The Russian defense ministry claims that the Wagner private military company is preparing to surrender its heavy weapons, but there is no indication the group intends to follow through on the order.
Wagner currently maintains around 25,000 fighters and heavy armament equal to some small militaries, including tanks, aircraft, air defense systems, and howitzers—weapons it has used in Ukraine and shooting down six Russian helicopters and an airborne command center late last week.
Putin said that all members of Wagner who wished to join the Russian military would be offered contracts as part of a peace deal between Wagner and the Russian state. Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that less than 2 percent of Wagner fighters accepted the offer, however, and said they would refuse the new command structure.
Wagner Rebellion
The demand for Wagner to surrender its heavy weapons comes just days after the group seized the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and sent columns of troops toward Moscow, bringing the country to the brink of civil war.That mutiny was the boiling-over point of a long-running and highly-publicized feud between Wagner’s Prigozhin and Russian military brass.
In a series of viral speeches on Telegram, Prigozhin has alleged for months that the Russian military’s incompetence resulted in mass ammo shortages and an overwhelming number of untrained conscripts being sent to the front lines in Ukraine.
The enmity between Wagner and Russia’s military leadership exploded last week, when Prigozhin claimed that Russian forces had conducted airstrikes against Wagner’s rear bases, killing those fighting for Russia. The Russian defense ministry denies the allegations.
Following that incident, Prigozhin vowed to purge the “evil” from Russia’s military leadership, and announced his “march for justice” from Ukraine to Moscow.
“We’ll remain here until we have [Gerasimov and Shoigu], we’ll blockade the city of Rostov and go to Moscow,” Prigozhin said.
Prigozhin added that he believed it was necessary to remove “senile clowns” from the Russian bureaucracy to “end the disgrace” of Russia’s losses in Ukraine.
“We’re saving Russia,” Prigozhin said.
Uncertain Future for Wagner in Belarus
Putin condemned Prigozhin as a traitor shortly after the mutiny, comparing Wagner’s rebellion to the 1917 revolution, which destroyed the Russian Empire and then brought the Bolsheviks to power.Prigozhin, an ex-convict and restaurateur, founded Wagner in 2014 after serving Putin as a caterer for the Kremlin. The company’s troops have since fought throughout numerous theaters, including in the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, Sudan, and Syria, in addition to Ukraine.
Wagner is designated by several nations as a terrorist group and has been widely condemned for its many human rights violations, including the frequent use of sledgehammers as a method of torture and execution.
The group has nevertheless gained a large cult following in Russia for its nationalist rhetoric and refusal to cede ground in Ukraine, even as the Russian military surrendered whole cities at a time.
During the mutiny, Putin called on key allies, including leadership in Belarus, Turkey, and Iran. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko then allegedly negotiated the peace between Putin and Prigozhin, possibly preventing a civil war.
As part of that deal, Prigozhin and his loyal followers would be sent from Russia to Belarus in a sort of modern-day exile, while those who remained in Russia would be able to return home or else join the military.
Criminal charges against Prigozhin and Wagner were also dropped as part of the deal, though it remains unclear what future Wagner might have in Belarus, if any.
It is also unclear how Lukashenko came to mediate the crisis, but the leader has since claimed that such was necessary to prevent Belarus from falling into its own civil war as a result of Russian collapse.
Without Russia, he said, Belarus would be destroyed.
“If Russia collapses, we will remain under the rubble; we will all perish,” Lukashenko told reporters on June 27.
Lukashenko has worked to tie his nation’s fate to that of Russia in recent years. Belarus served as a critical staging point for Russian troops invading Ukraine last year, and this month, the nation began to house tactical nuclear weapons for Russia.