ANALYSIS: A Look at Next Byelections in Light of the Liberals’ Toronto-St. Paul’s Upset

The next federal byelection will be in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, after former Minister of Justice David Lametti resigned as MP in January 2024. (The Canadian Press/Justin Tang)

Reeling from a stunning byelection defeat in a Toronto stronghold, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will soon have to call a new contest in a normally safe Liberal riding.

Former Justice Minister David Lametti announced in January that he is resigning from his Montreal seat. The date to elect the new MP to represent the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun riding must be announced by July 30.

The scenario bears some similarities to the riding of Toronto–St. Paul’s, which the Liberals had held since 1993. Tories took it by 590 votes in the June 24 byelection, which was called after the resignation of former cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett.

Like Ms. Bennett, Mr. Lametti was removed from cabinet during the shuffle in July 2023.

The LaSalle–Émard–Verdun riding was created in 2015, the same year Mr. Lametti was first elected. It was made by combining parts of two ridings that had different profiles.

LaSalle–Émard was a Liberal stronghold for decades and the riding of former Prime Minister Paul Martin. It turned New Democrat in 2011 during the nationwide orange wave. Meanwhile, the other riding of Jeanne–Le Ber switched hands between the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Québécois over the years.

One thing that is almost certain is that the Conservatives will not take LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, which could be a small consolation prize for the Liberals. Their best result in the riding over the past three elections was 7.5 percent in 2021.

What could help the Liberals is a divided opposition. In 2021, the Bloc (22.1 percent) and NDP (19.4 percent) vied for second spot, while the Liberals won with 42.9 percent.

While this byelection is unlikely to produce a Toronto–St. Paul’s-level upset for the Conservatives, it will still be key to gauging the Liberals’ strength in Quebec and its hold over Montreal. The party has all but two ridings on the island, with the north shore of Laval being completely red.

Meanwhile, the NDP, which has had good fortune in the area previously, will be closely looking to see if they can fare better than in the Toronto byelection, where they had their worst result (10.9 percent) over the past three elections (16.8 percent in 2021).

Voters could see the NDP, having forged a deal to keep the minority Liberals in power, associated with the government’s record.

After the byelection is called, it will need to take place within 36 to 50 days, which puts the voting date likely somewhere in September.

Winnipeg

The next byelection after LaSalle–Émard–Verdun will take place in Winnipeg, in the riding of Elmwood–Transcona. The seat became empty after NDP MP Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to work as a senior adviser to Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew, who led the NDP to a majority government in that province’s October 2023 election.

The Liberals are unlikely to lose sleep over that contest, having been a distant third in the last two elections with under 15 percent of the votes. Mr. Blaikie ran away with the victory both times, besting the Tories by over 21 points in 2021 and 8.1 points in 2019.

Tory momentum and dissatisfaction with the NDP-supported Liberals will weigh in during the race. Adjacent ridings to Elmwood–Transcona are split between parties, with two being held by Tories, two by the Liberals, and one by the NDP.

The byelection must be called by Sept. 29, with the vote to take place possibly in November.

Coast to Coast

The first byelection of 2025 will likely be held in the Greater Vancouver Area, in the riding of Cloverdale–Langley City, where Liberal MP John Aldag resigned from his seat in late May.

Mr. Aldag was first elected in 2015 and lost the seat to the Tories in 2019. He reclaimed it in 2021 by besting his Conservative opponent with 39.2 percent of the vote against 36.1 percent.

With the federal Tories’ previous record in the riding, their 20-point lead in national polls over the Liberals, and the meteoric rise of the B.C. Conservatives (even if independent of the federal Conservative Party), it would be more of an upset in this case for the Liberals to retain the seat.

This byelection must be announced by Nov. 30 and is expected to be held sometime in January 2025.

Going from one coast to the other, the fourth upcoming byelection will take place in the riding of Halifax. Liberal MP Andy Fillmore has held the seat since 2015. He said in late June that he would not be returning to the House of Commons in the fall.

Progressive-Conservatives last held that riding in 1988, after which it changed hands between the Liberals and NDP. Former NDP leader Alexa McDonough held the Halifax seat from 1997 to 2008.

Conservatives have had a poor showing there in the last three elections, with their best result being 12.9 percent in 2021. Meanwhile, the NDP trailed the Liberals by 3 points in that contest.

Elections Canada has not yet issued a news release indicating that the riding is vacant, as Mr. Fillmore has not yet officially resigned as an MP.