But when it comes to the U.S. Senate, it’s less prognostication than math in acknowledging Republicans are favored to do what eluded them in 2022 and capture the chamber next cycle.
There will be 34 Senate seats on ballots across the nation in November 2024 with 23 now held by Democrats. While races for as many as eight of those seats are expected to be competitive, only two of the 11 now held by Republicans are projected to be so.
Among Democrat incumbents who will face what are expected to be strong GOP challenges, or at least well-funded campaigns, are West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, and Montana’s Jon Tester.
Sabato’s initial 2024 Senate race ratings posted on Jan. 24 also lists Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, as potentially vulnerable.
“Meanwhile, no Republican senators are up for reelection in states that Biden won,” Inside Elections writes. “It’s the first time in recent memory that one party doesn’t have a single vulnerable Senate seat on the initial battlefield.”
Of course, as Sabato’s notes, Republicans were favored to take the Senate in the 2022 elections but ended up actually losing a seat to give Democrats a two-vote cushion in the chamber.
The last two times this cycle of Senate seats were on the ballot—2012 and 2018—Sabato’s maintains Democrats were also “overexposed” but “basically held the line in both cycles, netting two seats to expand their majority in 2012, and then losing just two net seats” in 2018.
Breakdown of Key 2024 Senate Races
West Virginia: A Democrat not named Joe Manchin would have a difficult time winning an election in a state Trump won by nearly 40 points in 2020, and with the two-term incumbent reportedly pondering retirement, the most competitive 2024 Senate race could be in the GOP primary.One Republican has thrown his hat into the ring: Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.V.). Gov. Jim Justice said earlier in January he is “very seriously” considering a run while Patrick Morrisey, the first Republican to ever serve as the state’s attorney general, is also regarded as a potential strong contender.
State Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a moderate who finished third in Ohio’s 2022 GOP Senate primary won by now Sen. J.D. Vance, has already announced he will run. Secretary of State Frank LaRose is also said to be among potential Republican challengers.
Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), who as state auditor unsuccessfully challenged Tester in 2018, and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), Trump’s first Secretary of the Interior, are among Republicans reportedly pondering 2024 Senate runs.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) has formally declared his Senate candidacy and there are a host of Republicans that could also enter the race. Among them: failed gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, defeated Senate nominee Blake Masters, and former state Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson.
Up for a fourth term in 2024 is Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa.), the son of former Pennsylvania Gov. Robert P. Casey, Sr., a moderate who may not only face a strong yet-declared GOP candidate, but a challenge from the Left in the Democratic primary.