Polling maps in recent months have shown swathes of blue across most of the country, except for major cities like Montreal and Toronto where ridings generally looked solid red.
This tapestry changed in the early hours of June 25, when a lone blue square emerged from the core of the traditional Liberal stronghold of Toronto.
The Toronto–St.Paul’s riding, held by the Liberals for over three decades, switched to Conservative by 590 votes.
The surprise has rocked the political landscape and speculation is rife about what unfolds next.
In 2021, the Liberals got double the votes of the Conservatives in the riding. This year, the Liberals were expecting a tighter contest, but not defeat. They would have interpreted even a close win as a sign of troubles ahead.
National polls in recent months have shown the Liberals dropping 20 points behind the Conservatives, who would have been satisfied with losing the byelection but improving their standing over the last general election results.
Instead, the unexpected Tory win has turned into a major reckoning for the Liberals.
Taking Stock
Liberal leaders were not too keen on publicly taking stock of the electoral loss. They said they would continue on their current path of supporting Canadians through federal programs and investments.Mr. Trudeau delivered a brief statement on the byelection during a nature conservation announcement in B.C. on June 25, but he didn’t take questions from reporters.
“This was obviously not the result we wanted, but I want to be clear that I hear people’s concerns and frustrations,” he said. “These are not easy times and it’s clear that I and my entire Liberal team have much more work to do to deliver tangible real progress that Canadians across the country can see and feel.”
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said she “certainly” believes Mr. Trudeau can stay on as leader into the next election.
“Our whole government is focused on delivering for Canada and Canadians. That’s what we’re going to continue to do,” she said during an announcement in Toronto on June 25.
‘In Control’
Despite the shock of losing the Toronto–St.Paul’s stronghold, some political observers do not see the development as significantly altering the Liberal Party.“Internal pressure or not, short of a complete caucus revolt, there’s nothing that will push him out of this job,” he told The Epoch Times in an interview.
Mr. Trudeau will lead the Liberals in the next election if he wants to, says Mr. Loerts, and his intention will become clearer in the coming days.
Mr. Loerts says the prime minister could make a decision around Canada Day, but if he stays on message “deep into July,” this would mean he’s going to run in the next election.
Stephen LeDrew, a former Liberal Party president, says he believes Mr. Trudeau will stay put and weather the storm.
“He’s just going to carry on because I know, as I’ve been there, it’s a lot better to be in power than to be in opposition,” says Mr. LeDrew, who served as party president from 1998 to 2003 during the Jean Chrétien era.
“Why call an election early, or why resign if you’re going to be out of power? As long as the NDP keeps him going, he’s going to be in power for another 16 months.”
Mr. LeDrew also doesn’t see the byelection results having any impact on internal Liberal Party politics. He noted how the party doesn’t have a mechanism to call for a leadership review during a mandate.
“So what’s the party doing? Probably nothing. It can’t, it has nothing going for it.”
Although some Liberal MPs announced recently that they won’t run in the next election, Mr. LeDrew doesn’t expect a larger movement of members quitting.
“For many, many MPs it’s the best job they’ve ever had. It’s the best job they'll ever have,” he said.
Liberal MP John McKay said in recent days he wouldn’t run again and his colleague Andy Fillmore said he was leaving federal politics.
“MPs will go back to their ridings and try to gauge the lack of support, and it’s going to be pretty depressing for a lot of MPs, I dare say,” says Mr. LeDrew. “But really, the people who can’t read the writing on the wall will come back and say everything is hunky dory.”
The former Liberal Party president said the timing of the byelection after the House of Commons had risen for the summer could be beneficial for Mr. Trudeau and his MPs, because there will be less scrutiny from the opposition in question period and reporters will be on holiday.
