ANALYSIS: Liberals Hit With Another Byelection Upset as Opposition Parties See Little Motivation to Change Strategy

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet (R) and newly elected candidate Louis-Philippe Sauve smile as they speak to the media in Montreal on Sept. 17, 2024. The Bloc Quebecois won the Montreal Liberal stronghold riding of LaSalle-Emard-Verdun after an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP. The Canadian Press/Christinne Muschi

The leaders of the Bloc Québécois and NDP expressed satisfaction with their respective victories in the Sept. 16 byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg, but neither signalled a desire to expedite the fall of the minority Liberal government. The Liberals, meanwhile, have suffered the loss of another stronghold with the defeat in Montreal.

Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet said his party is “extremely happy” and “honoured” to win the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun riding, defeating the Liberals in their stronghold by a few hundred votes.

Blanchet repeated what he had said in days prior to the vote with regard to his party’s intentions with the minority government. “I will be eager to go into an election as soon as I get the impression that the Liberals won’t be inclined to give us what we want,” he told reporters on Sept. 17.

The Bloc said it will try to make gains from the Liberals on issues like support for seniors in exchange for backing on confidence votes. Blanchet said there have been no discussions with the Liberals yet.

While wanting to make gains, Blanchet doesn’t give the government much time, saying the NDP had pulled the “grenade pin” by breaking the supply-and-confidence agreement that kept the minority Liberal government in power.

“When you pull the pin on a grenade, it will blow up sooner or later,” he said.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has also not changed his tune after his party won the byelection in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood-Transcona, although with a much smaller margin compared to the 2021 election.

“As we said before, it’s going to remain the same,” Singh said when asked by reporters whether the results had changed his political calculations.

“We’re going to look at each vote that comes before us in the House. We’re going to take that vote very seriously,” he said on Sept. 17.

Preliminary results show the NDP won Elmwood-Transcona with 48.1 percent of the vote. The Tories finished second with 44 percent.

It was a small pullback from 2021 in the NDP stronghold, when Daniel Blaikie had won with 49.7 percent. Meanwhile, the Tories made big gains by climbing almost 16 percent.

While the NDP finished third in a close contest in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, the party increased its vote share by over 6 percent.

Singh said the results have shown that “people are done with the Liberals” and that the NDP can be competitive against the Conservatives.

‘Take Advantage’

Conservatives, while faring much better, didn’t pull an upset in Elmwood-Transcona like they did in Toronto-St.Paul’s in June. They also slightly increased their vote share in Montreal by 4.1 percent.

While they have been less competitive in these ridings, national polls have put them way ahead of other parties over an extended period.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had said he would call a non-confidence vote at the earliest opportunity after the NDP broke its deal with the Liberals, but he needs the support of other opposition parties to pull down the government.

“Obviously, the Conservatives want to have an election as soon as possible in order to take advantage of the current environment,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research, told The Epoch Times in an interview.

The pollster says it’s too early to tell whether the NDP will change its strategy.

“If the NDP numbers start moving up, who knows, maybe the NDP will be hot to do an election,” he said.

Kevin Gaudet from BrightPoint Strategy also says the NDP did “fairly well” in the byelections and wonders if its future trending could change its calculus.

“The big question mark is, will the results of the Bloc and the NDP cause the NDP and the Bloc caucuses to think that they’re safe, their seats are safe enough that they’re willing to go to an election?”

A ‘Bit More Energy’

Stephen LeDrew, who served as Liberal Party president from 1998 to 2003, says the Bloc has “a little bit more energy in its steps” with its victory, “so they may be not as reticent to go into an election as they otherwise might have.”

He doesn’t see the NDP wanting an election and says that pulling out of its deal with the governing Liberals was more a long-term move to reposition itself before the next planned election.

“It’s a start of a long-term strategy for the NDP to distance itself from this very unpopular government,” he said in an interview.

Ultimately, LeDrew doesn’t think a vote of non-confidence will pass, given how different opposition parties need to come together.

Liberals currently have 154 seats, the Conservatives 119, the Bloc 33, the NDP 25, and the Greens two. There are also three Independent MPs, including one former Conservative, one former Liberal, and Kevin Vuong, who was dropped as a candidate by the Liberals during the 2021 campaign.

Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, also doubts the minority government will fall.

“That’s not happening unless there’s a really big scandal,” he told The Epoch Times in an interview.

“MPs don’t want to have an election if they don’t have to have an election. There’s always a threat they’re going to be defeated,” he said. Even for MPs running in safe Bloc seats in northern or rural Quebec, campaigning is hard work, Wiseman said.

“You'd rather be just sitting in Parliament or sitting at a committee meeting.”

Matthew Horwood contributed to this report.