ANALYSIS: How a Non-Conservative Manitoba May Impact the Prairies vs. Liberal Ottawa Dynamic

Manitoba NDP leader Wab Kinew delivers his victory speech and wishes his mother, Kathi Avery Kinew, a happy birthday, after winning the Manitoba provincial election in Winnipeg on Oct. 3, 2023. The Canadian Press/David Lipnowski

The election of Wab Kinew’s NDP government in Manitoba means there will no longer be three conservative Western premiers.

In the past, the conservative premiers of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta have presented a united front to the federal government on issues like rising crime rates and gun control. Manitoba also mounted its own opposition to the federal carbon tax.

However, David Leis of the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, which was founded in Winnipeg, said the more left-wing policies of the NDP will lead to a certain amount of tension.

“They will be in the classic tension between the environmental, social, ideological posture,” said Mr. Leis. 

He said much depends on how pragmatic the new NDP government turns out to be.

“Manitoba is one of the most dependent provinces in Canada on federal transfer payments,” Mr. Leis said, and while the new government has made a lot of promises about fixing health care, finding the money will be a challenge.

“The dilemma is that they did not really have any significant economic plan,“ he said, noting promises the NDP made ”in terms of not only increasing the size of state health care but also trying to somehow improve Manitoba’s affordability. So it’s a very tough circle to square.”

Western premiers attend a news conference after meeting in Whistler, B.C., on June 27, 2023. (L–R) Northwest Territories Premier Caroline Cochrane, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, Yukon Premier Ranj Pillai, British Columbia Premier David Eby, Manitoba Premier Heather Stefanson, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, and Nunavut Premier P.J. Akeeagok. The Canadian Press/Darryl Dyck

On the other hand, the three Prairie provinces have a lot in common, whether it’s a common geography or cultural ties.

Both Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith were quick to post congratulations to premier-designate Kinew.

“I look forward to continuing the collaboration between our two provinces as we address the challenges facing western Canada,” said Mr. Moe on X.

“Alberta is dedicated to fostering a constructive working relationship with all Manitobans, contributing to the mutual success of our prairie provinces,” Ms. Smith posted on X.

Political studies professor Malcolm Bird with the University of Winnipeg believes having an NDP government in Manitoba will not make a major difference in how the provinces get along, or in how they deal with various federal-provincial tensions.

“I don’t think the partisan differences between the provinces are that significant compared to what they have in common,” Mr. Bird told The Epoch Times.

“Regardless of their stripes … (they are) pretty united in what they need from the federal government,” he said.

For example, in February 2023, the Manitoba and Saskatchewan justice ministers jointly called for federal action on bail reform. It’s a concern also shared by the new NDP government.

“The NDP recognizes that crime is a really big issue for voters,” said Mr. Bird. The NDP campaign included promises on bail reform and more support for police.

“One of the things that Wab Kinew did in the campaign, … he actually went out of his way to say ‘I support police officers,’” said Mr. Bird.

Reducing Living Costs

Mr. Bird said that much like its Prairie counterparts, the NDP is looking for ways to reduce the cost of living.

“One of the things the Conservatives have done is attack the carbon tax as a way to discuss affordability and reducing grocery costs and energy costs,” he said. “So, you get two for one there—you sort of address what you see as a harmful economic tax, but you also show people you’re fighting, you’re concerned about cost-of-living issues.”

And the NDP, he said, are promising similar moves, although not identical.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives to meet with Canada's premiers in Ottawa on Feb. 7, 2023. The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick

“One of the promises was to freeze hydro rates for a year,” he said. The NDP platform also includes a promise to cut the provincial gas tax on fuel.

“So the point being to address household costs, and to be seen to be doing so.”

But there are also differences between the state of the three provinces. Mr. Bird pointed out Manitoba has significant public debt—about $30 billion, according to the province’s last budget—and an economy that is not booming.

Mr. Leis believes that many of the NDP’s promises have the potential to add to that debt.

“There’s a lot of promises that have been made that all relate to increasing the size of government, which is already about 30 percent larger than the Canadian average,” he said, adding that paying for it could require more tax hikes in a province that he says is “one of the most uncompetitive tax environments in the country.”

For most provinces, health care is the single biggest item in their budget. Mr. Kinew made improving health care the focus of the NDP campaign.

“But the problem is, he needs resources to do that, and where better to get that than the federal government?” said Mr. Bird.

Which means Manitoba will be joining other provinces pushing for more federal dollars to help pay for health care.

Other points in common include economies that are similar, though not identical.

All three Western provinces are heavily dependent on international trade, from agricultural commodities like grains and oilseeds to mining and forest products.

There are mutual agreements covering everything from the electrical grid to forest fire fighting.

And all three provinces have a long history of cooperation, such as a memorandum of understanding signed in April to establish “economic corridors” between the three provinces. The hope is that greater trade and transportation will help all three provinces grow.

“The provinces are much more united than they are divided in terms of what their demands are,“ said Mr. Bird.