Trump Hints at Security Strategy Behind Teetering Deal for Ukraine’s Natural Resources

Plans to finalize a joint U.S.–Ukraine economic partnership are on hold following Trump’s White House meeting with Zelenskyy.

President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Feb. 28, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

A deal granting the United States access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and other natural resources would help protect Ukraine against Russian aggression, according to a snippet of a social media message reposted by President Donald Trump on March 2.

The snippet that Trump posted was an excerpt from a longer analysis by Michael McCune, an Arizona-based DJ and karate instructor who frequently comments on political topics on Facebook.

“Trump is actually protecting Ukraine without dragging the U.S. into war,” the excerpt reads. “By negotiating a mineral deal, Trump ensures that Americans will be involved in Ukraine’s mining industry. This prevents Russia from launching an invasion, because attacking Ukraine would mean endangering American lives—something that would force the U.S. to respond.”

For weeks, Trump has been discussing a deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in which the United States would share in the profits of Ukraine’s future natural resource development.

Trump has presented the deal as an opportunity for the United States to recoup some of its costs of supporting Ukraine in the war and as a way to ensure compensation for future U.S. aid. Zelenskyy has been hesitant to finalize an agreement for his country’s resources without firm U.S. security guarantees.

Zelenskyy was expected to sign an economic partnership agreement with the United States during his White House visit on Feb. 28. Those plans fell through as he pushed for stronger security assurances and clashed with Trump and Vice President JD Vance over the viability of diplomacy and Ukraine’s leverage at the negotiating table.

During the contentious White House exchange, Trump said that Zelenskyy was gambling with millions of lives and would either have to strike a deal or risk losing U.S. support entirely.

The social media message that Trump reposted on March 2 praised his negotiating tactics.

“In the end, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to concede, because without U.S. support, Ukraine cannot win a prolonged war against Russia,” the post reads.

“And once U.S. companies have mining operations in Ukraine, Putin will be unable to attack without triggering massive international consequences. Don’t underestimate Donald Trump. In this game of chess, he’s 10 moves ahead of everyone,” the portion of McCune’s analysis that Trump quoted concludes.

Security Guarantees, Next Steps

Although the analysis that Trump shared suggested that future U.S. interests in Ukraine would serve as a tripwire triggering some form of retaliatory U.S. response if Russia attacks, it remains to be seen whether Kyiv will find this to be a sufficient security guarantee without also frustrating Moscow.

Zelenskyy has previously raised Ukrainian membership in NATO as a viable guarantee to backstop a peace deal with Moscow. Article 5 of the NATO treaty includes a mutual defense provision, requiring member nations to aid any ally under attack.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly opposed Ukraine’s joining NATO.

President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Oval Office  on Feb. 28, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

On Feb. 26, Trump said Zelenskyy would have to make some concessions to achieve peace with Russia, including giving up Ukraine’s hopes of joining the Western alliance.

Other European countries have discussed deploying their troops in Ukraine as peacekeepers, helping to ensure that an eventual cease-fire between Kyiv and Moscow will last. Russia has opposed the idea of any NATO member nations’ deploying troops to Ukraine, even outside the scope of NATO’s mutual defense provision.

Before his Oval Office meeting with Zelenskyy collapsed, Trump had expressed willingness to provide Ukraine with some additional arms shipments. Trump expressed hopes that such military assistance wouldn’t be needed if he could help arrange a peace agreement.

In a March 1 post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy said he’s still willing to sign a joint U.S.–Ukraine economic development deal, albeit as a “first step toward security guarantees.”

The Trump administration has taken the deal with Ukraine off the table for now.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with CBS’s “Face the Nation” on March 2 that an economic deal with Ukraine can’t work without a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

“I think we have to see if President Zelenskyy wants to proceed,” Bessent said. ”What’s the use in having an economic agreement that’s going to be rendered moot if he wants the fighting to continue?”