US Murders Concentrated in Handful of Counties, Urban Areas: Report

Police tape secures a crime scene outside a club after a shooting in New York City in a file photo. Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images

A small number of counties account for a vast majority of murders committed in the United States, whereas a major portion of counties have very few murders, according to a recent report, which also noted that urban areas had “much higher” murder rates despite lower gun ownership.

Murders were found to be “very concentrated” in some counties, with just 2 percent of counties accounting for 56 percent of murders, and 1 percent of the counties accounting for 42 percent of murders in 2020, said a Jan. 17 report (pdf) by Crime Prevention Research Center. In contrast, 52 percent of counties had zero murders. Sixty-eight percent of counties, accounting for 18 percent of the population, had no more than a single murder. They made up only 2.6 percent of all murders in the country.

“The worst 1 percent of counties (the worst 31 counties) have 21 percent of the population and 42 percent of the murders. The worst 2 percent of counties (62 counties) contain 31 percent of the population and 56 percent of the murders,” the report states.

“The worst 5 percent of counties contain 47 percent of the population and account for 73 percent of murders. But even within those counties, the murders are very heavily concentrated in small areas.”

The concentration of murders was found to be the “highest in over a decade.” Between 2010 and 2014, the worst 5 percent of counties saw their share of murders decline from 71 to 69 percent.

But between 2014 and 2020, this climbed by four percentage points to 73 percent. The increase was driven by the 1 percent of the worst counties, the report found.

The 2020 murder rate in the United States was 5.84 per 100,000 people. Removing the worst 5 percent of counties would reduce the murder rate to 2.99 per 100,000.

Murder Rate by County, Gun Ownership and Murder Rate

Cook County recorded the highest number of murders in the country in 2020, with 775. Los Angeles came in second with 691 murders, followed by Harris County with 537, Philadelphia with 495, New York City with 465, Wayne County with 379, and Shelby County with 311 murders. The next eight counties all registered more than 200 murders.

Travis County had the fewest murders at 57, followed by Richmond and Orange Counties at 63, Erie at 65, Lake County at 66, and Caddo and Genesee counties at 67.

The report cites a 2021 Pew Research study on gun ownership. In rural areas, gun ownership was found to be 79 percent higher than in urban areas.

Suburban households had a 37.9 percent higher chance of owning a gun than households in the urban regions. “Despite lower gun ownership, urban areas experience much higher murder rates,” the report said.

Though it added that one should not put “much weight” in this observation since many factors determine murder rates, the report admitted that “it is still interesting to note that so much of the country has both very high gun ownership rates and zero murders.”

Risk of Murder, Cities With High Murder Rates

According to an analysis by Just Facts Daily in November, if the murder rate remains at the 2021 level, one out of every 179 people in the United States would eventually become a murder victim.

The analysis found that there were 24,493 people murdered across America in 2021, which is 1,000 more murders than in 2020 and 6,000 more murders than in 2019.

There also seems to be a political angle to cities with high murder rates. A November report (pdf) by The Heritage Foundation found that, as of June 2022, 27 out of the 30 top U.S. cities with the highest homicide rate per 100,000 people had Democrat mayors.

Only two cities—Jacksonville and Lexington—had Republican mayors. The remaining city had a mayor who was an Independent.