Africans Excited but Nervous Ahead of Trump’s 2nd Term

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) walks with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta on the White House colonnade as they make their way to the Oval Office, on Feb. 6, 2020. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

JOHANNESBURG—Africa is set to feature “quite prominently” on the agenda of the second Trump administration, according to Ronak Gopaldas, an analyst for the Signal Risk firm in Cape Town, South Africa.

“There was a sense that Trump ignored Africa during his first term, but the world has changed a lot since then,” he told The Epoch Times.

“There’s now a much greater global realization that Africa’s critical minerals are vital to the prosperity of people everywhere, including Americans.

“Also, Trump cannot afford to give up more ground to China in Africa. If he does, the American economy will eventually suffer and that will undermine the central promise of his campaign for reelection.”

On the campaign trail, Trump pledged to impose a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods and a levy of between 10 percent to 20 percent on all other imports.

Brooks Spector, international relations analyst at Wits University in Johannesburg and a former U.S. diplomat in Africa, told The Epoch Times: “Trump’s all about trade. His No. 1 priority is, ‘What will Americans gain from doing business with you?’

“Everything’s about reciprocity with Trump. Unlike the Democrats, who are sometimes willing to dispense a bit of charity, Trump’s about quid pro quo. Kind of like, we’ll help you but then we expect you to help us.”

Edward Kufour, vice chairman of the Africa International Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told The Epoch Times the continent’s business sector has “mixed feelings” about Trump once again being the U.S. commander-in-chief.

“On the one hand, we think the Trump administration will cut red tape and make it easier for Americans to do business in Africa, and vice versa,” he said.

“On the other hand, if Trump follows through on his promise to raise tariffs on imported goods, African exporters are going to lose many millions of dollars overnight, and the economic fallout from the instability in the markets could result in African consumers paying a lot more for certain products.”

Trump has said that his tariff plans will rebuild the U.S. manufacturing base, grow U.S. jobs and incomes, and earn trillions of dollars in federal revenues over 10 years.

Some detractors say Trump’s tariff plans would spark inflation, collapse U.S.–China trade, draw retaliatory tariff increases across the world, and send global supply chains into turmoil.

“Should the world’s most powerful economy resort to blanket protectionism, medium and small economies will no doubt respond in kind,” Raphael Agung, chief economist at Kenya’s Institute of Economic Affairs, told The Epoch Times.

“It’s a recipe for a very serious trade war.”

Critical Minerals

The Atlantic Council’s critical minerals task force notes that Africa is home to more than 30 percent of the world’s known reserves of critical minerals.

It said African countries have a central role to play in the supply chains of essential 21st-century industries, particularly electric vehicles, lithium batteries, cell phones, medical scanners, and military hardware.

“The energy transition and economic competitiveness in developed economies depend on their ability to secure a supply of these minerals, sustain innovation, and create mutually beneficial partnerships with source nations,” the task force said.

Vin Weber, a former U.S. representative from Minnesota and a former adviser to several Republican presidential campaigns, told The Epoch Times that the U.S.–China rivalry ramped up in Africa during President Joe Biden’s term and will “intensify further” when Trump enters the White House.

“We don’t have a choice, really,” Weber said. “One of the main focuses of the United States in the next decade or so must be on securing supply chains of critical minerals.”

Kwame Darko, a Ghanaian economist, told The Epoch Times that Africa’s “biggest fear” is “a Donald Trump who forces it to choose between America and China.”

Over the past 20 years, China has become Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner, according to World Economic Forum data.

Data show that around 20 percent of the continent’s exports now go to China and about 16 percent of Africa’s imports come from China. This amounted to a record $282 billion in total trade volume in 2023.

Darko said Africa cannot afford to minimize relations with China and that this is likely to cause tension with the Trump administration.

“If Trump adopts the attitude of, ‘If you’re friends with our enemy then you’re our enemy,’ then we’re in for a very difficult four years,” he stated.

“Africa could well end up being a battleground for the world’s two greatest powers.”

Gopaldas is confident that Trump and his advisers will “fall in” with the “growing consciousness globally that Africa’s people and resources are going to play a huge role in determining the world’s future trajectory.”

“Joe Biden recognized that, and Donald Trump would do well to do the same,” Gopaldas said.

“I believe that he has to find a way to do business with Africa because America needs Africa just as much as we need America.”

In December 2022, at the U.S.–Africa Business Forum held in Washington, Biden said, “Africa’s success and prosperity is essential to ensuring a better future for all of us, not just for Africa.”

According to a recent study by global consultancy firm McKinsey, Africa has the youngest population in the world, with 70 percent of sub-Saharan Africa under the age of 30.

The continent’s population is expected to double to 2.5 billion by 2050, adding 800 million people to the workforce.

By 2100, according to the McKinsey report, one in three people on Earth will be African.

The Council for Foreign Relations noted that by the end of the century, sub-Saharan Africa will be home to almost half of the young people in the world.

“The Trump administration surely has to harness all this energy for the good of Africans and for Americans, starting with U.S. assistance for young entrepreneurs and improving trade with the continent,” said Gopaldas.

Sanusha Naidoo, analyst at South Africa’s Institute for Global Dialogue, said should Trump stick to the ‘America First’ script, “he’ll trade more with African partners, decrease or even stop trade with countries he thinks aren’t friendly toward America,” and potentially cut aid to Africa.

She told The Epoch Times: “I think what really resonated with American voters is Trump’s mantra of, ‘Make me president again and I’ll put you first, not anyone else.’

“Many Americans are obviously angry because they can’t afford groceries and houses, yet millions of taxpayer dollars are given to Ukraine.

“Similarly, if I were an American, I guess I’d be happier if my money was used to save all the opiate addicts in my town rather than being used to save HIV-infected people in Africa.”

African governments and nonprofits are concerned a second Trump administration will end a program that’s credited with saving 25 million lives and preventing millions of HIV infections, mostly in Africa, since it was launched by President George W. Bush in 2003.

The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) is the largest commitment by any nation to address a single disease in history.

According to the U.S. State Department, U.S. taxpayers have so far funded PEPFAR to the tune of $100 billion, with the program providing antiretroviral medication to millions around the world, mostly in Africa.

Professor Salim Abdool Karim, one of Africa’s leading HIV scientists, says that if PEPFAR is cut, “millions will die; it’s as simple as that.”

African climate change advocates reacted particularly negatively to Trump’s win.

Trump has said that “the climate has always been changing.” He has alarmed environmental groups with his commitment to scaling up the use of fossil fuels and allowing more mining in the United States.

His transition team made it clear he’s withdrawing the United States from the Paris Climate Accord. He did the same thing during his first term, after which the Biden administration rejoined.

The climate agreement was adopted by 196 countries at the U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris in December 2015.

The pact’s goal is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels” primarily by limiting hydrocarbon emissions caused by the burning of fossil fuels, including coal and oil.

The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said that crossing the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold risks unleashing far more extreme weather, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves, and floods.

Some scientists say Africa is suffering the worst effects of so-called climate change, with higher-than-usual temperatures and floods resulting in crop failures that are leaving millions hungry.

The Global South has been pushing for the world’s richest countries to contribute to a “Loss-and-Damage Fund” to provide financial assistance to poorer nations in their climate-related efforts.

Ayakha Melithafa, a commissioner on the Presidential Climate Commission in South Africa, told The Epoch Times there’s “no way” Trump will agree to such compensation.

“The Biden administration resisted this call, so it’s far-fetched to expect a Trump administration to heed it,” she said.

“I also don’t expect Trump to provide U.S. funding for Africa’s transition to clean energy. We’re on our own.”