ANALYSIS: Could Immigration Feature Prominently in Next Election? Minister Miller Thinks So

Immigration Minister Marc Miller rises during question period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on June 4, 2024. The Canadian Press/Spencer Colby

It wasn’t long ago that discussing the topic of immigration was politically taboo, but it could feature prominently the next time Canadians go to the polls, according to the man in charge of overseeing the matter in Ottawa.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller told Reuters on Aug. 1 that he sees immigration as becoming “a top issue, if not the top issue, in the next election.”

“I’m not naive enough to think Canada is immune to the waves of anti-immigrant sentiment,” he said, adding that Canadians want an immigration system that “has a lot of welcoming aspects we’ve been proud of, but it’s got to make sense.”

Attitudes toward rising immigration have soured in recent years as Canadians deal with rising housing prices and general affordability issues.

A Leger poll for the Association for Canadian Studies in July indicated that 60 percent of respondents believe there are too many immigrants, the highest level of concern with immigration levels on record in this century.

The perspective that immigration could become a major electoral issue, however, does not currently correspond with what the two largest federal political parties have been focusing on.

The Conservatives have taken a solid lead in the polls with a message centred on affordability and fighting crime, and they’ve repeatedly called for a “carbon tax election” to be held. While the party has criticized how some immigration programs are handled, it hasn’t been the Tories’ main focus.

The Liberal government has been focused on promoting its investments in social programs, saying they’re needed to support Canadians amid cost-of-living pressures.

A key aspect of affordability that both parties have spent much energy on is housing, and that’s an area where immigration has a sizeable impact.

Most of the battle has been around supply and on which party is most likely to get the desperately needed new homes built. But slowing population growth can prove a much faster and easier remedy to solve the people-per-residence equation.

Even major financial institutions have weighed in on the problem of current immigration levels, with the National Bank describing Canada as being in a “population trap” for the first time. The phenomenon usually takes place within emerging economies where living standards cannot keep up with population growth.

Data released by Statistics Canada in July show that non-permanent residents account for 6.8 percent of the country’s population of 41 million. The number of non-permanent residents has more than doubled since 2021, going from just under 1.38 million in the fourth quarter that year to nearly 2.8 million in the second quarter of 2024.

Positions

If banks have been outspoken, the taboo around questioning immigration levels in political circles has only slowly started dissipating in the last year.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has not said what his party’s immigration targets would be, but only that they would be mathematically tied to the availability of housing, services, and jobs.

As the next election approaches, if the Conservatives wish to address the issue in their platform, they will have to flesh out what their policy and targets will be. In recent years, Ottawa has systematically increased the target number of new permanent residents it seeks to welcome, but its latest plan capped the number at 500,000 in both 2025 and 2026.

There has been no talk so far of reducing the number of new permanent residents, with the government instead focusing on temporary immigration. All aspects have seen increased flux and other issues, from foreign students to asylum-seekers.

Conservative MP and immigration critic Tom Kmiec said in comments provided to The Epoch Times that the government has “broken” the immigration system.

Minister Miller said in January that the system is “out of control” and “a bit of a mess.”

New Measures

Under Miller’s watch, a two-year cap on international students was announced in January and a first-ever cap on temporary immigration was announced in March.

Ottawa has also recently published new regulations to crack down on education establishments that do not keep track of international student enrolment. Foreigners have increasingly used the route of obtaining student visas to later seek asylum.

Miller told Reuters this week his government will announce new measures to scale back temporary immigration.

“The era of uncapped programs to come into this country is quickly coming to an end. This is a big shift. You can’t just slam on the brakes and expect it to stop immediately,” he said.

In response to Reuters asking if it was a mistake to allow the rapid growth of temporary residents, Miller said “every government makes mistakes,” but noted the labour shortages Canada faced post-COVID.

Miller also said plans to give status to illegal immigrants, which he supports, will not go ahead.

The minister told CBC in June that Canada has between 300,000 and 600,000 illegal immigrants, and that the Liberal caucus is divided on whether to grant them a pathway to residency.

His department said in February that it was continuing to “explore options to regularize certain individuals without immigration status who have been contributing socially and economically to Canadian communities.”

A broad regularization won’t happen before the next election, Miller said, although it could happen in specific sectors.

An argument made by the government to keep the level of temporary workers high has been to help build new housing amid labour shortages in the construction sector. One Immigration Canada program has sought to help grant status to undocumented workers in that sector in the Greater Toronto Area.

Reuters and The Canadian Press contributed to this report.