50 Percent Chance of Terrorism in Australia: Spy Agency Boss

Police officers that form part of the Australian Joint Counter Terrorism Team stand outside a home they raided as part of an operation in which they arrested three men who were allegedly preparing to attack the public in Melbourne, Australia, on Nov. 20, 2018. AAP/David Crosling/via Reuters

The threat that someone is either planning or will conduct a terrorist attack within the next 12 months in Australia is 50 percent, according to the boss of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO).

ASIO Director-General of Security Mike Burgess revealed the startling figure during a speech at the National Press Club of Australia in Canberra on April 24.

Despite this, Australia’s terrorism threat remains at possible, rather than probable, after being downgraded in 2023.

“There is a 50 percent chance that in the next 12 months or even right now there is someone planning an act of terrorism or will conduct an act of terrorism,” Mr. Burgess said.

“The most likely attack will come from an individual or a small group of individuals that go to violence with little or no warning.”

The ASIO boss explained this threat could come from a “range of ideologies” and it could happen quickly.

The principal groups of concern are neo-Nazis, nationalists, and racist violent extremists.

“But there are a range of individuals including people with conspiracy theories,” he said.

Privacy ‘Not Absolute’: ASIO Boss

Meanwhile, Mr. Burgess also argued during his speech that technology should not be above the rule of the law .

He argued for making encryption accountable and said big tech companies need to step up, rather than creating back doors.

“Encryption, the companies implementing it and the individuals using it should be responsible and accountable. Under law, all of us have a right to do many things, up to a point,” he said.

Further, he said that privacy is important, but not absolute.

“You lose that privilege if you engage in criminal conduct or threats to our security. In the case of the neo-Nazi chat room—should a nationalist and racist violent extremist’s right to privacy outweigh the community’s right to safety?” he said.

Mr. Burgess explained the ASIO recently investigated an Australian who was sharing extremist material online.

Eventually, the intelligence gathering agency learned “multiple offshore extremists” had encouraged the individual to conduct an act of terrorism.

“We suspected he was communicating with overseas ISIL supporters, and feared they were encouraging him to conduct a terrorist attack. But we did not know for sure because he was using encrypted communications,” he said.

“We used surveillance, human intelligence, and other capabilities to determine if the Australian possessed the intent and capability to conduct an attack. The investigation was difficult, dangerous, time-consuming, and resource-intensive.”

He said this illustrates the gap in ASIO’s ability to lawfully intercept the use of encrypted communications by terrorists and spies is such a concern, “particularly in the current security environment.”

“This is why I am asking the private sector to step up. I’m calling on big tech to establish lawful access solutions that can be applied in very tightly controlled and targeted situations—not to create back doors or systemic weaknesses that break the internet,” he said.

“If the threat, evidence, safeguards, and oversight are strong enough for us to obtain a warrant, then they should be strong enough for the companies to help us give effect to that warrant. To make encryption accountable.”

“Making encryption accountable would be a natural extension of the role that industry plays in helping government respond to many other risks on a national level.”

AFP Commissioner Concerned About Social Media Platforms

Meanwhile, Australian Federal Police commissioner Reece Kershaw also took the view that freedom of speech has limits.

The comments come amid a battle between big tech and Elon Musk’s X and the Australian authorities.

“Freedom of speech does not extend to sharing online material of children being sexually abused. Nor does it have anything to do with the sharing of video of someone being attacked in a church,” he said.

“We used to plan the future of policing through the lens of the years to come. But now, because of constant advances in technology, the years to come are almost every 24 hours.”

Mr. Kershaw also raised concerns social media companies are “refusing to snuff out” the social combustion on the platforms.

“Instead of putting out the embers that start on their platforms, their indifference and defiance is pouring accelerant on the flames,” he said.

He referenced “misinformation and disinformation” circulated online during two recent stabbing attacks in Sydney, one at the Bondi shopping centre and the other at a church.

“If we consider the disinformation and misinformation from two shocking incidents in Sydney this month, and how that social combustion was propagated throughout the world, we see the consequences of that indifference and defiance,” Mr. Kershaw said.

“Our respected leaders of faith tell us how the interpretation of religion is being purposely distorted on social media,” he said.

“Because of this, their communities and religious beliefs are tarnished and blamed for violent acts carried out by those who have been radicalised.”

The commissioner also likened online safety to the warnings about strangers in the past.

“We used to warn our children about stranger danger, but now we need to teach our kids about the digital-world deceivers.

“We need to constantly reinforce that people are not always who they claim to be online; and that also applies to images and information,” Mr. Kershaw said.