Three provincial elections in Canada this month brought a new majority Liberal government to New Brunswick, a fifth consecutive majority government for the Saskatchewan Party, and a razor-thin victory for the BC NDP.
Although those were the only fixed elections scheduled for this fall, there will now be one more vote before the new year. Nova Scotians will head to the polls next month after a snap election call this week by Conservative Premier Tim Houston.
Saskatchewan
The Saskatchewan election stands out as the sole contest in which the incumbent achieved a decisive victory on election night, marking a fifth straight victory for Scott Moe and his Saskatchewan Party. It’s a feat that has not been seen since 1960 when Tommy Douglas’ Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (now known as the NDP) won a fifth majority government.
While the Sask. Party will form a majority government thanks to its popularity in the rural ridings of the province; it does so with fewer seats in the legislature. Its majority was weakened by a revitalized NDP, which recorded its strongest electoral showing since 2007, winning in 26 ridings to nearly double its size in the legislature as the official Opposition.
The NDP secured seats in all but two urban ridings, achieving upset victories over several long-serving Sask. Party MLAs including Justice Minister and Attorney General Bronwyn Eyre, Social Services Minister Gene Makowsky, Public Safety Minister Paul Merriman, and Environment Minister Christine Tell.
British Columbia
David Eby’s B.C. NDP finally emerged victorious in a historic provincial election in which the winner was decided by the counting of absentee and special ballots.
Elections BC released the final ballot count results Oct. 28, nine days after the Oct. 19 vote, saying the NDP had won at least 47 seats, the magic number needed to achieve a majority government. The Conservatives won in 44 ridings, while the BC Greens won two seats.
The key question that remains is whether the NDP will retain its majority government status pending judicial review of the Surrey-Guildford riding where incumbent Garry Begg defeated Conservative candidate Honveer Singh Randhawa by only 27 votes.
Ridings with a margin of less than 1/500th of the total ballots cast are automatically subject to a judicial recount. If the recount favours the Conservative candidate in Surrey-Guildford, the NDP will lose majority status and will drop to 46 seats in the legislature to the Conservatives’ 45.
There will also be a judicial recount in the Kelowna Centre riding, where the Conservative candidate is currently leading with 38 votes.
Even if the recount does not result in another seat for the Conservatives, the party’s unprecedented rise in the legislature is all but unheard of.
Now it will form the official Opposition with only a few seats less than the governing NDP.
New Brunswick
The Oct. 21 New Brunswick election brought a dramatic turnaround, as the Progressive Conservative government was displaced by the Liberal Opposition, with Premier Blaine Higgs failing to secure his seat. Longtime PC MLA Glen Savoie stepped in as interim leader after Higgs stepped down.
The Liberals were victorious in 31 ridings and will form a majority government under leader Susan Holt, who will become the province’s first female premier. The incumbent Progressive Conservatives took 16 ridings to become the official Opposition in the legislature, and the Greens won two seats.
Holt’s campaign was mainly focused on health care and cost-of-living issues, while promising to maintain a balanced budget.
Nova Scotia
Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston has called an election for Nov. 26, well ahead of the fixed July 15, 2025, election date. His Oct. 27 decision comes at a time when his Progressive Conservative party is well ahead in the polls, but could also be a bid to capitalize on the popularity of the federal Conservatives, which enjoy a 17-point lead over the Liberals in Atlantic Canada.
Houston’s decision also comes at a time when tensions are on the rise between the PCs and the Liberals after former Liberal caucus chair Fred Tilley crossed the floor last week to join the Tories. Former Liberal cabinet minister Brendan Maguire joined the PCs as the minister of community services earlier this year. The Liberals allege that the two MLAs committed a privacy breach by accessing party files, while the PCs dismissed the claims.
Upcoming Elections
With Nova Scotia’s election now set for November, that leaves Newfoundland and Labrador as the lone province set to go to the polls in 2025.There will also be two territorial elections in 2025 as both Nunavut and the Yukon head to the polls. Nunavut’s election is slated for Oct. 27, while Yukon residents will cast their ballots Nov. 3.
