Over the last few years, Americans in general have stayed put. In fact, 2022’s migration rate of 8.7 percent was just slightly higher than 2021’s record low of 8.4 percent, the lowest migration rate in 75 years.
One migration trend continues to get attention, however. Left-leaning states like California, New York, and Illinois continue to bleed residents. According to a Dec. 22, 2022 report by the Census Bureau, the top two states losing population in 2022 were California (-343,230), and New York (-299,557). Both are controlled by Democrats. Meanwhile, between July 2021 and July 2022, Democrat-controlled Illinois was second only to New York in population decline.
The mass exodus from Democrat-controlled states became so profuse in 2021 that Forbes dubbed blue-state migrants “leftugees.“ Reasons cited were that people were ”desperate to escape the heavy-handed regulation-ridden government approach pushed by liberal governors,“ and they were seeking ”places where they feel safe and secure.”
Where did those people go? A huge number of them went to Florida and Texas, statistics show. In 2022, Florida’s population grew to 22,244,823—an increase of 1.9 percent—making it the fastest-growing state in the country. Texas was the largest-gaining state, reaching a population total of 30,029,572.
An overview of safety data, however, indicates that refugees from blue states may not automatically be safer and more secure when they flee.
Safer Pastures
People flee liberal-leaning states for a variety of reasons, including taxes, government regulation, cost of living, and personal freedom. Another big reason is personal safety. Liberal states are increasingly soft on crime, and states like California make frequent headlines for random acts of violence. Case in point: the recent stabbing of CashApp founder Bob Lee in San Francisco.According to a January 2021 report by CalMatters, “California is conducting an immense sociological experiment, testing whether reducing prison time for criminal acts will, in the long run, mean less crime.”
A year later CalMatters reported that 2023 “started with a string of back-to-back-to-back mass shootings,” as well as an increase in homicides and property crime.
California—a state with some of the most stringent gun restrictions—leads the nation in the number of mass shootings (25).
Equating Conservative Governments with Safety
It’s likely that those who migrate in order to “feel safe and secure” equate conservative governments with safer states.While Texas and Florida make up about 15 percent of America’s population, these states accounted for 70 percent of U.S. population growth in 2022. These states are not only Republican-controlled, they have a Republican Trifecta and a Republican Triplex. A “state government trifecta“ is when one political party holds majorities in both chambers of the state’s legislature and the governor’s office. ”State government triplex“ is a moniker for states that have one political party in the positions of governor, attorney general, and secretary of state.
Florida is also unique in that there isn’t a single Democrat in charge of any state-level office.
Are Red States Actually Safer?
However, a cursory look at the data indicates that red states might not necessarily be safer. Are the “leftugees” simply jumping from the skillet into the fire?On Oct. 25, 2022, a Wallet Hub report placed Florida 44th on the list of “Safest States in America.” Texas placed 47th. New York was number 22; California was number 27.
An analysis by World Population Review, also citing Wallet Hub data, placed Texas in third place on the nation’s “10 Most Dangerous States” list for 2023. California was fifth. California and New York weren’t mentioned.
A March 13 report by Consumer Affairs placed New York in 9th place on the safety scale of America’s states. Florida was ranked 15th. California was given the 34th spot.
Re-defining Crimes and Safety
But is the data behind those ratings accurate? It may depend on how you define “safety.”A look at the Wallet Hub analysis cited above shows that it looks at five categories: personal and residential safety, financial safety, workplace safety, road accidents, and emergency preparedness. Under “personal and residential safety,” the survey included vaccine rates, with more highly vaccinated areas considered safer.
Meanwhile, CalMatters noted that 2020 data showed that “some police departments and sheriff’s offices across the state “made fewer arrests for lower-level crimes”. Fewer people were taken to jail, and many people incarcerated in jails and prisons were granted early release.
California has also downgraded incidents of mass looting linked to “organized crime” to misdemeanor shoplifting, passed a new state law on July 1, 2022, to prohibit police from making arrests for “loitering with the intent to commit prostitution,” and in some areas, no longer prosecutes crimes like criminal threats, drug/paraphernalia possession, public intoxication, and resisting arrest.
New York is using a similar ploy to artificially reduce its crime numbers.
On Jan. 3, just days after assuming office, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg released a seven-page memo (pdf) with the list of crimes he would no longer prosecute. The New York Post reported that Bragg has also downgraded 52 percent of felony cases to misdemeanors in 2022 and won just half of the felony cases his office did pursue. In October of 2022, The New York Post revealed that the NYPD faced losing millions of dollars for failing to report its crime stats to the FBI. Even after the feds paid New York City nearly $24 million in grants, the department did not comply.
Don’t Take Crime Numbers at Face Value
You can’t take crime numbers at face value, even in red states:In October 2022, NPR reported that, while the FBI’s 2021 crime statistics had been released, they were not complete. The majority of law enforcement agencies in states like California and Florida failed to report their numbers, while two of the biggest cities in the nation, Los Angeles and New York City, reported nothing at all.
This was attributed in part to a switch in the way the FBI collects crime data, a change that the agency hopes will lead to more accurate crime reporting in the long run. Nonetheless, in the short term, police departments in many states did not participate.
The switch to the new FBI methodology resulted in confusing numbers on a state level as well. For example, according to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement’s annual state summary of crime data reports for 2021, violent crime and property crime both dropped.
However, as reported on Dec. 1, 2022, by the Tampa Bay Times, “Some Florida agencies submitted data using the old methodology, some used the new methodology, and some submitted data using both.” The differences “created blind spots in the data.”
Safer Cities
Crime numbers vary widely within states as well.Data compiled by the National Association of Realtors shows that Ocala and Tallahassee were among the cities with the greatest influx of people in 2022.
Yet data compiled by Neighborhood Scout shows there are around 51 crimes per square mile in Ocala. The national average is 26.8. With these numbers, Ocala is safer than only 7 percent of other U.S. cities. The odds of becoming a property crime victim in Ocala are 1 in 34, and the odds of becoming a violent crime victim are 1 in 151.
Neighborhood Scout’s data for Tallahassee—the state capital—shows there are an average of 71 crimes committed per square mile. While the chances of becoming a property crime victim in the State of Florida are 1 in 57, the odds are 1 in 34 in the Sunshine State’s capital. These numbers make Tallahassee safer than only 6 percent of America’s other cities. Homeowner advice website Upgraded Homes ranked Tallahassee 7th among the most dangerous cities in the Sunshine State.
Then there’s Texas.
Data released by the Census Bureau in May of 2022 showed that San Antonio and Fort Worth were the two metropolitan cities in Texas that saw the most growth.
Data from Neighborhood Scout shows that, while the odds of becoming a victim of property crime in the Lonestar State is 1 in 46, they go up to 1 in 24 in San Antonio. Your chances of being a victim of a violent crime are 1 in 133. Statewide the odds are 1 in 220. With nearly eight violent crimes per 1,000 residents and 154 crimes per square mile, San Antonio is only safer than 3 percent of the other cities in the United States.
Fort Worth isn’t much safer.
Neighborhood Scout’s data for Fort Worth show that the chances of becoming a property crime victim there are 1 in 38. For violent crime, the odds are 1 in 177. With 26.65 crimes per 1,000 residents and 87 crimes per square mile, you would be safer in only 9 percent of the rest of America’s cities.
Safety Data is Nuanced
It’s important to remember that big cities tend to be more liberal, even in conservative states. Tallahassee, for example, with its high crime rate, is known for its progressive politics. And in 2020, 58.2 percent of the vote in Bexar County—where San Antonio is the county seat—went to Democrat candidate Joe Biden.Does moving to a conservative state mean you will be safer?
The answer seems clear: not necessarily. If you’re moving because of safety concerns, remember that a variety of factors influence safety ratings, including the definition of “safety.”
Moreover, even in a conservative state, safety, like political climate, varies from city to city and metro area to metro area.
