3 Million Ontarians Will Live With Major Illnesses by 2040, Report Predicts

Paramedics push a gurney toward an ambulance outside a Toronto Hospital on Jan. 5, 2022. The Canadian Press/Chris Young

More than three million Ontarians will be living with serious illnesses by 2040, posing significant risk to the already overburdened health-care system in the province, a new report is forecasting.

The ever-rising incidence of illness is primarily linked to the province’s aging population as baby boomers enter their 70s and 80s, but a growing number of younger Canadians are also experiencing serious health issues, researchers at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health say.

“The number of people living with chronic illnesses has nearly doubled over the past 20 years from approximately 960,000 in 2002 to 1.8 million in 2020,” the study authors said. “This trend is expected to continue, reaching approximately 3.1 million people living with major illness in 2040.”

The researchers used population forecasts and administrative health data on chronic disease prevalence to estimate the number of individuals expected to be living with significant illnesses in Ontario by the year 2040.

An increasing number of working-age Canadians are also becoming more susceptible to chronic diseases such as diabetes, renal failure, and osteoarthritis compared to years past, the study found. Major illnesses are expected to increase substantially in the 30 to 64 age group, rising from 5.7 percent in 2002 and 9.2 percent in 2020 to more than 10 percent in 2040.

Overall, approximately one in four adults aged 30 or older will be living with a major illness in 2040, compared to approximately one in eight individuals in 2002, the study authors said.

The Ontario Hospital Association (OHA), which collaborated in the production of the report, has long warned that the acute-care sector is at risk of being overwhelmed by the elderly and chronically ill.

“As we look to the future, it’s clear that Ontario’s reached a turning point,” OHA president and CEO Anthony Dale said in a press release. “Ontario’s health system is already grappling with rapid population growth, increasingly complex health needs and intense pressures on existing capacity. These findings confirm that maintaining the status quo is not an option. Health care in Ontario needs an innovation revolution. Without it, the system won’t be able to cope.”

Multimorbidity on the Rise

The rise in chronic illnesses can be attributed in part to an increasing life expectancy, the report authors wrote.

As of 2022, the average lifespan in Canada was 81.5 years. And that means the number of seniors aged 65 and older will reach “unprecedented highs” in the coming decades as the Baby Boomers age, the study says.

As the population ages, chronic diseases such as diabetes, cancers, and respiratory illnesses become more prevalent as does multimorbidity, the incidence of people having two or more ongoing medical conditions.

“Chronic disease and multimorbidity risk increase with age, but trends of rising chronic illness are not solely the result of aging,” the authors said. “They are also the result of changes in the distribution of chronic disease risk factors. Previous research has shown disparities in chronic conditions across key chronic disease risk factors, including smoking, physical activity, and increased body mass index (BMI), and between socioeconomic status (SES) groups.”

Specific Conditions

The study’s authors are predicting a rise in a number of chronic illnesses between 2024 and 2040 with incidence of renal failure topping the list at 361.5 percent. Hearing loss is expected to rise 224 percent followed by osteoporosis at 123.5 percent, cancer at 120.6 percent and dementia at 119.4 percent.

Diabetes is expected to increase by 118.7 percent while asthma is expected to rise by 113.9 percent. Rheumatoid arthritis will surge 107.7 percent followed by cardiac arrhythmia at 85 percent and hypertension at 51.4 percent.

“To address the growing chronic disease burden in Ontario, it is imperative to improve the overall health of the population by addressing a wide range of factors that influence health outcomes, including social, economic, environmental, and behavioural determinants,” the authors said.

Ontario is in urgent need of a comprehensive long-term plan for health services to adequately address the needs of its swiftly growing and aging population, the experts said.

Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government has poured billions of dollars into the health-care system since 2018, adding roughly 3,500 new beds and about 35,000 staff to the hospital system since 2019, the OHA said in a report.

And while the number of hospital beds have increased in Ontario in the past five years, it won’t meet future demands on the health-care system as the population grows and ages, the association said.

That is why the study recommends expanding services that help seniors live at home, such as access to home and community support services, primary care, and supportive housing. The authors said this will help ensure long-term care and hospital beds are available for people “with the most complex and serious needs.”

The study also suggests chronic disease prevention and early detection, rather than management alone, be a priority.