Tensions continue to mount between Belarus, a key Russian ally, and NATO members Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia following a series of recent military deployments and border closures.
In an indication of rising tensions, the U.S. State Department this week urged American citizens in Belarus to leave the country “immediately.”
“Consider departing via the remaining border crossings with Lithuania and Latvia, or by plane,” an Aug. 21 advisory issued by the U.S. Embassy in Minsk reads.
The warning comes only days after NATO member Lithuania closed two of its six border crossings with Belarus because of what it called “geopolitical circumstances.”
Vilnius didn’t elaborate on the nature of those circumstances. But the closures follow the recent arrival of Russian Wagner Group fighters in Belarus, where they are reportedly training units of the Belarusian military.
A private military company with ties to the Kremlin, the Wagner Group played a leading role—until recently—in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
In response to the recent border closures, the Belarusian authorities claimed that Lithuania was using “alleged security threats”—including the Wagner presence—as a “pretext” for halting cross-border traffic.
In a statement, the Belarusian Border Guard accused Vilnius of erecting “artificial barriers” along the border “to serve its political agenda.”
NATO States Fortify Borders
Tensions along Belarus’s borders with NATO members Latvia and Poland have also ramped up significantly in recent days.Last week, Latvia’s defense minister ordered the military to help safeguard the border area. As justification, he cited increased attempts by foreign migrants to enter the country illegally.
Latvia currently has two functioning border crossings with Belarus.
In an Aug. 15 statement, Latvia’s Border Guard claimed to have information about “a possible increase in hybrid threats,” including alleged efforts by the Belarusian authorities to help undocumented migrants enter Latvia.
The move by Latvia coincided with similar moves by Poland, which, triggered by the Wagner presence next door, has also bolstered its military presence along its border with Belarus.
After several earlier—albeit smaller—deployments, Warsaw on Aug. 10 announced plans to send 10,000 additional troops to the border.
At the time, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said the move was intended to “scare away the aggressor so it does not dare attack us.”
Polish officials assert that Wagner fighters in Belarus—stationed only a stone’s throw from the border—threaten not only Poland but NATO’s entire “eastern flank.”
Like their Latvian counterparts, Polish officials also say the border deployments aim to curb rising numbers of migrants trying to enter the country illegally.
Belarusian and Russian officials, meanwhile, have said that Poland’s ongoing border buildup is proof of “preparations” by Warsaw for “larger-scale aggressive actions.”
Moscow’s envoy to Minsk recently warned that Russia and Belarus were ready to counter “any threat” to their collective security.
Shadow of Moscow, Beijing
Since 1999, Russia and Belarus have been bound by a “Union State” treaty aimed at cementing bilateral ties, especially in the field of defense.Last fall, Russia sent troops and military equipment to Belarus under the aegis of the Union State treaty.
Earlier this year, Moscow unveiled plans to station nuclear weapons in Belarus. In June, Mr. Lukashenko claimed that a number of Russian nuclear weapons—he didn’t say how many—were already in the country.
In response to recent Polish border deployments, Moscow has warned that an attack on Belarus—“by Poland or any other aggressor”—would be deemed an attack on Russia itself.
Minsk’s long-standing alliance with Moscow also appears to be bringing Belarus into China’s expanding geopolitical orbit.
After visiting Russia last week, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu paid a visit to Minsk, where he voiced Beijing’s readiness to boost military ties with Belarus.
Beijing maintains close economic, political, and commercial ties with Moscow.
Those ties have become increasingly friendly since March, when Chinese President Xi Jinping made a landmark visit to Moscow for talks with his Russian counterpart.
At an Aug. 17 meeting with Mr. Lukashenko in Minsk, the Chinese defense minister said his visit was aimed at “the implementation of important agreements ... and the further strengthening of bilateral military cooperation.”
The Ukraine Factor
Despite its alliance with Russia, Belarus has yet to play an active role in Moscow’s invasion of eastern Ukraine.Mr. Lukashenko has said that proposed China–Belarus military cooperation wasn’t directed against any third countries.
“If the Ukrainians don’t cross our border, we’ll never take part in this war,” he said on Aug. 17. “But we’ll always help Russia; they are our allies.”
Belarus shares borders with both Ukraine and Russia, in addition to Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia.
Washington, meanwhile, has accused Belarus of both abetting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and persecuting political dissidents at home.
In its travel advisory, the State Department blasted what it described as Minsk’s “facilitation of Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine, buildup of Russian military forces in Belarus, arbitrary enforcement of local laws, [and] potential for civil unrest.”
