK to exit the ECHR and any treaties hindering border control.
He also advocates halting the mRNA vaccine rollout, which he termed “experimental,” ceasing net zero initiatives, withdrawing from the World Health Organisation (WHO) post-pandemic agreement, and stopping the perceived sexualization of children in schools along with gender ideology indoctrination.
Mr. Bridgen argued that embracing these policies would align the Conservative Party with traditional values and reconnect with a disenchanted support base, reflecting internal diversity within the party.
Tory insiders have been dismissive over the possibility of enough letters going into the 1922 Committee to trigger a vote of no-confidence in the prime minister, although some have said that they do not wish to see Mr. Sunak in Number 10 going into the general election.
Reaction to the proposed legislation on Rwanda and current political turbulence underscore the deep divides within the Tory party and the challenges Mr. Sunak faces in navigating a path forward on immigration reform. The fate of the scheme and its impact on the Conservative Party landscape remains uncertain, with a potential rebellion on the government’s hands from what many are now calling Ms. Braverman’s wing of the party.
