With Formation of New ‘Axis,’ China Has Critical Choice to Make, Says White House’s Sullivan

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan speaks during a press conference at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing on Aug. 29, 2024. Adek Berry/AFP via Getty Images

National security adviser Jake Sullivan has said that with the emerging “alignment of autocracies” as the world takes sides in the Russian–Ukraine war, China faces a defining moment in cementing how the world will view it. If it takes the “darker path,” he said, it will no longer have a way forward as the world’s second-largest economy.

“China has a choice to make,” Sullivan said on Dec. 17 at the 92NY in conversation with Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer. “It can either continue to tighten those links militarily, diplomatically ... [or] end up in a circumstance where it is really part of an axis.

“Or it could do what I think is much more natural from the point of view of China’s perspective interests and opportunity, which is to be a huge competitor to the United States.”

With Russia facing international sanctions that prevent it from legally obtaining funds and materials needed for war, it has created new partnerships. Chief among them is an official pact with North Korea. International officials have also confirmed that Russia is receiving financial or material support via Chinese and Iranian channels to evade sanctions.

Russia, North Korea, China, and Iran—which Sullivan referred to as the “alignment of autocracies”—have been called a new “axis” by experts. But these are still early days, Sullivan said, and how China chooses to act will set the tone for how the United States responds.

As an example, he said tensions between the United States and China are only expected to increase with the incoming Trump administration previewing high tariffs on Chinese imports across the board. Both the Biden administration and the first Trump administration have sanctioned China on various grounds, he said, and officials from both administrations repeatedly state that these are in response to actions from China, which range from trade violations to human rights abuses, rejecting claims that the United States is an aggressor.

“Most of the time, people ask ... from the point of view of: ‘What are you going to do, America, to help make that happen? How are you going to be nicer to China so China is willing to do these things?’” he said.

“Actually, it’s China’s choice to make more than it is ours,” he said.

“They have to decide. Is Xi going to make the Xi–Putin [relationship] the dominant issue, or is the PRC going to think of itself as a distinct kind of actor that is not part of this axis,” he said, using the acronym for the People’s Republic of China, the official name of the nation under the Chinese communist regime’s rule.

“I personally don’t think they fully made that decision one way or the other. The risk is really there that they will go down a darker path. ... It is not preordained that China ends up foursquare in this axis.

“I think the world should put the onus on China to make the right choice.”

Sullivan said he has had conversations with incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz, as national security and foreign policy are issues that transitioning administrations consider pressing.

He said there are two camps of thought regarding the U.S.–China relationship: one that expects “clear-eyed” competition and the other that says the United States should play a critical role in ending the Chinese Communist Party.

“No matter what the trajectory, the United States and China are going to have to learn to live alongside one another as major powers in the world for the foreseeable future, and we need terms upon which we can do that,” he said.