RIO DE JANEIRO—World leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping, have gathered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for the annual G20 Summit on November 18–19.
This year’s agenda includes combating hunger and poverty, expanding climate action, and a discussion on reforming global governance.
The summit also comes amid increasing conflict and international tensions, including in the Middle East with the Israel–Hamas war and in Eastern Europe with the Russia–Ukraine war, and a growing concern over Chinese aggression around Taiwan and in the South China Sea.
Experts say an environment of international uncertainties is a talking point of the event.
“And so even to look at the G20, I think you see that the great differences and internal conflicts among the members are those reappearing,” R. Evan Ellis, a research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College and a former policy planning staff member at the State Department during the previous Trump administration, told The Epoch Times.
“I mean, even looking at some of the key players who were going to be there. Europe’s moved to the right and Italy’s president is going to be there. Japan with the chaos that just came out of the Japanese government. The U.S. with President Biden with a political transition. Turkey there, with some of the questionable rules that Erdogan has played in NATO and in other places.”
1. Impact of Trump’s Election Win
A Republican trifecta in the U.S. presidential election—winning the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate—is a topic that world leaders are expected to discuss at the G20.“I think probably one of the most ironic things that is happening at these multilateral forums, especially APEC and the G20, is that most of the leaders there are probably taking advantage of this time together to figure out how to respond to the dramatic change from the Biden administration to the Trump administration in the US,” Ellis said.
Ernesto Araújo, Brazil’s former foreign minister, who worked with Trump’s cabinet on bilateral ties during the Republican’s previous administration, said Trump’s “America First” approach might see him preferring other means of diplomacy rather than “multilateral” forums.
“Donald Trump is coming in with an agenda that will go head-on against the multilateral system in areas such as climate and the environment in general, including the possibility he could leave the Paris Climate Agreement and go back to privileging production and using fossil fuels, besides the health issue,” Araújo told The Epoch Times. “I see all of them are preparing to criticize Trump’s angle, saying ‘we’re more concerned about what is coming ahead.’ I can nearly write the speeches these countries are about to make with this ‘concern’ thing regarding what Trump will mean, how it threatens the ‘multilateral system,’ ‘global governance’ and such things.”
The new administration’s economic policies are also a key driver of conversations.
Trump’s return to the presidency has leaders weighing how to respond to potential new tariffs as promised on the campaign trail.
The move could also impact U.S. allies.
Campaign trail rhetoric on tariffs—mostly centered on China—seems more concrete as Trump rolls out announcements for his cabinet members, with an ensemble of picks that advocate for a strict approach to China, including Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as secretary of state and Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) as national security adviser.
Experts and former government officials say that international summits such as the G20 usually have most of the agreements and documents that are publicly signed prepared beforehand and that the diversity of the countries involved can translate into little agreement on how to approach challenges.
“The G20 has been a forum that grows increasingly on the number of themes it seeks to address and ends up not really addressing in depth any of them,” Araújo said.
Ellis said that due to a scenario of international disagreement, there is “very little concrete progress that has or will be achieved, unfortunately.”
2. China’s Latin America Push
The G20 Summit in Rio takes place as the Chinese Communist Party flexes diplomatic and strategic muscle in Latin America.U.S. officials and experts have raised concerns about the potential military capabilities of the port.
Joseph Humire, the executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society, previously told The Epoch Times that the depth of the port makes it capable of receiving large cargo ships, but also aircraft carriers.
The U.S. Southern Command, the military institution responsible for security in Latin America and the Caribbean, has reported security concerns to the U.S. Congress about similar projects.
“The PRC is also seeking to establish global logistics and basing infrastructure in our hemisphere in order to project and sustain military power at greater distances.”
China replaced the United States as Brazil’s largest trading partner in 2009, a post it has kept since. The same has happened with other countries throughout the region. From 2002 to 2019, Chinese trade with Latin America soared from $17 billion to over $315 billion, according to figures published by the U.S. military.
Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and the only one to constantly feature among the world’s top 10. It is also the fifth largest country in the world, bigger than the contiguous continental United States.
The timing of China’s show of strength in the region might not be accidental.
According to Ellis, a new Trump administration could mean greater attention to Latin America.
3. Russia’s Putin Didn’t Attend
In addition to China, Russia’s diplomacy is also in focus at the G20 Summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin was invited by the Brazilian government to attend the summit.Putin said in October that his presence at the summit might be disruptive as conversations could focus on the ICC arrest warrant issued for him last year. He said that someone else would represent Moscow at the event. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov went in his place.
Brazil would in theory be required to arrest the Russian president if he were to attend the meeting because Brazil is a signatory to the Rome Statute, the agreement that created the ICC.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, during an interview with a Brazilian newspaper, said, “The proposal by China and Brazil is destructive. It is just a political statement. ... Unfortunately, I believe that they [the Brazilian government] support Russia.”
Mathias Cormann, the secretary-general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a group that has been part of the event since its first meeting in 2008, was not invited by Brazil to participate in the event this year.
Araújo said that the bad relations between Brazil and the OECD, which were already frozen, were made explicit “in the absence of an invitation for the OECD to participate in the G20.”
He said the absence of the OECD “tends to create a kind of split in the G20. Because there are countries there that are active, important members of the OECD. Such as the United States, European countries, Japan, and Argentina itself, which is in the process of joining the OECD.”
“So it means disunity in this G20 grouping—which was supposed to be precisely a union of more and less developed countries,” he said.
4. Final Declaration to Focus on ‘Global Governance’
The drafting of the final joint declaration—which is considered the most relevant aspect of the meeting—has been a sensitive topic in recent years due to international conflicts and tensions.“It shows in part, the complicated position that Brazil has on some of these issues, as it itself is trying to be a peacemaker and in some ways is going against the position of other actors, such as the United States. [...] But also within the G20, there are deep divisions on these issues, especially Israel’s conduct of the war, and the position on Palestine,” Ellis said.
India, which chaired the G20 last year, faced the challenge of drafting a final declaration that would be accepted by most members. It ultimately addressed the war in Ukraine but stopped short of condemning the Russian government. This year, the final declaration is not expected to address the war in Ukraine, a decision criticized by some members who argue that the conflict impacts the global economy and should be included in the final declaration.
Instead, the final document is anticipated to focus on themes such as food security, sustainable development, and changes in global governance. It will likely propose reforms to international organizations, including the United Nations and the World Trade Organization.
On Nov. 16, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar criticized the final declaration as “unbalanced and biased against Israel.”
Araújo says the failure to address these issues reduces expectations for the G20, which, despite having begun as a financial forum, has been addressing topics such as security in recent years.
“It would certainly be difficult to have a declaration that harmonized the positions of all—Europeans, Russians, and Americans—on this issue of Ukraine, for example. But that is what diplomacy is for: trying to reach common ground. But to give up on it as a non-starter, that is very bad for us,” he said.
Araújo said the way the Ukraine issue was handled could benefit Russia.
5. Protests
Protests over various issues took place during the build-up to the summit and are scheduled to continue on Nov. 18 and Nov. 19.One protest highlights the plight of people jailed in connection to the invasion of Brazil’s institutional buildings on Jan. 8, 2023. People stormed into Brazil’s seat of government, the National Congress, and the Supreme Court in an episode reminiscent of the Jan. 6, 2021, incident at the U.S. Capitol.
Those protesting ahead of the G20 Summit claim that the Jan. 8 protesters didn’t have access to due legal process and were arrested based on allegations of attempting a coup. Many of the Jan. 8 protesters who were arrested claim they were not among those who committed violence at the time and shouldn’t be considered guilty for being there.
So far, 265 people have been sentenced for the Jan. 8 events, with some receiving up to 17 years in prison for attempting to abolish the democratic rule of law. More than 1,000 others have been jailed or are subject to restrictions on their movement and speech. They claim they have not received due legal process.
More protests related to the Jan. 8 events are planned to happen in the next two days near the G20 Summit’s venue. They are supported by some conservative Brazilian congressmen.
Hard-left groups in Brazil are also promoting what they call “the largest national protest defending Palestine” on Nov. 18.
Brazilian Falun Gong practitioners on Nov. 17 held a peaceful appeal in front of the G20 venue, where the Chinese leader will attend the summit, and displayed banners on a highway that the Chinese delegation was expected to go through.
Demonstrators asked the Chinese regime to stop the persecution of Falun Gong practitioners.
Falun Gong, also known as Falun Dafa, is an ancient Chinese spiritual practice based on the principles of truthfulness, compassion, and forbearance. In 1999, fearing the growing popularity of the discipline, the CCP launched an extensive campaign of persecution against these practitioners. Since then, practitioners have been persecuted, imprisoned, tortured, and killed by the regime.
On Sunday, ethnic Chinese people arrived by bus, displayed large Chinese flags, attempted to cover the demonstrators’ banners, screamed at them in Chinese, harassed and threatened them, and photographed the license plates of the cars they used to leave the scene. Falun Gong practitioners requested assistance from local law enforcement.
Reporters from The Epoch Times were harassed on location as they covered the protest. No similar incidents were reported during other protests.
