Trump Leads Biden by 10 Points in Latest Election Poll: Rasmussen Reports

(Left) Former President Donald Trump in New York on March 25, 2024. (Right) President Joe Biden in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on March 26, 2024. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images; Pedro Ugarte/AFP via Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump has boosted his lead over President Joe Biden to ten percentage points ahead of the upcoming elections, according to a recent poll.

In a three-way contest between President Trump, President Biden, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the former president gets the backing of 46 percent of likely U.S. voters, according to results of an April 29–May 1 survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports. This is a 10 percentage point lead over President Biden who only received 36 percent support. Nine percent backed RFK Jr. The 10-point lead is an improvement from the six points President Trump had in April.

The incumbent president is not faring well in terms of his popularity. His job approval rating for the 13th quarter of his presidency is the lowest of his term and is the worst among all presidents in modern history, according to a recent Gallup poll.

According to an April 29 update from Morning Consult, both President Trump and President Biden were tied with 43 percent support of voters. However, President Trump had an advantage among Independents where he netted a two percentage point lead over President Biden.

In addition, 88 percent of Trump 2020 voters said they would vote for him once again. This is four percentage points higher than the 84 percent of Biden 2020 voters who said they will support President Biden in 2024.

The poll also found that President Trump’s popularity has increased.

“Trump’s net favorability rating—the share of voters with a favorable view minus the share with an unfavorable view—ticked up to minus 2 points, the highest since early December. His rating has increased 11 points since a 2024 low reached in January,” Morning Consult stated.

An April 30 survey from Emerson College Polling/The Hill found that President Trump was leading President Biden in all seven swing states.

President Trump had a lead of four percentage points in Arizona, three in Georgia, one percentage point in Michigan and Nevada, five percentage points in North Carolina, and two in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

“The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”

However, when third-party candidates were included in the ballot, support was found to have withdrawn more from President Biden than President Trump in five states—Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

“Independent voters break for Trump over Biden in Arizona (48 percent–38 percent), Michigan (44 percent–35 percent), Nevada (43 percent–37 percent), Pennsylvania (49 percent–33 percent), and North Carolina (41 percent–38 percent). However they break for Biden over Trump in Georgia (42 percent–38 percent) and Wisconsin (44 percent–41 percent),” Mr. Kimball said.

Trump Advantage Over Biden

President Trump’s lead over President Biden comes as the GOP candidate is currently caught up in multiple indictments. In total, the former president is facing four indictments—one each in New York, the Southern District of Florida, the District of Columbia, and Fulton County, Georgia.

The New York trial is ongoing. Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court is hearing President Trump’s immunity appeal as part of an indictment alleging the former president attempted to subvert the transfer of presidential power following the 2020 election.

While some Democrats calculate that the trials against the former president could work in favor of President Biden, a recent survey says otherwise.

An April 29 survey by market research firm Leger shows that 46 percent of likely voters supported President Trump compared to 45 percent who backed President Biden. If the former president were found “guilty and imprisoned,” President Trump’s support would fall to 37 percent. However, this decline won’t benefit President Biden whose backing continued to remain 45 percent.

If President Trump is found to be “guilty without imprisonment,” his support declines to a slightly better 39 percent. In this instance, President Biden’s backing drops one percentage point to 44 percent.

And if the former president were deemed “not guilty,” his backing would remain at 46 percent while President Biden’s support declines to 44 percent.

Meanwhile, an April 12 Pew Research poll showed that only 22 percent of American adults polled in December had a favorable opinion of the Biden administration’s third year in power, which is a ten percent decline from August 2019 when the Trump administration was in its third year.

President Biden continued to have a high approval rating of 83 percent among Democrats. However, he had a rating of only 2 percent from Republicans. His rating from independents was also weak at 33 percent.

“In this election year, when Biden is hoping U.S. voters reward him with a second term, he is needing some positive momentum to put him in a stronger position to be reelected,” Gallup stated.

“However, that didn’t occur during the past three months, with Americans no more positive about how Biden is doing his job than they were in his prior quarter, or for most of the past three years.”