Permanent Migration to Australia Drops, As Long Term Residents Leave: ABS

Travellers wait in long service lines at the Sydney domestic airport in Sydney, Australia, on July 19, 2024. Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images

The latest migration data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveals significant shifts in Australia’s migration trends.

Permanent arrivals dropped by 5.6 percent, from 13,230 in August 2023 to 12,490 in August 2024. Similarly, long-term resident returns fell by 6.1 percent, from 12,080 to 11,350 during the same period.

In contrast, long-term visitor departures surged by 18 percent, with numbers rising from 21,500 to 25,370 in the 12 months to August.

This trend shift may be attributed to various factors, including economic uncertainty, inflation, and rising cost-of-living pressures, which could be deterring migrants and influencing long-term residents’ decisions to return.

Gaurav Batra, who moved to Australia in April from India, explained that after five months of unsuccessful job searching, he temporarily returned to India to avoid depleting his savings.

“I was done burning my savings,” he said, adding that he plans to return to Australia later with more financial stability.

Australia’s high housing costs and limited job opportunities in certain sectors may also be discouraging both potential migrants and returning residents.

Additionally, recent policy changes, such as stricter immigration regulations and visa conditions, may be contributing to the decline.

A notable example is the cap on international student visas. Universities Australia has reported a 23 percent decrease in visas granted over the past year, equating to nearly 60,000 fewer students.

According to Universities Australia Chief Executive Luke Sheehy, this decline could result in a $4.3 billion economic hit and potentially tens of thousands of job losses.

However, Daniel Wild, Deputy Executive Director of the Institute of Public Affairs, says broader migration numbers remain elevated.

He noted that net permanent and long-term arrivals from January to August totalled 356,940, surpassing the previous record of 352,060 set in 2023.

Wild expressed concerns that this high level of migration, driven by government policies, is contributing to economic challenges such as inflation, declining household incomes, and rising house prices and rents.

“These record-level intakes have not been planned for, are unsustainable, and have fuelled the perfect storm of high inflation, declining household incomes, and ever-higher house prices and rents,” he said.

NSW Tops Visitor Numbers, ACT Leads Growth

New South Wales saw the highest number of total visitors, recording a 4.5 percent increase compared to the previous year.

Victoria followed with a 4.7 percent rise, while Queensland experienced significant growth with a 16.7 percent increase in visitor numbers.

The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) saw the largest surge, with visitor numbers jumping 29.8 percent in August 2024 compared to the same period last year.

In the visitor segment, New Zealand, China, and Japan ranked as the top source countries, accounting for 112,780, 78,550, and 54,420 trips to Australia, respectively.

Despite the declines in resident arrivals and returns, Australia’s strong visitor numbers highlight its ongoing appeal as a global travel destination.