ANALYSIS: Could Immigration Feature Prominently in Next Election? Minister Miller Thinks So

Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, rises during question period in the House of Commons on June 4, 2024. (The Canadian Press/Spencer Colby)

It wasn’t long ago that discussing the topic of immigration was politically taboo, but it could feature prominently the next time Canadians go to the polls, according to the man in charge of overseeing the matter in Ottawa.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller told Reuters this week he sees immigration as becoming “a top issue, if not the top issue, in the next election.”

“I’m not naive enough to think Canada is immune to the waves of anti-immigrant sentiment,” he said, adding Canadians want an immigration system that “has a lot of welcoming aspects we’ve been proud of, but it’s got to make sense.”

Attitudes toward rising immigration have soured in recent years as Canadians deal with rising housing prices and general affordability issues.

A Leger poll for the Association for Canadian Studies in July found that 60 percent of respondents believe immigration levels—which are the highest on record in this century—are too high.

The perspective that immigration could become a major electoral issue, however, does not currently correspond with what the two largest federal political parties have been focusing on.

The Conservatives have taken a solid lead in the polls with a message centred on affordability and fighting crime, and have repeatedly called for a “carbon tax election” to be held. While the party has criticized how some immigration programs are handled, it hasn’t been the Tories’ main focus.

The Liberal government has been focused on promoting its investments in social programs, saying they’re needed to support Canadians amid cost-of-living pressures.

A key aspect of affordability that both parties have spent much energy on is housing, and that’s an area where immigration has a sizeable impact.

Most of the battle has been around supply, and on who is most likely to get the desperately needed new homes built. But slowing population growth can prove a much faster and easier remedy to solve the people-per-residence equation.

Even major financial institutions have weighed in on the problem of current immigration levels, with the National Bank describing Canada as being in a “population trap” for the first time. The phenomenon usually takes place within emerging economies where living standards cannot keep up with population growth.

Data released by Statistics Canada in July show 6.8 percent of the country’s population of 41 million is composed of non-permanent residents. The number has more than doubled since 2021, going from 1.3 million non-permanent residents to nearly 2.8 million earlier this year.

Positions

If banks have been outspoken, the taboo around questioning immigration levels in political circles has only slowly started dissipating in the last year.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has not said what his party’s immigration targets would be, but he said they would be mathematically tied to the availability of housing, services, and jobs.

As the next election approaches, if the Conservatives wish to address the issue in their platform, they will have to flesh out what their policy will be and if they have any targets of their own. In recent years, Ottawa has systematically increased the target number of new permanent residents it seeks to welcome, but its latest plan capped the number at 500,000 in 2025 and 2026.

There has been no talk so far of reducing the number of new permanent residents, with the government instead focusing on temporary immigration. All aspects have seen increased flux and other issues, from foreign students to asylum seekers.

Conservative MP and immigration critic Tom Kmiec said in comments provided to The Epoch Times that the government has “broken” the immigration system.

Minister Miller said in January that the system is “out of control” and “a bit of a mess.”

New Measures

Under Miller’s watch, a two-year cap on international students was announced in January and a first-ever cap on temporary immigration was announced in March.

Ottawa has also recently published new regulations to crack down on education establishments that do not keep track of international’s students enrolment. Foreigners have increasingly used the route of obtaining student visas to afterwards seek asylum.

Miller told Reuters this week his government will announce new measures to scale back temporary immigration.

“The era of uncapped programs to come into this country is quickly coming to an end. This is a big shift. You can’t just slam on the brakes and expect it to stop immediately,” he said.

In response to Reuters asking if it was a mistake to allow the rapid growth of temporary residents, Miller said “every government makes mistakes,” but noted the labour shortages Canada faced post-COVID.

Miller also said plans to give status to illegal immigrants, which he supports, will not go ahead.

The minister told CBC in June that Canada has between 300,000 and 600,000 illegal immigrants, and that the Liberal caucus is divided on whether to grant them a pathway to residency.

His department said earlier this year it is continuing to “explore options to regularize certain individuals without immigration status who have been contributing socially and economically to Canadian communities.”

A broad regularization won’t happen before the next election, Miller said, although it could happen in specific sectors.

An argument made by the government to keep temporary workers level high has been to help build new houses amid labour shortages in the construction sector. One Immigration Canada program has sought to help grant status to undocumented workers in that sector in the Greater Toronto Area.

Reuters and The Canadian Press contributed to this report.