After Carney’s Win, When Are Canadians Heading to the Polls?

Then-Liberal Leadership candidate Mark Carney speaks with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre before a ceremony at the National Holocaust Monument in Ottawa, on Jan 27, 2025. The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

News Analysis

After securing a strong mandate from Liberal Party members, new leader Mark Carney will need to face the broader Canadian electorate in the coming weeks or months.

A day after obtaining over 85 percent of the vote in the leadership race, there is still uncertainty regarding when Carney will take over as prime minister. There is greater and more consequential uncertainty related to when the next federal election will take place.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has yet to announce when he is officially stepping down. He said last week a transition period would be necessary to hand over power. After Trudeau steps down, the governor general will appoint Carney, a former Bank of Canada governor, as prime minister.

This will make Carney the first unelected prime minister who has never previously held public office. The most recent case of an unelected prime minister was former MP John Turner, who won the Liberal leadership race in 1984 after Pierre Trudeau stepped down.

During his campaign, Carney has not said how he will seek to gain a House seat, whether through a byelection or a general election. When asked about an election call during the French-language leadership debate on Feb. 24, Carney replied, “We never take a decision until we [need to] take a decision.”

“There are circumstances, from here to mid-March, which could intervene,” said, referring to tariff threats from the United States.

While remaining vague on his intent, Carney stressed the importance of the government having legitimacy during a period of trade tension with the United States.

“We need a government with a clear and strong mandate,” he said.

For months, the current minority Liberal government has been staring down threats of a non-confidence vote from all opposition parties, which may not materialize as Trudeau has prorogued Parliament until March 24.

Carney will also take over from a prime minister who’s been under criticism and taunts from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly referred to Trudeau as the “governor” of Canada amid his ongoing “51st state” rhetoric.

Carney’s stated desire to have a strong mandate, coupled with the Liberals improving their standing in the polls in recent weeks, could be enough motivation for him to ask the governor general to dissolve Parliament shortly after taking power. This would lead to an early spring election.

Tariffs Uncertainty

On the flip side, given the uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs, there is a possibility that Carney could attempt to govern under the banner of stability, and to legislate on emergency measures to provide support to affected workers and businesses.

For that, he would need the support of an opposition party. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh opened the door last week when he said he wouldn’t vote non-confidence against the government until such support measures are put in place.

“With the urgency of what we’re up against, the seriousness of the impact on our economy, on workers, the threat to workers’ jobs, the increase in the cost of living, we want to see protections in place first and an election second,” Singh said on March 7.

Singh had previously said in December 2024 that his party would vote non-confidence against the Liberal government “no matter who is leading the Liberal Party.”

“We will put forward a clear motion of non-confidence in the next sitting of the House of Commons,” Singh wrote in a letter to Canadians on December 20.

The Bloc Québécois also vowed to help take down the government in the fall after it didn’t back two of its private member’s bills.

Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet congratulated Carney for his win and asked him on March 10 to call an election “as soon as possible,” saying it’s the only way for him to have legitimacy.

Meanwhile, Conservatives have been focusing criticism on Carney for weeks. Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre said on March 10 he is still calling for a “carbon tax election” even though Carney said he would remove the consumer-facing carbon tax. Poilievre said an election is necessary because Carney has proposed to “add another industrial carbon tax on top of the existing one.” Carney said on the campaign trail he would make “big polluters pay” to compensate for removing the carbon tax on consumers.

If Carney decides against going into a snap spring election, there is less certainty, compared to a few months ago, that all opposition parties will seek to immediately topple his government.

However, seeking to govern as an unelected prime minister during troubled times could prove too much of a risk for Carney, and a too much of a boon for opposition parties seeking to capitalize on a brand-new and untested politician.

If no early election is called this spring or summer, the legislated date to hold a vote cannot go past October.

Matthew Horwood contributed to this report.