Trump Says He ‘Wouldn’t Have To’ Use Military Force If China Blockades Taiwan

Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during an interview with Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait at the Economic Club of Chicago, Ill., on Oct. 15, 2024. Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images

Former president Donald Trump said he “wouldn’t have to” use military force against a China blockade of Taiwan because Chinese communist leader Xi Jinping respects him and “knows I’m [expletive] crazy.”

Trump told the Wall Street Journal editorial board on Oct. 17 that if re-elected, he would use the threat of increasing tariffs on China-made goods to 150–200 to dissuade Xi from besieging Taiwan.

A blockade to cut off the trade routes of the self-governed island, to cause natural resource depletion and panic among the Taiwanese, is a tactic that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could deploy in an attempt to force Taiwan to surrender to its governance.

The former president’s comment regarding not using military force aligns with most Americans.

Annual surveys by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs show a year-on-year decline in the American public’s support for using the U.S. Navy to counter a CCP blockade of Taiwan. In 2022, over 60 percent of Americans supported that approach. The support ratio decreased to half last year and 37 percent this year.

The think tank also reported that Americans prefer Taiwan to maintain its status quo over seeking independence or unification with the mainland. Americans support Taiwan’s inclusion in international organizations, arming and providing other supplies to Taiwan, but not sending U.S. troops to the island.

President Joe Biden has said several times that the United States would defend Taiwan if Beijing tried to annex the island by force. However, his officials walked back those statements each time, saying U.S. policy is deliberately vague on what it would do.

Vice President Kamala Harris said in September 2022 that the United States would “continue to oppose any unilateral change to the status quo” and “continue to support Taiwan’s self-defense, consistent with our long-standing policy.”

Trump commented on the issue amid rising cross-strait tensions.

China’s People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan’s Republic of China (ROC) celebrated their respective national days on Oct. 1 and Oct. 10. On Oct. 5, days before Taiwan’s National Day, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said that the PRC had just celebrated its 75th birthday, while the ROC was approaching 113 years old.

“In terms of age, it’s absolutely impossible for the PRC to be the ROC people’s ‘motherland,’” Lai added. “On the contrary, the ROC might be the ‘motherland’ of those mainland Chinese who are over 75 years old.”

After Lai reaffirmed Taiwan’s sovereignty again on Oct. 10, Beijing responded with a large-scale “joint-sword 2024-B” drill four days later. Compared to the May 23 “joint-sword 2024-A” drill, which was conducted in response to Lai’s inauguration, the Oct. 14 exercises mentioned “blockade on key ports and areas” as a focus for the first time.

Beijing described the “2024-B” drill as a “resolute punishment” for Lai’s “Taiwan independence fallacies.” During the latest military exercise, the CCP deployed four Coast Guard fleets to surround Taiwan and approached closer to the island than its drills in May and August of 2022, which were in response to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

Yao Cheng, a former Chinese Navy lieutenant colonel based in the United States, said the CCP has been working on its Taiwan blockade contingency plan since the late 1980s.

Yao told NTD Television, The Epoch Times’ sister media, on Oct. 16 that Beijing had temporarily shelved the option of forcefully landing in Taiwan because of cost concerns. Blocking off Taiwan came to be seen as the most feasible option, he said.

In an August report, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank, outlined several blockade scenarios involving various combinations of economic lockdown measures, cyberattacks, and military bombing.

The “joint sword 2024-B” exercise lasted 13 hours and didn’t involve firing any munitions. According to Yao, the drill was a rehearsal for quickly moving the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) army, navy, air force, and rocket force to planned spots to lock down Taiwan.

The Pentagon said the Oct. 14 drill was “irresponsible, disproportionate, and destabilizing.” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned the CCP against using Lai’s speech as a “pretext for provocative actions” toward Taiwan.

This response from the United States wasn’t enough, according to Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based research institution.

Singleton urged the Pentagon to return a carrier strike group to the Western Pacific—currently with none—and consider new sanctions on Chinese entities that militarize the Chinese Coast Guard.

On Oct. 15–16, Xi visited Fujian Province, the mainland’s coastal area facing Taiwan. There were no public reports about him visiting the navy of the Eastern Theatre Command stationed there.

On Oct. 17, he visited a rocket force missile brigade in Anhui Province and asked them to strengthen China’s “strategic deterrence and combat capability.”

Last month, the Chinese regime test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the South Pacific for the first time in 44 years.

Lily Zhou contributed to this report.