Former President Donald Trump trounced Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in straw polls hosted by Republican Party executive committees in the state’s two largest counties: Miami-Dade and Broward.
Miami-Dade Republicans overwhelmingly supported President Trump to be the GOP presidential nominee; 53 of the 65 sitting members voted for the former president, while just five backed the governor during a Jan. 3 meeting.
The straw poll results in bordering Broward County on Jan. 4 were similar—72 of the 83 members voted for President Trump, and only four supported Mr. DeSantis.
“It further proves that Miami-Dade County is Trump country, and Florida overall is Trump country,” said Kevin Cabrera, commissioner for Miami-Dade’s sixth district and a backer of the former president.
Mr. Cabrera said the support he sees for President Trump in the state is “astronomical.” Mr. Cabrera has heard conversations at his local coffee shop about the former president’s indictments and noted the frustration and concern some voters seem to express.
“And I think that people are not only shocked but they’re disgusted by these sorts of politics,” he said. “And I think that the independents are now, as we’ve seen in recent polling, fleeing the Democratic Party and Joe Biden.”
Broward Republican State Committeeman Richard DeNapoli hears the same sentiments when speaking with voters.
“The thought process is, ‘Wow, they’re really going after him, and it’s just not right. And he’s going to be the person to protect our rights because his are being impacted,’ you know?” he said.
‘History Repeating Itself’
Mr. DeNapoli also believes that “history is repeating itself” as President Trump’s GOP opponents severely underestimate the former president and his widespread support.“You had 16 people taking him on in 2016, and he wiped them all out,” he said.
“And it’s the same scenario, it’s like, their best day is their announcement day, and then Trump starts leaning on them, you know, talking about their record or whatever, whatever the issues are, and then they don’t make it.”
Mr. DeNapoli said taking on President Trump in the Republican primaries is a “suicide mission” for any serious candidate looking for the nomination, in part because of the former president’s “universal name ID.”
But Mr. Cabrera also noted a rise in support from Hispanics, especially in his Miami-Dade community.
“Our families came fleeing countries where we saw one president attempt to indict and put in jail his opponent, kicked them off ballots—these are the sorts of things that you see in Latin America and the Caribbean and Banana Republics, not in the United States,” he said.
Mr. Cabrera likened President Trump’s recent removal from the Colorado and Maine ballots to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro trying to prevent opposition leader María Corina Machado from holding public office in the South American country.
National Polling Trends
Mr. DeNapoli sees other emerging trends in national poll numbers. He mentioned how President Trump struggled to poll higher than Hillary Clinton or President Joe Biden in 2016 and 2020, respectively.President Trump is ahead of President Biden by a single point in Jan. 3’s Morning Consult poll. A Jan. 1 poll from USA Today that factors in third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Jill Stein, has President Trump ahead by 3 points.
Based on current polling, Mr. DeNapoli believes that the former president is in a good position to retake the White House in November. But he acknowledges that President Trump’s fate rests in six key swing states: Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
President Biden has also seen somewhat steadily declining job approval rates since he took office. The president’s support rating was eclipsed by his opposition in August 2021 after receiving backlash for his handling of ending the war in Afghanistan.
Since then, President Biden has had higher disapproval numbers, and his current approval rating is only 38.3 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight. He was at his lowest in July 2022 with 37.9 percent.
Other Strategies
There’s also the possibility that candidates such as Mr. DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy might be looking toward the long term, according to Mr. DeNapoli. While he believes that Mr. Ramaswamy might be gunning for a cabinet position in a potential second Trump presidency, Mr. DeSantis could be “building a nationwide infrastructure” for the next presidential election.Before President Trump, the previous two GOP presidential nominees came in second place in the preceding primaries. John McCain lost the 2000 primary to President George W. Bush before becoming the nominee in 2008. Mitt Romney lost to Mr. McCain in 2008 before securing the nomination in 2012.
Mr. DeNapoli believes that Mr. DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Mr. Ramaswamy will drop out eventually, but at different times.
He thinks Mr. DeSantis might call it quits after the Jan. 15 Iowa caucus, while Ms. Haley is likely to stay in the race until at least after South Carolina on Feb. 24. Mr. Christie and Mr. Ramaswamy could drop out at any time but likely not until after the New Hampshire primary, he said.
Mr. Cabrera doesn’t believe that Ms. Haley has a serious chance at the nomination, even with recently improving poll numbers.
“We sit here, and Haley is now No. 2, or Haley is now No. 3—or what have you—it’s much ado about nothing. They’re shifting numbers in between each other while President Trump has maintained a commanding lead and expanded it this entire time. They’re playing in the margins down here,” he said.
Mr. Cabrera said, “And I think, while [some voters] might have personal feelings about Donald Trump, nobody wants to see the government weaponized against him. Because today it’s him; tomorrow it’s you.”
Both Miami-Dade and Broward counties had too many absent members to do quorum votes for official committee endorsements for the GOP nominee. However, Mr. DeNapoli said the results would have been the same even if all members were present for the vote.
Few other GOP candidates received votes in either county’s straw polling. In Miami-Dade, Ms. Haley received three votes, and Mr. Ramaswamy received one. There was one blank vote and two write-ins for Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart (R-Fla.) and Miami-Dade County Commissioner René Garcia.
Ms. Haley received no votes in Broward County, while Mr. Ramaswamy received one. There was also a blank vote and five with no endorsements.
