Trump Won New Hampshire, Must Now Win Independents, Expert Says

Presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks to supporters in Concord, New Hampsire, on Jan. 23, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

CONCORD, N.H.—Former President Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary with a record number of votes received, surpassing previous highs set by Bernie Sanders in 2016. The former president is now positioned as the presumptive Republican nominee, though the primary season is barely underway.

Despite his impressive vote total in the Jan. 23 Republican contest, the composition of that electorate—and of the coalition voting for his opponent—could have implications for a potential general election matchup between President Trump and President Joe Biden.

In short, New Hampshire’s independent voters, a coveted segment of the electorate, overwhelmingly supported Ms. Haley in the Republican primary.

Of the nation’s more than 160 million registered voters, only half are affiliated with a political party and are about evenly split between the Democrats and Republicans. The rest, 41 percent, are independents according to a 2023 Gallup report.

To win in November, any candidate will be likely to need the support of the majority of those independent voters.

Trump and Independents

Of voters who said they would participate in the New Hampshire Republican primary, 21 percent were Republicans dissatisfied with President Trump who said they would not vote for him, according to an AP VoteCast survey.

Of independent voters, 68 percent said they were dissatisfied with the former president and would not vote for him.

That breakdown fits with exit polls conducted on New Hampshire primary voters by CNN. That polling showed that registered Republicans accounted for 70 percent of his support while independents contributed 27 percent.

For Nikki Haley, those proportions were reversed, as 70 percent identified themselves as independents and 27 percent as registered Republicans.

For both candidates, 3 percent support came from voters who registered as Republicans on the day.

Voter interviews conducted by The Epoch Times confirmed that a significant number of independent voters chose to vote in the Republican primary not to support Ms. Haley but to vote against President Trump.

“I’m a big Joe Biden fan,” Joyce Pracuta, 75, of Wolfeboro told The Epoch Times on election day. Ms. Pracuta voted for Nikki Haley “to avoid Donald Trump,” and said a number of the women in her quilt guild did also.

“I had a lot of liberal friends tell me they were going to vote for Nikki Haley,” Michael Garczynski, 35, of Manchester, told The Epoch Times.

Sarah Kerr, 52, of Manchester, is an undeclared voter who supported Ms. Haley on election day. “I wish it was closer, but I’m thrilled she landed where she did,” Ms. Kerr told The Epoch Times.

Unfavorability

President Biden is running as an incumbent president. President Trump, though not in office, is a quasi-incumbent. Both men are known quantities. Both have the benefit of an established political base. Both have won national elections.

They also have high unfavorability ratings with the public.

President Trump’s recent favorable to unfavorable polling has run about 46 to 53 percent: a +7 unfavorable rating.

President Biden’s favorable to unfavorable polling has been about 44 to 55 percent: a +11 unfavorable rating.

In the New Hampshire primary, both garnered a relatively low percentage of the vote for an incumbent, despite winning the contest.

Republican presidential hopeful and former President Donald Trump celebrates his victory at a primary election night party in Nashua, N.H., on Jan. 23, 2024. Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images

Though President Trump is no longer in office, his candidacy is in some ways that of an incumbent according to political commentators including Kayleigh McEnany and Newt Gingrich.

President Trump’s vote total of 54 percent is a convincing win but would rank among the lowest share for incumbent presidents. Republican incumbents who went on to win reelection averaged 82 percent of the vote in New Hampshire’s primary. That includes Richard Nixon’s sluggardly 68 percent in 1968.

President Biden’s 54 percent victory ranks low for incumbent Democrats, though more than 12,000 write-in ballots have yet to be counted. Previous incumbent Democrats who won the general election averaged 88 percent in New Hampshire.

Incumbent presidents of both parties who later withdrew from the race or lost the general election averaged 50 percent of the vote in the Granite State primary. Those were Lyndon Johnson in 1968, Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H.W. Bush, with the highest total of 53 percent, in 1992.

Battle for Hearts and Minds

Given the need to win independent voters in order to reclaim the White House, President Trump must appeal to voters beyond the Republican core, according to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a commentator for The Epoch Times.

“Trump has to really gear his campaign to be acceptable to everybody who’s tired of Biden,” Mr. Gingrich said. “He can’t allow it to be a campaign in which people decide that even though they don’t like Biden, they don’t like Trump even more.”

In his victory speech following the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses, President Trump at times appealed to a wider audience in an appeal for the common good. He spoke of repairing the nation’s crumbling infrastructure, lowering inflation, and paying off the national debt.

“We’re going to rebuild our cities and we’ll work with the Democrats to do it,” he said. “We’re going to rebuild our cities and we’re going to make them safe.”

That could be a start at winning the votes of independents, according to Mr. Gingrich.

“He said all the right things for a general election campaign. And that’s what it really has to focus on.”