After the disappointing October jobs report, former President Donald Trump’s campaign commented on the news, attributing the weak numbers to the Biden–Harris administration’s policies and suggesting it could signal more challenges ahead should Vice President Kamala Harris take leadership.
Last month’s jobs report was the worst since December 2020, as several sectors shed thousands of jobs, including manufacturing (negative 46,0000), retail trade (negative 6,400), leisure and hospitality (negative 4,000), and transportation and warehousing (negative 3,700).
August and September employment gains were also revised down by a total of 112,000.
With only a few days until the presidential election, the current administration would not have liked to see these employment numbers.
“Kamala broke it. Trump will fix it,” the Trump campaign said, referring to his closing argument. “It’s the worst jobs report of the Harris–Biden administration—and a harbinger of what’s to come if Kamala is elected.”
“In a single month, Kamala’s failed economic agenda wiped out nearly 30,000 private sector jobs and nearly 50,000 manufacturing jobs,” Leavitt said. “Working families are being ripped off by the Harris-Biden economic agenda.”
House Republican Conference Chair Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) also chimed in.
“In one month alone, Kamala Harris’ catastrophic economic agenda failed to create new jobs, missing expectations by tens of thousands and costing hardworking Americans nearly 50,000 manufacturing jobs, devastating American families already hurting from Kamalaflation,” Stefanik said in a statement.
The White House attributed the smaller-than-expected October jobs data to the economic fallout from the devastation caused by hurricanes Helene and Milton and labor strife.
“Job growth is expected to rebound in November as our hurricane recovery and rebuilding efforts continue,” President Joe Biden said after the numbers were released.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) shrugged off the jobs data and pointed to the administration’s wider record.
“America’s economy continues to grow thanks to President Biden and Vice President Harris, with 16 million jobs created, the lowest average unemployment rate of any administration in 50 years, and inflation continuing to decline on their watch,” DNC spokesperson Kelly Ramirez said in a statement.
Inside the October Jobs Report
Speaking to reporters on Oct. 30, top White House economist Jared Bernstein stated that the devastating natural disasters in the southeast and strike activity would weigh on the employment data.“In other words, outside estimates suggest that strikes and weather-related events could collectively lower October payrolls by ... actually, could collectively lower the change in the October payroll by as much as 100,000 jobs,” said Bernstein, who chairs the president’s Council of Economic Advisors.
Thousands of Boeing factory workers have been on strike for seven weeks. It is unclear when the labor dispute will end as International Association of Machinists union members rejected Boeing’s latest contract offer. While the company offered a pay raise, union leaders are also demanding the restoration of a pension that was ended in 2014.
In the aftermath of the hurricanes, economists anticipated that the upcoming economic data, including employment numbers, would be distorted.
However, the risks might have receded based on the federal government’s timely week-to-week data covering initial jobless claims. First-time unemployment benefit claims fell to their lowest level since May after an initial spike in early October.
The household survey—focusing on topics such as health, education, and food security—was conducted according to standard procedures, and response rates were normal. Data gatherers found difficulty with the establishment survey, which covers businesses, government agencies, and nonprofits and captures employment, earnings, and hours worked figures.
“The initial establishment survey collection rate for October was well below average,” the BLS said. “However, collection rates were similar in storm-affected areas and unaffected areas. A larger influence on the October collection rate for establishment data was the timing and length of the collection period.”
The collection period took only 10 days in October and was completed just before the end of the month. Additionally, the BLS noted that the weather may have impacted industries but that “it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change” regarding employment status or wage estimates.
Prior to the October jobs report, economists expected hindrances.
“With a wide range of expectations heading into the October labor market report, it was well known that the noise flowing through the report would make it more difficult to attain any economic signal from the data,” Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, told The Epoch Times in an email.
Regardless of circumstances, “the jobs report was one of the first U.S. economic releases in a while to come in worse than expected,” Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO, said in a note.
“However, bad weather and large labor strikes muddy the water and make labor market weakness appear worse than it truly is.”
The report “dampens the enthusiasm from last month’s report” amid “poor jobs downward revisions” that were “even worse than the hurricane adjusted estimates,” Bryce Doty, senior vice president at Sit Investment Associates, stated in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.
Frequent and sizable revisions have been common in the monthly nonfarm payrolls report for the past two years.
Initial readings this year suggested that the economy created about 2.1 million jobs. After the BLS’s first and second revisions, the country has added approximately 1.6 million.
