LONDON/SINGAPORE—World stocks were steady on the last trading day of the year as markets digested U.S. data and the dismantling of China’s zero-COVID policy, but the global index was heading for a 20 percent drop over a year marred by high inflation and war in Europe.
The dollar, a beneficiary of rising U.S. interest rates, was on track for its best annual performance in seven years.
The Federal Reserve and other central banks have been fighting inflation in the face of supply chain shortages and an energy crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic and oil producer Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“This has been very much a Fed-driven equity market throughout the year,” said David Bizer, managing partner at investment manager Global Customized Wealth.
“The market has been trying to anticipate when the Fed is going to hike, how fast and how far.”
U.S. stocks closed 1–2.5 percent higher on Thursday, buoyed by data showing rising U.S. jobless claims, which suggested Fed hikes might be starting to cool demand for labor.
Markets anticipate the Fed funds rate peaking near 5 percent in the middle of next year, from the current 4.25–4.5 percent.
The Fed has raised rates by a total 425 basis points since March.
Quarter and year-end book-squaring also lifted stocks, Bizer said.
But S&P 500 futures lost a little froth on Friday, falling 0.5 percent.
The Dow Jones index is heading for an 8.5 percent drop on the year, while the S&P 500 is eyeing a 19 percent fall.
European stocks fell 0.5 percent and were on course for a 12 percent annual drop. Britain’s FTSE 100, which houses several exporters, was down 0.2 percent but was bound for a rise of more than 1 percent in 2022.
MSCI’s world equity index was heading for its largest annual drop since the global financial crisis of 2008, when it slid more than 40 percent.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.38 percent, but is set to end the year down 19 percent, its worst performance since 2008.
Japan’s Nikkei was unchanged on the day, down 11 percent on the year.
China’s blue-chip CSI 300 Index was up 0.4 percent on the day but down 22 percent on the year, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.2 percent on the day but fell 16 percent in 2022.
China’s health system has been under stress due to soaring cases since the country started dismantling its “zero-COVID” policy at the start of the month, with several countries imposing or considering imposing curbs on travelers from China.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, dipped 0.16 percent.
The dollar has gained more than 8 percent over the year, but it lost more than 7 percent this quarter on expectations the Fed may not raise rates as high as previously feared.
Sterling was set for its worst performance against the dollar since 2016, when Britain voted to leave the European Union. It was last at $1.2063, down 0.09 percent on the day and around 11 percent on the year.
The Japanese yen strengthened to a 10-day high of 131.72 per dollar, but the Bank of Japan’s ultra-dovish policy has pushed it 13 percent lower this year, its worst performance since 2013.
The euro was steady at $1.0669, and was eyeing a 6 percent fall on the year.
Investors have been worried that central banks’ efforts to tame inflation could lead to an economic slowdown.
“Averting a downturn is a tall order,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, noting that the odds are stacked against economies emerging unscathed from global policy tightening.
Going into 2023, inflation has still to be beaten and investors will also be wary of geo-political tensions arising from the war in Ukraine and diplomatic strains over Taiwan, analysts said.
U.S. Treasuries and German bonds, the benchmarks of global borrowing markets, lost 16 percent and 24 percent respectively in dollar terms this year.
Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields gained 1 basis point to 3.84 percent on Friday, while 10-year German Bund yields rose 3.5 bps to 2.5 percent.
U.S. crude rose 0.54 percent to $78.72 per barrel and Brent was at $83.87, up 0.49 percent on the day.
Brent looked set to end the year with a gain of 8 percent, after jumping 50.2 percent in 2021. U.S. crude was on track for a 4.8 percent rise in 2022 following a 55 percent gain last year.
Gold was steady at $1.816 per ounce, and was also little changed on the year.
