What to Watch in Today’s New Hampshire Primary

Volunteers prepare for New Hampshire primary voting events in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, on Jan. 22, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

New Hampshire residents will cast the first votes in the national primary process Tuesday. However, given the unique situation of a former president seeking a non-consecutive second term in office, the race may effectively be decided by the Jan. 23 vote.

Former President Donald Trump is looking to be the first man since President Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms as the commander-in-chief. His massive popularity and quasi-incumbency are heavily influencing the primary contests.

President Trump, who secured 51 percent of the vote in the Republican Party of Iowa’s Jan. 15 caucuses, will take another massive step toward securing the nomination if he succeeds in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary on Jan. 23

Polling ahead of the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary indicates that President Trump holds a sizable lead over his last major challenger, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.

Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald J. Trump speaks at a rally in Laconia, N.H., on Jan. 22, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Due to the massive support behind the 45th president, many challengers for the Republican Party’s 2024 nomination withdrew from the race even before the Iowa contest began. Three more challengers–Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson–dropped out before New Hampshire.

Typically, New Hampshire voters have more than two candidates to consider. In 2016, the GOP field featured eight major candidates. President Trump won that primary, a key step on his path to the White House.

While Ms. Haley insists she will continue her campaign regardless of the result in the Granite State, President Trump is likely to be seen as the presumptive nominee if he wins the Tuesday contest. Mr. DeSantis made similar comments on Jan. 15, only to drop out less than a week later.

Independent Turnout

The participation of so-called undeclared voters could determine the New Hampshire primary.

According to registration numbers released by the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office, there were 873,359 voters registered as of December 28, 2023. Of these voters, the largest portion, totaling 343,192, are registered as undeclared. The remainder are split between registered Republicans, numbering 267,905, and Democrats, totaling 262,262.

Under state law, undeclared voters can request a Democratic or Republican ballot on election day, vote, and then re-register as undeclared voters before leaving the polling site.

New Hampshire is home to some of the loosest election rules in the country. Voters can register and vote on election day and do not need to be citizens of New Hampshire to cast a ballot. Instead, a voter must prove they are “domiciled” in the state by showing proof of residence. This allows a large number of college students and recent arrivals to participate in the contest.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley holds Arthur Coweete, 16 months, from Bow, New Hampshire, during a campaign event at T-BONES Great American Eatery restaurant in Concord, N.H., on Jan. 22, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

In a previous interview with The Epoch Times, Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center, said the undeclared voters are not true independents. One-third are clandestine Republicans and another are closet Democrats. Only a small portion are truly independent voters.

Turnout is much higher in New Hampshire than in other primary state. Experts, speaking to The Epoch Times, said that this reflects the open nature of the primary, the state’s tradition of holding the first-in-the-nation primary, and the venerable direct democratic practices of New Hampshire.

In a typical primary year, participation ranges from 40 to 70 percent.

In the 2020 presidential primary, according to the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office, about 459,000 of the state’s approximately 977,000 registered voters participated. That’s a turnout of about 47 percent. In 2016, about 542,000 of approximately 874,000 registered voters participated. A turnout of about 62 percent.

Entrance poll figures in Iowa demonstrated Ms. Haley enjoyed more support from moderate and liberal voters than President Trump. She finished third in that contest with 19.1 percent of the vote.

Biden Write-In Campaign

On the Democrat side of the election, President Joe Biden will not appear on the New Hampshire ballot. The Democratic National Committee has officially snubbed the primary, stating that it will not award any delegates to the winner and has declared it “meaningless.”

That doesn’t mean Democrat voters will abandon the president. There is a notable write-in campaign working to ensure President Biden wins the New Hampshire primary.

Despite his massive lead in the polls and his party’s backing to win the nomination as the sitting president, there are other contestants on the Democratic side. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and self-help author Marianne Williamson are mounting a primary challenge.

Mr. Phillips even scored the endorsement of a major New Hampshire newspaper on the eve of the election.

Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips speaks to supporters during a campaign rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, on January 22, 2024. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

President Biden is looking to avoid another embarrassment in New Hampshire. As vice president, he finished far behind Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the 2020 edition of the contest.

He likely wishes to avoid the humiliation President Lyndon B. Johnson suffered in 1968 when he almost lost to longtime Minnesota congressman Eugene McCarthy. President Johnson wasn’t on that ballot, either.

While President Biden faces hard questions about his age, a sprawling scandal involving his son Hunter Biden, and low voter approval totals, his position is viewed differently from situations in the past. In a previous interview with The Epoch Times, Linda Fowler, a professor emerita of government at Dartmouth College, said that he is not as burdened as President Johnson was in 1968.

President Johnson was massively weighed down by his actions to expand U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War as well as radical social change in the country, Ms. Fowler said.

The poor showing in New Hampshire, the emergence of new rivals, and the crushing pressure of prosecuting the war led him to withdraw from the race. The Democrats ultimately lost the 1968 general election to the man New Hampshire voters chose in the Republican presidential primary: President Richard Nixon.