Trump Closes Gap on Biden Among Latino Voters, Now Leads on Key Issues: Poll

(Left) Former President Donald Trump in New York on March 25, 2024. (Right) President Joe Biden in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on March 26, 2024. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images;Pedro Ugarte/AFP via Getty Images

A new poll shows that Latino voters are increasingly turning their back on President Joe Biden and warming up to former President Donald Trump, who now leads this demographic on key issues of crime, immigration, and the economy.

The Axios/Ipsos poll, the results of which were released on April 9, show that frustrations over crime and inflation have led President Biden’s lead among Latino voters to dwindle close to zero.

When Latinos who intend to vote in the November presidential election were asked who they plan to vote for, 31 percent said President Biden and 28 percent said President Trump, a difference of just 3 percentage points.

However, given the poll’s 3.6 percent margin of error, this means that it’s technically possible that President Trump could actually be leading his main rival among Latino voters by up to 0.6 percentage points.

Not only that, but President Trump is ahead of President Biden among Latinos on the top three most worrying issues, according to voters: inflation, crime, and immigration.

Trump Pulls Ahead on Key Issues

President Trump now leads President Biden on immigration (29 to 22 percent), crime and public safety (31 to 20 percent), and the economy (42 to 20 percent).

Support for the former president on these issues tracks closely with the top issues that Latino voters find most concerning: inflation or cost of living (53 percent), crime or gun violence (34 percent), and immigration (28 percent).

By contrast, President Biden leads on issues that don’t seem to be top of mind for this demographic, namely the “health of American democracy” (28 to 23 percent) and abortion (30 to 21 percent).

In terms of the list of most worrying issues, concern about democracy isn’t on the list at all, with perhaps its closest proxy being “political extremism or polarization,” an issue just 16 percent find most concerning.

Abortion or access to abortion is the top issue of concern for just 10 percent of Latino voters.

Rep. Carlos Giménez (R-Fla.), a Cuban-American, told Fox News in a recent interview that it’s been evident to him for some time that Hispanics are turning away from the Democrat Party in general—and from President Biden in particular.

“Look, the Democrat Party is ... more and more just white liberals, ultra-liberals, socialists, and Hispanics are turning away from that because those aren’t our values,” Mr. Giménez told the outlet in an April 1 interview.

The Florida lawmaker added that he believes President Trump is on track to get the highest number of Latino votes of any Republican presidential candidate in history.

The latest polling numbers seem to back that view. In terms of overall favorability among Latinos, President Trump has been steadily gaining ground on the incumbent.

In December 2021, President Biden enjoyed a 55 percent favorability rating among Latinos, compared to 25 percent for President Trump.

But over time, President Biden’s lead has dwindled, to where he now has 41 percent favorability among Hispanics, compared to President Trump’s 32 percent.

Neither the Biden nor the Trump campaign returned a request for comment on the poll.

Money in 2024 Election Cycle

President Biden and President Trump are poised to face off in the Nov. 5 general election in a repeat matchup of 2020, which was the most expensive federal campaign in history.

In the 2020 election cycle, spending on the presidential race exceeded $6 billion, according to OpenSecrets.org, a nonpartisan research group that tracks money in American politics.

Spending in the 2024 cycle is expected to set new records, with advertising monitoring firm AdImpact projecting that over $10.2 billion will be spent on political ads, or roughly 13 percent higher than four years ago.

The Biden campaign and allied groups have spent over $16 million on ads since the Super Tuesday primaries on March 5, and have $132 million reserved in ads through Election Day, according to AdImpact.

By contrast, the Trump campaign and its allies have spent $3.4 million since Super Tuesday, with $265,000 in currently booked ads.

With money playing such a big role in U.S. politics, attention is also focused on campaign fundraising.

President Biden and the Democratic National Committee said recently that they now had over $192 million in their coffers, compared to the roughly $141 million war chest of President Trump and the Republican National Committee, which got a big boost with a record-breaking $50.5 million raised at a single Florida fundraiser over the weekend.

A look at dark money groups and their backers shows that Democrats are outspending Republicans in the current election cycle by roughly $800 million to $160 million.