Australians will need to brace for a season of severe weather, according to the latest long-range forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).
The peak season for severe weather in Australia normally occurs from October to April with heatwaves, bushfires, tropical cyclones, severe thunderstorms, and floods.
According to the 2023-24 season forecast, Australia has a high chance of “unusually warm temperatures” until at least February next year.
The eastern and southern parts of the country have an increased risk of bushfires because of reduced rainfall, high fuel loads, and above-average temperatures.
“Daytime and night-time temperatures have an increased chance of being unusually warm for October to February. Warm nights after hot days means little relief from heat and can lead to heat stress,” Senior Meteorologist Sarah Scully said.
“There is always a risk of dangerous and destructive fires in Australia at this time of year. Grass growth due to above average rainfall in the past 2 to 3 years is contributing to an increased fire risk.”
On the other hand, the risk of tropical cyclones is “below average” although at least one tropical cyclone crosses Australia’s coast each season.
Australia’s most cyclone-prone area is the northwest coast between Broome and Exmouth, followed by northern Queensland and the Top End of the Northern Territory.
“On average the first tropical cyclone crosses the Australian coast in late December. This can be later in El Niño years—possibly early to mid-January,” Ms. Scully said.
“During El Niño, the number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region is often below average.”
Meanwhile, the risk of severe thunderstorms and flooding remains normal, with dry conditions expected for late spring and early summer with localised flooding.
Ms. Scully said the start of the Australian summer monsoon was later than average during El Nino and positive IOD years.
“The average date is the last week in December and this season it’s more likely to be in the first or second week of January,” she said.
“Severe thunderstorms are more common during the warmer months, particularly in northern New South Wales, southern Queensland, inland Western Australia, and across the tropical north.”
“Thunderstorm asthma can be triggered by thunderstorms after high grass growth in southern Australia from October to December when pollen levels are highest,” she said.
In the past months, Australia has seen bushfire events breaking out in different parts of the country, with 70 fires burning across New South Wales in August.
Dangerous fires have been recorded blazing throughout Victoria, causing authorities to tell residents to evacuate.
While the long-range forecast shows conditions are likely to be drier than usual for large parts of Australia, there is still a risk of riverine and flash flooding where storms bring heavy rainfall, according to the ABS.
