Trump Skipping Republican Debate Didn’t Affect His Support, According to Poll

A Morning Consult poll shows Donald Trump’s ratings among Republican voters didn’t slip despite his absence from the first debate.
Trump Skipping Republican Debate Didn’t Affect His Support, According to Poll
Republican presidential candidates, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (L), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (2nd L), former Vice President Mike Pence (3rd L), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (4th L), Vivek Ramaswamy (4th R), former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (3rd R), U.S. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) (2nd R) and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum (R), at the GOP presidential debate on Aug. 23, 2023, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Win McNamee/Getty Images
Nathan Worcester
Updated:
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A new poll indicates that former President Donald Trump’s high standing among Republican primary voters did not slip despite his absence from the debate stage in Milwaukee this week.

The survey, conducted by Morning Consult, showed that 58 percent of those individuals would choose President Trump for their party’s presidential nomination.

The same percentage of the more than 1,250 poll respondents would have chosen him prior to the event, which he did not attend.

That leaves him 44 percentage points ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who came in second among prospective voters in the poll.

Five minutes before the Fox News/Republican National Committee debate began, former Fox News host Tucker Carlson aired an interview with President Trump on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.

Both pre and post-debate, 14 percent of voters opted for Mr. DeSantis as their prospective GOP presidential pick.

Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy came in third and enjoyed a one-point bump after the broadcast, where he was perceived by many as the winner after drawing numerous attacks from his rivals.

While 10 percent of respondents chose him before the debate, 11 percent favored Mr. Ramaswamy afterwards, according to Morning Consult.

Former Vice President Mike Pence remained flat, at 6 percent both before and after the debate, while former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who distinguished himself as a strong critic of President Trump Trump, gained one point, going from 3 to 4 percent.

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley also didn’t budge per the survey, remaining the favorite of 3 percent of the surveyed group at both times. The same was true of Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), likewise stuck at 3 percent.

Yet, another key survey suggested that Ms. Haley, seen as an establishment favorite among Republicans, gained ground during the event among at least some GOP voters.

She clashed with Mr. Ramaswamy on foreign policy, condemning his calls to cede parts of Ukraine to Russia to break up the Russia-China bloc and to cut U.S. funding for Israel.

A survey by FiveThirtyEight/The Washington Post/Ipsos saw Ms. Haley’s prospecitve support among likely Republican primary voters who watched the debate go up about 16 points, from around 30 percent to almost 47 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis.

Mr. Ramaswamy and Mr. DeSantis gained too, as did Mr. Pence, Mr. Scott, Mr. Christie, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, and former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson.

Indeed, the only two candidates whose numbers fell were President Trump and former Texas congressman Will Hurd, both of whom were absent from the debate in Milwaukee.

That analysis also suggests a higher percentage of the surveyed debate watchers are considering casting a ballot for Mr. DeSantis than for President Trump—a sign, perhaps, of how distinctive Republican debate watchers may be from an overall GOP electorate still overwhelmingly favorable to President Trump and, according to other surveys, less and less enamored of the Sunshine State’s executive.

The debate and concurrent Trump/Tucker interview came the day before President Trump surrendered at a jail in Georgia after his fourth indictment, this one the brainchild of Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis.
The move drew President Trump back to Twitter/X for the first time since early 2021. He posted an image of his now-iconic mugshot along with a link to donaldjtrump.com and a message: “Election Interference ... Never Surrender!”

An Aug. 23-24 online survey of a broad cross-section of Americans by the Canadian firm Leger found that President Trump currently edges out incumbent President Joe Biden.

If the election took place today, 44 percent of respondents would vote for Mr. Trump while 41 percent would vote for Mr. Biden.

In addition, 45 percent of those surveyed thought Mr. Trump made the right call when he skipped the debate.

Just 27 percent disagreed with his choice, while another 27 percent responded, “I don’t know.”

Nathan Worcester
Nathan Worcester
Author
Nathan Worcester covers national politics for The Epoch Times and has also focused on energy and the environment. Nathan has written about everything from fusion energy and ESG to national and international politics. He lives and works in Chicago. Nathan can be reached at [email protected].
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