ANALYSIS: How Number of MPs Not Running for Re-Election Compares to Previous Years

Then-Labour and Seniors Minister Seamus O’Regan arrives to a caucus meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on June 19, 2024. (The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick)

Like clockwork, in the months before each federal election is called, a number of MPs from each party will announce they are not running for re-election, each with his or her own particular reason. This time around, the numbers tell an interesting story.

The previous two elections saw 59 MPs in 2019 and 34 MPs in 2021 quitting or not seeking re-election by the time the writ was dropped. Of these, in 2019, 24 were from the governing Liberals, 21 were Conservatives, and 14 were NDP, and in 2021, 19 were Liberals, nine were Conservatives, and the other six were NDP, Bloc Québécois, and Independent.

This time around, more than a year before the next election, the number of MPs who have either resigned or decided not to run again already sits at 31. Among them are 21 Liberals, close to or higher than the number of Liberals not running again by election time in 2019 and 2021. Seamus O'Regan, the latest high-profile Liberal MP who said last week he won’t be running in the next election, even took the rare step of resigning from his cabinet post as labour minister.

The next election is not expected until October 2025, due to the Liberals’ supply-and-confidence agreement with the NDP that keeps the Liberals’ minority government in power until then. And it’s expected that more MPs will announce their intention not to run again closer to election time.

This trend is reminiscent of what happened in the 2015 election, which saw the Liberal Party gain a majority under Justin Trudeau and the Conservatives lose power. At that time, a total of 73 MPs quit or did not run for re-election, including 43 Conservatives, 20 New Democrats, eight Liberals, one Bloc Québécois, and one Independent.

According to Julie Simmons, an associate professor of political science at the University of Guelph, a high number of Liberal MPs choosing not to run this time around can likely be attributed to what the polls are showing, with the Liberals trailing the Tories by large margins.

“Some Liberals might be doing the calculus and thinking, ‘If I have a relatively safe Liberal seat, unless something really unexpected happens to turn things around here, the odds of me winning are much lower than they were in the previous election,’” she said.

But while re-election chances and the chance of forming government are a major factor, there could be other reasons too.

Reasons Given

MPs not seeking re-election or quitting have cited different reasons for their decisions. Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith said in his Substack in February that he would be stepping down to stay closer to home, to his family. Liberal MP Michael McLeod said in July that he wanted to spend more time at home and focus on his grandchildren.

Other MPs have cited more complex reasons for wanting to bow out. Liberal MP Pam Damoff said in May that the tone of politics and public discourse have “deteriorated significantly” and noted a “lack of respectful dialogue” both in Parliament and in public. She said the “hyper-partisan nature of politics” was not an environment she saw herself serving in and the threats and misogyny she experienced have left her afraid to go out in in public as a politician.

While Liberal MP Ken McDonald said in July he would not run for re-election due to a desire to travel less and spend more time with family, he has voted against the Liberals’ carbon tax on several occasions. When Liberal MP Wayne Long—who is also not running in 2025—sent an email to caucus in June saying the prime minister should step down, Mr. McDonald responded “well said.”

According to Ms. Simmons, MPs may not want to run again because they feel they have addressed the issues important to them while in office, or they may have become eligible for their pension and believe “putting additional years in as a member of Parliament will not affect that.”

But she also said it’s a “fair assumption” that MPs may claim to be leaving for more personal reasons when they are actually concerned about their party’s popularity and believe their chances of winning re-election are slim. She pointed out that this happened in the 1993 election, which saw a “mass exodus at the end of the Conservative era.”

That election, in which the Liberals won a majority government and the Progressive Conservatives fell to fifth place in a stunning upset, also saw a total of 50 Progressive Conservative MPs not run for re-election compared to just six Liberals and six NDP. “In hindsight, it was predictable in some ways because the Conservatives were reduced to two members of Parliament in that election,” Ms. Simmons said.

Other Factors

Nelson Wiseman, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, agrees there is a trend of MPs deciding not to run again before elections where their party is expected to lose. However, he said he believes many of the MPs this time are not running for a different reason.

“A lot of those people that got elected [before the 1984 and 2015 elections] had now been serving for quite a long time. So it’s partly a function—not just what happened in the last election, it’s what happened from the first election they got elected in,” he said.

Mr. Wiseman said many MPs will not run for re-election because they have become resigned to the fact that they will never get into cabinet, while others were first elected in old age and simply want to retire. “Some decide, ‘I don’t like the job, but I’ve worked now long enough I get the pension,’” he said.

Mr. Wiseman pointed to the example of NDP MP Charlie Angus, who was first elected in 2004 and is now 61 years old. Mr. Angus announced in April that he wouldn’t run for re-election, along with fellow MPs Carol Hughes and Rachel Blaney.

However, Mr. Wiseman predicted that many more Liberal and NDP MPs will decide to step down between now and the next election, as the polls currently show many will lose their seats if the election were held today. He said this is also why comparatively fewer Conservative MPs have announced they will not run again.

“They can smell victory, and a lot of them think, ‘Maybe I’ll get a cabinet position or be chairing a parliamentary committee, or I‘ll be a parliamentary secretary,’” he said.

List of MPs Who Quit or Are Not Seeking Re-election

Liberal:

1. Omar Alghabra (former transportation minister)
2. Marc Garneau (former foreign affairs minister)
3. Carolyn Bennett (former mental health and addictions minister)
4. David Lametti (former justice minister)
5. Seamus O'Regan (former labour minister)
6. Anthony Rota (former House Speaker)
7. Helena Jaczek
8. Joyce Murray
9. Wayne Long
10. Lloyd Longfield
11. Emmanuel Dubourg
12. Ken Hardie
13. Michael McLeod
14. Ken McDonald
15. Tony Van Bynen
16. Pam Damoff
17. John McKay
18. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
19. Sven Spengemann
20. John Aldag
21. Andy Fillmore

Conservative:

1. Ron Liepert
2. Colin Carrie
3. Ed Fast
4. Gary Vidal
5. Robert Kitchen
6. Dave MacKenzie
7. Candice Bergen
8. Bob Benzen
9. Erin O'Toole

NDP:

1. Richard Cannings
2. Randall Garrison
3. Carol Hughes
4. Rachel Blaney
5. Charlie Angus
6. Daniel Blaikie

Independent:

1. Alain Rayes