Trump Leads Biden in 7 Key Swing States: Poll

Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump arrives at a campaign event at the Hyatt Hotel in Coralville, Iowa, on Dec. 13, 2023. Scott Olson/Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in seven key swing states, according to a new poll by Morning Consult for Bloomberg News.

The poll, which surveyed 4,935 registered voters online between Nov. 27 and Dec. 6, showed President Trump leading President Biden 47 percent to 42 percent in the critical states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The margin of error for the combined result is 1 percentage point.

Individually, the likely nominees for the Democratic and Republican parties are polling within the margin of error in Arizona (3 percentage points), Michigan (4 points), Nevada (5 points), Pennsylvania (3 points), and Wisconsin (4 points).

President Trump leads in Georgia 49 percent to 43 percent. In North Carolina, he leads 49 percent to 40 percent.

In 2020, President Biden won Arizona, which has 11 votes in the Electoral College; Georgia, with 16 votes; Michigan, with 16 votes; Nevada, with six votes; Pennsylvania, with 20 votes; and Wisconsin, with 10 votes. President Trump prevailed in North Carolina, which has 15 electoral votes. President Biden won the popular vote and the Electoral College, according to the officially certified results.

In 2016, President Trump carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. His rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, won Nevada. Ultimately, President Trump won the Electoral College while losing the popular vote to Ms. Clinton, according to the officially certified results.

Other recent national polls echo the Morning Consult result.

A three-way poll that included independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., conducted by Rasmussen Reports and published on Dec. 14, gave President Trump an 8-point advantage over President Biden.

The poll of 892 likely voters conducted between Dec. 6 and Dec. 7 placed support for President Trump at 40 percent, President Biden at 32 percent, and Mr. Kennedy at 16 percent. That poll includes a 3 percentage point margin of error.

Trump, Biden Are Likely Nominees

In spite of legal troubles and other controversies, President Trump and President Biden are still the most likely candidates for their respective parties.

A national Reuters and Ipsos poll published on Dec. 13 said President Trump has the support of 61 percent of self-identified Republicans. That online poll of 1,689 Republicans was conducted between Dec. 5 and Dec. 11 and carries a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

As for Democrats, an Emerson College Polling survey published on Dec. 8 said 63 percent of Democrat voters support President Biden as the nominee. The Emerson poll questioned 1,000 registered voters between Dec. 4 and Dec. 6. It reports a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

The nominating process begins in January with the Iowa caucuses.

The GOP Iowa Caucus will be held on Jan. 15, 2024.

The Iowa Democratic Party’s caucus will include mailed-in preferences and in-person caucuses. The Democrats’ in-person caucuses will also be held on Jan. 15, 2024, but they will not have a presidential preference vote in person. The results of the mail-in presidential preference vote are expected to be released on March 5, 2024.