The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued its first advisories for a storm system that is likely to strengthen into a hurricane before it hits the Gulf Coast later this week, as Florida’s governor declared an emergency on Sept. 23.
“We are tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, which is likely to strengthen this week as the system enters the Gulf of Mexico,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said in a post on social media platform X. “We will continue to monitor the storm’s path and keep Floridians updated.”
It’s not clear precisely where the storm will hit, the NHC said, but residents in the Florida Panhandle and the state’s western coast should monitor updates.
In the near term, tropical storm conditions are forecast to hit western Cuba and the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, the agency said. Hurricane conditions could occur, it further advised.
Mexico’s government issued a tropical storm warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Tulum and a hurricane watch from Cabo Catoche to Tulum. Cuba’s government issued a tropical storm warning for the Isle of Youth, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and it issued a hurricane watch for Pinar del Rio.
Although the storm hasn’t yet been named, the NHC will call it Helene as soon as it strengthens into a tropical storm.
“It could certainly become a major hurricane, which is Category 3,” Brad Reinhart, a senior hurricane specialist at the center, said. “People in the Florida Panhandle and the west coast of Florida certainly need to pay close attention.”
He said that it’s too early to forecast where it might make landfall. Reinhart warned that “there’s always some potential” for it to strengthen into a Category 4 storm, but he added that it’s not the most likely outcome.
He said the disturbance could become a tropical storm by Sept. 24 and that tropical storm conditions could affect parts of Florida on Sept. 25 as it approaches. It could turn into a major hurricane by the time it reaches the northeast Gulf Coast on Sept. 26.
“It’s a pretty aggressive forecast for intensification over the next few days,” he said. “People need to remain on high alert.”
Up to eight inches of rain is forecast for western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with an isolated total of some 12 inches. Up to four inches of rain is expected for the eastern Yucatán Peninsula, with an isolated total of more than six inches.
Heavy rainfall also is forecast for the Southeast United States starting on Sept. 24, threatening flash and river flooding, according to the National Hurricane Center.
