On April 1, voters head to the polls for three races in Florida and Wisconsin, which will have substantial implications for the makeup of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Trump agenda.
In Florida, voters will cast ballots for members of the House in two deep-red district special elections as the chamber remains narrowly Republican.
Voters in Wisconsin, one of the most important swing states at the national level, are set to choose a new judge for the state Supreme Court, a contest that both sides believe could have national implications because of its impact on redistricting.
Taken together, analysts see the two contests—some of the first held since President Donald Trump’s sweeping victory in November—as key bellwethers of voter sentiment on the new administration.
Here’s what to watch for as results come in.
Democrats Hope for Florida Upset
The House contests in Florida could have the most immediate impact on national politics in a best-case scenario for Democrats, who are hoping for a long-shot victory in the two deeply Republican districts.
The seats in Florida’s First and Sixth districts were left open after former Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz, both Republicans, vacated their seats to pursue the roles of attorney general and national security adviser, respectively.
Though both won their reelection in 2024 by more than 30 points, the opposition is putting up a multimillion-dollar fight.
Trump has backed the two GOP contenders: Florida Chief Financial Officer and Fire Marshall Jimmy Patronis in Gaetz’s district, and state Sen. Randy Fine for Waltz’s district.
In Florida’s western panhandle, voters will decide between Patronis and Democrat Gay Valimont to replace Gaetz in the state’s First District. Florida’s Sixth District, situated on the state’s east coast, will see Fine facing off against Democrat Joshua Weil to replace Waltz.
Republicans maintain a substantial registration advantage in both districts, aside from the already-heavy GOP lean, but Democrats insist they have a shot.
Democrats have touted their fundraising hauls, which saw them outraise both GOP candidates, according to Federal Elections Commission reports filed on March 20 before a preelection deadline.
Valimont raised $6.4 million compared with Patronis’s $1.2 million, and Weil amassed $8.9 million compared to Fine’s roughly $560,000.
Additionally, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) recently announced an investment in both races, which includes funding more than 200 poll watchers and greeters to be deployed throughout the two districts on election day.
With the House currently split 218–213 in Republicans’ favor, every seat counts for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who can currently spare just two votes.
The results of these contests could, in the long term, help reshape the balance of the House if Democrats can manage an upset in what are conservative meccas in the increasingly Republican-majority Sunshine State.
Wisconsin Race Draws Record-Breaking Funding
Observers are also awaiting the results in Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court election.Trump in 2024 eked out the narrowest victory of his electoral sweep in Wisconsin, winning by less than 1 percent.
The race has seen record-breaking funding as liberal and conservative donors have spent more than $81 million in a contest both sides say will shape the future of the state and the nation.
Vying to replace outgoing Justice Ann Walsh Bradley in the April 1 election are Brad Schimel, a Republican-backed county judge from Milwaukee’s western suburbs, and Susan Crawford, a Democrat-supported jurist from Madison.
While the race is technically nonpartisan, candidates can make their opinions known by commenting on issues publicly. Currently, the seven-member panel includes four liberals, counting Bradley, and three conservatives.
Conservatives have described the race as a battle for the future of the state and the country. Tesla CEO Elon Musk and others have said that if liberals retain their current 4–3 majority on the court, congressional district maps will be redrawn to favor Democrats, potentially changing the balance of power in the U.S. House.
Thus, the state-level race has won significant national attention.
Schimel, who served as Wisconsin attorney general from 2015 to 2019, has been endorsed by Trump and Musk.
Crawford has the backing of the state’s Democratic Party, former President Barack Obama, the Wisconsin teachers’ union, Planned Parenthood, and the AFL-CIO.
The Stakes
Beyond their implications for the composition of the House, these races also have high stakes for Trump and Republicans.Since taking office, Trump has moved to aggressively implement his agenda based on his 2024 win, describing it as a mandate to make wide-reaching changes to American political life.
So far, that has included moves to cut illegal immigration, carry out mass deportations, implement tariffs, and increase energy production.
But some moves, such as the vast cuts recommended by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), have seen resistance from voters, including protests of DOGE spending cuts at GOP-hosted town halls.
In this context, observers are portraying these races as a referendum on Trump’s handling of his second term so far.
Even a single-digit win for Republicans in either Florida race could indicate warning signs for Republicans in 2026, as midterms tend to favor the party out of power.
Democrats are hoping that a strong showing for their candidates will demonstrate that the electorate is reeling from Trump’s aggressive second term in office, while Republicans are eager to retain both seats for a larger House majority, which will be key to passing legislation advancing the president’s agenda.
