Trump Consistently Gaining Hispanic Voters

A bilingual sign outside a polling center at a public library ahead of local elections in Austin, Texas, on April 28, 2013. John Moore/Getty Images

The Latino vote is shifting toward former President Donald Trump heading into the Nov. 5 election, according to polls and pollsters—a trend that could flip conventional wisdom about which party better aligns with Hispanic values.

Mark Mitchell, head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, said recent polls show more Hispanic voters favoring Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, over Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris.

“Where we’re at now is—depending on the poll—Trump wins the Hispanic vote nationally,” he told The Epoch Times.

Latinos are overwhelmingly against illegal immigration and don’t think the government is doing enough to stop it, he said.

“The values of these people don’t match the mainstream Democrat platform, which is basically upper-class, white liberal, luxury values,” he said.

Trump also appears to be gaining ground with black voters.

However, Mitchell cautioned people from assuming that Trump would win the presidency if he wins the majority of the Hispanic vote and a more significant percentage of black voters than Republicans usually do.

That’s because a lot of white liberals and college-educated voters are supporting Harris, which could offset Trump’s gains with minorities.

Also, minority support for Trump could appear stronger than it really is if those voters sit out the election, he said.

Harris Lead Vanishes

Several recent polls show that in the waning days of the race, Hispanic support is basically tied between Trump and Harris, with each candidate leading in two polls apiece.

A USA Today/Suffolk University Poll taken by landline and cellphone Oct. 14–18 showed Harris losing ground among Latino voters. Trump was favored by 49 percent of Hispanics compared to 38 percent for Harris. The margins of error for the small subsamples of Latinos and Black voters were plus or minus 9 points.

A Rasmussen poll of 237 likely Hispanic voters conducted Sept. 19–25 showed 49 percent would vote for Trump, while 42 percent would vote for Harris. The margin of error was within 2 percentage points, but that was for the entire 1,820 likely U.S. voters surveyed.

A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6 among 902 Hispanic voters showed that Hispanics favored Harris by 56 percent to Trump’s 37 percent, with 7 percent who were undecided or refused to answer. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.5 points.

A similar NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll conducted nationally Sept. 16–23 with 1,000 registered Latino voters in English and Spanish showed Harris’ support at 54 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

Harris’ lead with the key Latino vote appeared strong at first after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Maria Teresa, president of Voto Latino, a Democrat group, told The Associated Press that replacing President Joe Biden with Harris sparked a “coalescing of the community” and that more than half of young Latinos who initially said they would vote for a third-party said they were shifting to vote for the Democratic Party.

Appealing to Hispanics

Latinos disapprove of an open border, something the Harris campaign appeared to recognize by running ads advocating for more border security.

Harris, who was dubbed the border czar under the Biden administration, has attempted to distance herself from policies during the last four years that contributed to some 10 million illegal immigrants crossing into the country.

Harris tried during a Telemundo interview to appeal to Latinos through emphasizing training programs and an “opportunity economy,” announcing plans to award 1 million forgivable business loans of up to $20,000 to Latino entrepreneurs. That was similar to an earlier proposal aimed at black male voters.

The Harris campaign seized upon an opportunity to paint Trump in a negative light after a comedian cracked an off-color joke about Puerto Rico during Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally earlier this week.

However, Mitchell said it appeared unlikely that a joke would hurt Trump, given his popularity has survived impeachments and lawsuits.

Trump reached out to Latinos on Oct. 22 at his Hotel and resort in Miami-Doral, Florida, hosting a “Latino Americans for Trump” roundtable with business leaders where he focused on his plans to shut down illegal immigration across the southwest border.

Trump is against communism, which appeals to Latinos with Cuban and Venezuelan heritage who suffered under socialist regimes.

Texas Pastor Luis Cabrera, who’s part of the Remnant Alliance conservative group that supports Christian values in politics, said Trump appeals to many Latinos who traditionally value God, family, and country.

He said he is seeing a dramatic shift in support for Republicans from South Texas Latinos in 2024, which leads him to predict Trump could win 50 percent of the Hispanic vote, not only in Texas but across the country.

“That’s a massive swing,” he said. “The Latino people are going to shift this whole nation.”

Cabrera said Hispanics are conservatives but that some don’t realize it yet.

“I’m calling this a righteous wave,” he said.

Cabrera started seeing a shift in Latinos toward Republicans two years ago while supporting Republican congressional candidate Mayra Flores, who ran against Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th Congressional District.

Flores, a legal immigrant from Mexico married to a border patrol agent, won a special election to fill the seat temporarily in 2022 before being defeated by Gonzalez in the general election.

The two candidates are up for a rematch this November in the Rio Grande area of Texas, a Democratic stronghold for a century.

Increased Hispanic support for Trump is playing out on the ground. Several Hispanics interviewed by The Epoch Times explained why they were voting for Trump this time around.

Minerva Perez said she would vote for Trump while standing outside her Brownsville, Texas, home on Oct. 1, 2024. Darlene McCormick Sanchez/The Epoch Times

Minerva Perez and her family live about five miles from the Mexican border in Brownsville, Texas.

After voting for Democrats all her life, she said, she’s voting straight Republican. Trump can reduce sky-high food prices and stop illegal immigration, she said.

Her entire family is voting for Trump, too, she said.

“I want changes,” she said.

In San Simon, Arizona, Veronica Mora Huff, 34, said she was frustrated with illegal immigration and the high cost of living under the Biden–Harris administration.

Huff, whose family is Mexican American, said she and her husband work hard but are struggling to raise their children, while illegal immigrants have it easier with free housing and health care.

“My husband works seven days a week. I work five days a week. We have three daughters,” she said. “We barely get by, and it’s not right because we do what we’re supposed to as Americans.”

Ernesto Alonzo Chapa sat on his porch Sept. 30. 2024, in Kingsville, Texas, discussing why he supports Vice President Kamala Harris for president. Darlene McCormick Sanchez/The Epoch Times

However, Ernesto Alonzo Chapa of Kingsville, Texas, said he supported Harris and the Democrats, who he thinks will do more to help people and are more respectful of their issues, such as abortion access for women.

Chapa thinks both parties need to stop mass immigration. He believes Trump would shut the border down, but so would Harris.

He didn’t like how Trump treated people looking for a better life or his involvement in the Jan. 6 Capitol breach.

“He saw all that going on,” but did nothing, Chapa said.

Jacob Burg contributed to this report.