Like clockwork, in the months before each federal election is called, a number of MPs from each party will announce they are not running for re-election, each with his or her own particular reason. This time around, the numbers tell an interesting story.
The next election is not expected until October 2025, due to the Liberals’ supply-and-confidence agreement with the NDP that keeps the Liberals’ minority government in power until then. And it’s expected that more MPs will announce their intention not to run again closer to election time.
This trend is reminiscent of what happened in the 2015 election, which saw the Liberal Party gain a majority under Justin Trudeau and the Conservatives lose power. At that time, a total of 73 MPs quit or did not run for re-election, including 43 Conservatives, 20 New Democrats, eight Liberals, one Bloc Québécois, and one Independent.
According to Julie Simmons, an associate professor of political science at the University of Guelph, a high number of Liberal MPs choosing not to run this time around can likely be attributed to what the polls are showing, with the Liberals trailing the Tories by large margins.
“Some Liberals might be doing the calculus and thinking, ‘If I have a relatively safe Liberal seat, unless something really unexpected happens to turn things around here, the odds of me winning are much lower than they were in the previous election,’” she said.
Reasons Given
MPs not seeking re-election or quitting have cited different reasons for their decisions. Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith said in his Substack in February that he would be stepping down to stay closer to home, to his family. Liberal MP Michael McLeod said in July that he wanted to spend more time at home and focus on his grandchildren.According to Ms. Simmons, MPs may not want to run again because they feel they have addressed the issues important to them while in office, or they may have become eligible for their pension and believe “putting additional years in as a member of Parliament will not affect that.”
But she also said it’s a “fair assumption” that MPs may claim to be leaving for more personal reasons when they are actually concerned about their party’s popularity and believe their chances of winning re-election are slim. She pointed out that this happened in the 1993 election, which saw a “mass exodus at the end of the Conservative era.”
Other Factors
Nelson Wiseman, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, agrees there is a trend of MPs deciding not to run again before elections where their party is expected to lose. However, he said he believes many of the MPs this time are not running for a different reason.“A lot of those people that got elected [before the 1984 and 2015 elections] had now been serving for quite a long time. So it’s partly a function—not just what happened in the last election, it’s what happened from the first election they got elected in,” he said.
Mr. Wiseman said many MPs will not run for re-election because they have become resigned to the fact that they will never get into cabinet, while others were first elected in old age and simply want to retire. “Some decide, ‘I don’t like the job, but I’ve worked now long enough I get the pension,’” he said.
Mr. Wiseman pointed to the example of NDP MP Charlie Angus, who was first elected in 2004 and is now 61 years old. Mr. Angus announced in April that he wouldn’t run for re-election, along with fellow MPs Carol Hughes and Rachel Blaney.
However, Mr. Wiseman predicted that many more Liberal and NDP MPs will decide to step down between now and the next election, as the polls currently show many will lose their seats if the election were held today. He said this is also why comparatively fewer Conservative MPs have announced they will not run again.
List of MPs Who Quit or Are Not Seeking Re-election
Liberal:- Omar Alghabra (former transportation minister)
- Marc Garneau (former foreign affairs minister)
- Carolyn Bennett (former mental health and addictions minister)
- David Lametti (former justice minister)
- Seamus O'Regan (former labour minister)
- Anthony Rota (former House Speaker)
- Helena Jaczek
- Joyce Murray
- Wayne Long
- Lloyd Longfield
- Emmanuel Dubourg
- Ken Hardie
- Michael McLeod
- Ken McDonald
- Tony Van Bynen
- Pam Damoff
- John McKay
- Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
- Sven Spengemann
- John Aldag
- Andy Fillmore
- Ron Liepert
- Colin Carrie
- Ed Fast
- Gary Vidal
- Robert Kitchen
- Dave MacKenzie
- Candice Bergen
- Bob Benzen
- Erin O'Toole
- Richard Cannings
- Randall Garrison
- Carol Hughes
- Rachel Blaney
- Charlie Angus
- Daniel Blaikie
- Alain Rayes