Trump Could Get 1 Extra Electoral Vote in 2024: Here’s What It Means

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event in Grand Rapids, Mich., on April 2, 2024. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen on April 2 showed a willingness to back legislation that would potentially prevent President Joe Biden from getting one of the state’s electoral votes by endorsing a statewide “winner-takes-all” system that would likely boost former President Donald Trump.

Unlike every other U.S. state, only Nebraska and Maine assign Electoral College votes by district. A congressional district that centers around Omaha, the largest city in the state, has sometimes gone in favor of Democratic presidential candidates—notably in 2020.

However, if the state switched to a more standard system, Nebraska’s three electoral votes would likely all go to President Trump as the former president easily won the GOP-dominated state by wide margins in both 2016 and 2020.

System Could Change

In January, legislators introduced a bill to use the standard, winner-take-all system. Mr. Pillen, a Republican, endorsed the measure on April 2 in a social media post.

“It would bring Nebraska into line with 48 of our fellow states, better reflect the founders’ intent, and ensure our state speaks with one unified voice in presidential elections,” Mr. Pillen wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter. “I call upon fellow Republicans in the Legislature to pass this bill to my desk so I can sign it into law.”

President Trump backed his comment on his Truth Social platform, describing the governor’s endorsement of the measure as “very smart.”

“Governor Jim Pillen of Nebraska, a very smart and popular Governor, who has done some really great things, came out today with a very strong letter in support of returning Nebraska’s Electoral Votes to a Winner-Take-All System,” he wrote on April 2.

“Most Nebraskans have wanted to go back to this system for a very long time, because it’s what 48 other States do—It’s what the Founders intended, and it’s right for Nebraska. Thank you Governor for your bold leadership. Let’s hope the Senate does the right thing. Nebraskans, respectfully ask your Senators to support this Great Bill!”

In 2020, President Biden won Nebraska’s Omaha-based congressional district, giving him one electoral vote. President Trump carried the state with nearly 60 percent of the vote.

Some analysts have said on social media that if the Nebraska bill is signed into law, it would pose a problem for President Biden because he wouldn’t have a clear path to 270 votes to win the presidency.

“It means that if Biden can’t get the one electoral vote from the Omaha area, and he loses all the swing states except for WI, MI, PA—he would only get 269. His easiest path to 270 would be gone,” Politico analyst Jonathan Lemire wrote on X, referring to the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Mr. Pillen’s endorsement came after prominent conservative activist Charlie Kirk issued a call to contact the governor’s office to support the measure.

“I realized two things researching for my show: There was already a bill drafted, and the legislature was still in session,” Mr. Kirk told NBC News on April 2. “So I decided to do something about it. Credit to Governor Pillen and President Trump for acting quickly.”

On social media, Mr. Kirk, a supporter of President Trump, noted that if the former president wins Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and no other states in November, “he loses by exactly ONE electoral vote. Why? Nebraska.”

“Despite being one of the most Republican states, Nebraska awards its electoral votes by Congressional district instead of winner-take-all. Thanks to this system, Omaha’s electoral vote leans blue: Obama won it in 2008, and Biden won it in 2020. He’s likely to win it again this year,” he said.

In response to the push for a winner-take-all system, a spokesperson for the Biden campaign told media outlets that they are working on multiple ways to obtain 270 electoral votes.

“At this stage in the race, we’re being strategic about keeping multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes,” Biden campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt told The Washington Post earlier this year.

New Poll Numbers

A poll released by The Wall Street Journal shows President Trump leading President Biden in six swing states. The former president garnered a lead of between 2 and 8 percentage points among voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina on a ballot that included a third-party candidate and an independent candidate, according to the poll.

But the results were similar in a one-on-one, Trump–Biden matchup, the paper said.

In Wisconsin, a seventh state where the contest is expected to be close, President Biden was ahead by 3 points on a multiple-candidate ballot and tied in a head-to-head contest with President Trump, the Journal said.

The Biden reelection campaign is grappling with voter concerns about the U.S. economy despite job growth, healthy spending, and better-than-expected increases in gross domestic product, an issue that has vexed economists and Democratic political strategists.

President Trump was viewed as having the better physical and mental fitness for the job by 48 percent of respondents, compared to 28 percent for President Biden, the poll showed.

Reuters contributed to this report.