According to a national exit poll, former President Donald Trump is doing substantially better in this election with young men in three of the Rust Belt battleground states than in previous elections. However, he has lost ground with older men.
In the National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research on Nov. 5, Trump grew his advantage among young and early middle-aged men in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
The results are considered preliminary and will be updated as responses continue to arrive.
According to the exit pollsters, more than 50 percent of male respondents aged 18 to 44 voted for Trump in all three of the states. Moreover, Trump lost to then-presidential candidate Joe Biden in both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2020.
According to the exit poll, in 2024, Trump carried 57 percent of the under-44-year-old male vote in Michigan, 54 percent in Wisconsin, and 53 percent in Pennsylvania.
In 2020, Biden took 53 percent of the cohort in Pennsylvania and beat Trump by a 2 percentage point margin in Wisconsin. Trump narrowly beat out Biden, by a 2 percentage point margin, with men under the age of 44 in Michigan in 2020.
However, Trump performed substantially worse with men over the age of 65 in all three battleground states.
In 2024, male voters over the age of 65 who participated in the exit poll said they voted for Vice President Kamala Harris rather than Trump in both Wisconsin and Michigan.
According to the exit poll, male voters over 65 chose Harris over Trump by a 17 percentage point margin in Wisconsin and by a 13 percentage point margin in Michigan. In Pennsylvania, older men continued to back Trump by a 3 percentage point margin.
Nevertheless, that support fell in all three battleground states. In 2016, male voters older than 65 voted for Trump rather than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by a 1 percentage point margin in Wisconsin, a 4 percentage point margin in Michigan, and a 10 percentage point margin in Pennsylvania.
The three battleground states could prove decisive for the 2024 Electoral College. Wisconsin will cast 10 electoral votes, Michigan will get 15, and Pennsylvania will send 19 electoral votes.
