With four byelections taking place across Canada in June, a drop in popular support by more than 5 percent should be an indication for the major parties as a sign of trouble during the next federal election, according to a pollster.
“For any party, a drop in popular support by 5 percent or more would be on the radar,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research, said in an interview.
“If an incumbent party is up or minus 5 percent, you can attribute that to the local campaign and also to the voter turnout. But once you get something beyond that, that’s when the parties usually take notice.”
Portage–Lisgar, Manitoba
Following interim Conservative Party leader Candice Bergen’s resignation from politics on Feb. 1, the riding of Portage–Lisgar was left vacant. Branden Leslie, Bergen’s former campaign manager, will attempt to retain the party’s near two-decade hold on the riding.Oxford, Ontario
Dave MacKenzie held the riding of Oxford for the Conservatives for 19 years before announcing his retirement in January. While political pundits see the riding as a safe “blue” seat, Nanos said the race will be “more complicated” for the Conservatives due to controversies surrounding the nomination process.Gerrit Van Dorland, an executive assistant to a Saskatchewan MP, was also abruptly disqualified from the race by the party’s national council over a week before the nomination meeting, with some maintaining his pro-life beliefs led to the ousting.
Nanos said such controversies can sometimes decrease turnout for the incumbent parties in byelections, and the Conservatives will have to “fight the Liberals and then fight a narrative that not all is well in the Conservative family.”
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce−Westmount, Quebec
After former cabinet minister Marc Garneau stepped down in March, the Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount riding has been open for a byelection. Since the riding was created by the 2012 federal electoral boundaries redistribution, it has been safely held by the Liberals, with the NDP consistently coming in second place.The Green Party has seen an opportunity to gain a third seat, with Green Party deputy leader Jonathan Pedneault announcing he will run in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce−Westmount. But Powers said there is slim evidence that the Greens have much of a base in Quebec, especially since the riding has a “historic connection” with the Liberal Party.
Winnipeg South Centre, Manitoba
In Winnipeg South Centre, Liberal candidate Ben Carr is looking to win the seat left vacant by his father, who died in December 2022. Former cabinet minister Jim Carr had held the seat for the Liberals since 2015, defeating Conservative candidate Joyce Bateman during the last three elections.Nelson Wiseman, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, said that while he believes the riding will stay Liberal, the party’s share of the vote will probably shrink in the byelection.
“Generally when you have byelections, supporters of the governing party are less likely to turn out to vote than opponents of the governing party. And that’s because everybody knows that no matter what happens in the byelections, the government doesn’t change,” Wiseman said in an interview.
“But, still, because the national trend now shows that the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals, I expect the Liberal vote will go down.”