US Needs to Win Cislunar Race Over China to Secure Peaceful Collaboration in Space: Report

H-IIA rocket carrying the national space agency's moon lander is launched at Tanegashima Space Center on the southwestern island of Tanegashima, Japan, in on Sept. 7, 2023. Kyodo/via Reuters

China will take its aggressive territorial posturing on the Earth to the moon if it can defeat the United States in the new lunar race, according to a new report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.

“The second race to the moon involves dozens of countries but clearly pits the values of the United States and its allies against the values of authoritarian China and like-minded governments,” retired Space Force Col. Charles Galbreath, senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute, said during an online event on Jan. 17 to announce his new report, “Securing Cislunar Space and the First Island Chain Off the Coast of Earth.”

In his report, Mr. Galbreath pointed out that, unlike NASA, China’s space program is controlled by its military, the People’s Liberation Army. He also pointed to a 2015 remark by the head of China’s lunar exploration program—when the official compared the moon to disputed islands in the Western Pacific—as an indication that China’s approach to the moon and other space regions will be “confrontational” based on “territorial claim, clandestine weaponization, and regional access denial.”

Currently, a lack of international norms means that whichever country arrives first at the different lunar and space regions will set the terms, the report states. 

“The United States and its partners must succeed and establish a more constructive future in cislunar space than that offered by China,” he said during the online event, noting that the cislunar space and beyond “should not be viewed territorially” like China is viewing it.

Instead, the cislunar space and beyond “should be for the common use for all humanity,” according to Mr. Galbreath.

The cislunar space is generally defined as the volume of space from Earth’s geosynchronous orbit (GEO) to the moon’s orbit. GEO is about 22,000 miles from Earth’s surface, and the moon is about 238,000 miles from Earth’s surface. Most Earth-orbiting satellites are located in low Earth orbit, while others are in other orbits, including medium Earth orbit and GEO.

China’s territorial aggression is most evident in the South China Sea, where Bejing has built artificial islands with military infrastructure. Beijing also wants to break through the first island chain—which consists of the Japanese archipelago, Taiwan, and the northern Phillippines—to project its military power in the Pacific Ocean.

Mr. Galbreath said China has “expanded territorial claims” and adopted “covert militarization, coercive diplomacy, and aggressive behavior” in the Western Pacific.

“We cannot see that type of behavior extend to the lunar environment,” he said.

“The potential implication of China establishing the practices they have demonstrated in the South China Sea to the moon is not in the interest of the United States and the growing list of Artemis Accords partners.”

NASA, in coordination with the U.S. State Department, established the Artemis Accords in 2020 with Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the United Arab Emirates, and the UK. The accords commit signatories to a common vision of peaceful, sustainable, and transparent cooperation in space. As of December 2023, there were 33 signatory nations to the U.S.-led accords, with China and Russia absent from the list.

“Action is required today to help us move the capabilities forward that we need to not only secure the cislunar domain but that first island off the coast of Earth, the moon,” Mr. Galbreath said.

Implications

A section of the report explains what the moon offers and why the United States and its allies need to “win the new race to the moon.”

Economic factors matter, the report states, pointing out that there are deposits of rare-earth minerals, elements such as platinum and lithium, and Helium-3 on the moon.

Helium-3 is a potential fuel for nuclear fusion reactors. Rare earths are 17 elements on the periodic table that are vital in many industries, including consumer electronics, defense, and green technologies. According to the International Energy Agency, China is responsible for about 60 percent of rare earth mining production in the world and almost 90 percent of processing and refining.

The idea of making a profit by sending large amounts of rare earths from the moon to the Earth “is currently dubious,” according to the report.

“However, these elements will be essential components of spacecraft that could be constructed in space and become the enablers of a future lunar economy,” the report reads.

According to the report, secure data storage and edge computing are two other economic prospects on the moon.

The moon and the cislunar environment also offer opportunities for scientific studies, the report states, such as the lunar far side, known as the shield zone, which is suited for radio astronomy given the area is free from Earth’s radio frequency interference.

“Another example of scientific interest is craters, particularly at the South Pole of the moon, that have never seen sunlight and, as a result, could possess a billion years’ worth of history about the formation of the solar system trapped in the rock and ice,” the report reads.

There are also military factors, considering that the cislunar environment “does offer a means to conduct military operations impacting the space systems and services indispensable to terrestrial operations,” according to the report.

“It is also possible to leverage the moon’s gravity to maneuver weapons to attack satellites in geosynchronous orbit and below,” it reads.

There are five key locations in the cislunar space that require special attention. Known as the Lagrange points, the report states that they offer “a commanding vantage” because of their relative locations from the Earth and the moon. These points will provide “great value to future domain awareness, communication, navigation, and scientific activities,” hence they will “likely become a significant national interest.”

During Wednesday’s online event, Jim Bridenstine, who was NASA administrator from April 2018 to January 2021, compared the five Lagrange points to oceanic gateways around the world.

“Those [Lagrange] points are going to be very valuable choke points as the Strait of Hormuz is a valuable choke point in the United States Navy,” Mr. Bridenstine said, before adding the Strait of Gibraltar and the Strait of Malacca. “These are areas where if the wrong people control these very important points, it has huge strategic implications for the United States.

“And I think the future is going to consider these [Lagrange] points as those types of choke points, and it could result in conflict if we don’t have rules, if we don’t have domain awareness.”

Recommendations

Once China establishes infrastructure on the moon, the report suggests that China could try to “limit other nations’ communications or other activities” near its facility.

“For example, China could establish a ‘scientific’ station in an area rich in lunar ice and require a keep-out zone to not interfere with their scientific research, thus effectively commandeering that region and the resources in it for their use while denying access to other nations,” the report reads.

Currently, China is aiming to put its astronauts on the moon by 2030. NASA is scheduling September 2026 for its Artemis 3 mission, the first U.S. crewed landing mission on the Moon since Apollo 17 in 1972.

Mr. Galbreath offered many recommendations in his report to the Department of Defense (DOD), Congress, the U.S. Space Force (USSF), and the U.S. Space Command (USSPACECOM).

“The DOD must establish an infrastructure for the cislunar regime, extending the types of services and capabilities currently in operation closer to Earth, such as space domain awareness, high bandwidth communications, and cislunar navigation technologies,” the report reads.

“The DOD should also detail specific military objectives it intends to achieve. This may include goals like assuring safe operations at Lagrange points or unfettered access to the lunar surface.”

Mr. Galbreath suggested that Congress needs to increase the USSF’s annual budget by an average of $250 million for new responsibility associated with “emerging national interests on the Moon.”

“Modest, early investment will simultaneously accelerate United States and allied efforts and reduce the future need for larger investments to overcome an advantage ceded to China,” the report reads.

USSF and USSPACECOM need to establish doctrine, a concept of operations and requirements to “accelerate the race to the moon and secure interests there,” another recommendation reads.

According to the report, the USSF must develop a cade of cislunar experts, invest in cislunar research and development efforts, and rapidly transition research and development activities into operational capabilities.

“Failure to act now will limit future options, create an unsustainable precedent in the cislunar environment, or even surrender U.S. leadership in space and weaken U.S. leadership globally.”