As a former senior Soviet analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency as well as ex-advisor to President George W. Bush, then-National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, and other senior government officials, Bryan Cunningham—who is now the Executive Director of the Cybersecurity Policy and Research Institute at the University of California–Irvine—spent years studying Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In a recent interview with The Epoch Times, Cunningham weighed in on Putin’s war with Ukraine now entering its third month.
“I believe we are in more danger now [than during the Cuban Missile Crisis],” he said. “There really is a measurable possibility of a nuclear war.”
According to Cunningham, a year ago the likelihood of nuclear war was 1 percent. Now, he says that number is “likely in the double-digits, which is terrifying.”
This is partly due to Cunningham’s belief that Putin is “less stable” than Khruschev, the former Cold War Soviet leader who once challenged the United States to a missile “shooting match,” and that there is no one in Russia who can “check” Putin’s power or remove him from office.
Additionally, Cunningham said he believes Putin’s behavior mimics previous dictators, in addition to reports that he is isolating himself from advisors and foreign dignitaries both physically and politically.
“Typically when you’re a dictator for that long, just like Stalin ... or Hitler, you stop allowing people near you who will say anything that disagrees with you,” Cunningham said.
According to Cunningham, who is also an attorney with the Los Angeles-based firm Zweiback, Fiset & Coleman, Ukraine is an all-or-nothing issue now for Putin.
“I think he’s willing to do whatever it takes to, in his mind, win. I think he feels like this is his legacy now,” Cunningham said.
Cunningham has two theories for why Putin waged the attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, including that Russia may not have the technological capacity to hack adversaries that we once thought, since it could have simply hacked the plant to shut it down.
More likely, however, Cunningham said he theorizes that when Putin used “extraordinary” military force on the plant, he risked “vaporizing” his own troops as well as half of Ukraine, a move Cunningham said was Putin’s way of telling the West: “I will do anything I have to to win this war.”
Cunningham projects that if Putin’s efforts are successful in Ukraine he will immediately invade other Eastern European states.
“This is about as high-stakes a situation as the West has faced since World War II,” Cunningham said.
To prevent a third world war with Russia, Cunningham said, the U.S. needs to provide Ukraine with whatever military aid it requests, a move he said that has taken far too long.
As a cybersecurity expert, Cunningham additionally warned of the increased threat Russia poses to individuals and businesses in the U.S. through cyberattacks.
To combat this, Cunningham advises companies and individuals to update their cybersecurity software regularly and to proactively use multi-factor authentication when logging into online accounts such as email.
When discussing what the media and politicians have “gotten wrong,” about Putin and the conflict, Cunningham said both have incorrectly assumed that the “Russian Oligarchs,” or wealthy businessmen in Putin’s inner circle, would overthrow him.
According to Cunningham, there is a misconception these businessmen provide Putin with power and wealth, when they actually rely on him for their wealth by means of alleged corruption, and would, thus, never try to overthrow him.
“I am convinced there is no limit to what Putin will do,” Cunningham said regarding the recent alleged murder-suicide of two Russian oligarchs and their families.
Cunningham stated it is far more likely that Putin planned their deaths as a warning to other businessmen in his circle of their possible fates if he is unhappy with them.
