AUSTIN, Texas—Black voters could be the next minority block to shift support to former President Donald Trump in a potential 2024 rematch with President Joe Biden, according to a political analyst.
Galen Druke, host and producer of the “FiveThirtyEight Politics” podcast, spoke on the latest polling and election data at the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) meeting in Austin, Texas on Dec. 4.
The conference, which began on Dec. 4, spans three days with 21 speakers. The event addresses elections, housing, education, technology, health, workforce, funding, and other issues.
Mr. Druke said polling suggests that President Trump, the Republican primary frontrunner, is gaining ground with black voters, just as he has with Hispanic voters.
President Trump received an 8 percent gain in Hispanic support between the 2016 and 2020 elections, he said.
In November, the New York Times/Siena College poll reported 43 percent support among Hispanics for President Trump in six battleground states, which is 14 percentage points higher than in 2016.
The same poll showed that 22 percent of black voters in the six states would support the 45th president in next year’s election, while 71 percent would back President Biden, the presumed Democratic nominee.
If that percentage is realized in the 2024 election, it would make President Trump the first Republican presidential candidate in some 50 years to get more than 15 percent of the black vote.
President Trump won 8 percent of black voters in 2020 and 6 percent in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center.
Latinos Saw Largest Swing
The Latino trend of voting Republican became apparent in 2020, he said.“Latino voters were the racial or ethnic group that saw the largest swing of any group in the country,” he said, adding that it’s too early to tell if the polls are getting it right when it comes to black voters.
The polling could be the result of “expressive responding,” where black voters may complain about Biden a year before the election but change their stance as the election draws near.
“But I don’t think we should write off the polling that we’re seeing,” Mr. Druke said.
President Biden didn’t win the same way as his Democratic predecessor, President Barack Obama, did.
President Obama won because of an extremely high turnout of minority and young voters. In contrast, President Biden won in 2020 mainly because of support from independent voters in the suburbs, Mr. Druke said.
In the 2016 presidential race, both Hilary Clinton and President Trump were “quite disliked,” but independents broke for Trump at the voting booth, he said.
The 2024 election will likely be similar to the 2016 election because both presumed candidates have relatively low approval ratings, he said.
Presidents Trump and Biden are virtually tied, with President Trump edging out his Democratic challenger by about a percentage point, according to FiveThirty Eight’s average of 2024 presidential general election polls since April 1.
The analysis, which accounts for a poll’s recency, sample size, partnerships, and other issues, shows both candidates are below 45 percent.
Electoral factors that play a role in who wins include turnout, minority voters, state versus national issues, third-party candidates, and independent suburban voters, he said. Topics such as the economy, foreign conflicts, candidate health, immigration, and legal liability for President Trump could also impact the election.
Third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who polls say is favored more by Republicans than Democrats, could play a part in who wins in 2024, he said.
However, Mr. Kennedy is grabbing a disproportionately high level of support among black voters, which could be bad for President Biden’s reelection bid, he said.
While Mr. Kennedy is getting 12 percent support in recent polls, that number will likely drop if past third-party scenarios hold.
“Now, historically, what we also know is that third-party candidates, their support craters in the final months of the campaign,” Mr. Druke said.
More Democrats may show up at the polls if social issues such as abortion are on state ballots that coincide with the presidential race. Republicans are generally seen as more competent on finances and the economy, but that message doesn’t always translate to voters, he said.
The GOP didn’t do well in the 2022 elections, in part because it’s difficult for voters to differentiate between the two parties on the economy the way they can on things like immigration, abortion, and crime, he said.
Mr. Druke said that trends matter more than absolute values in elections. If inflation begins to ease and people become more optimistic about the economy, then it may not hurt the incumbent president so much.
One indicator used to predict presidential races is the outcomes of special elections in state legislatures. Since Jan. 1, 2023, Democrats have overperformed in those elections, which is good news for President Biden, he said.
But a significant problem for Biden is his striking disapproval rating.
“So today, Biden has the lowest net approval rating of any president at this point in any presidency at a net negative 17 percent,” he said.
The bottom line is that the good and bad for both potential candidates seem about equal, he said.
“So, again, if anyone points to one data point in particular and says, ‘I know what’s going to happen in the 2024 election,’ don’t believe them,” he said.
