Trump Beats Biden in Multiple Polls, Leading in Seven Swing States

(Left) Former Vice President Joe Biden at The Queen Theater in Wilmington, Delaware, on October 23, 2020. (Right) President Donald Trump addresses supporters in Gastonia, North Carolina, on October 21, 2020. Angela Weissaul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Biden in the polls for the November elections, with Republicans maintaining their lead even with the addition of third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

A May 15-19 Harvard/Harris poll showed that if the 2024 election were held now, President Trump would gain 47 percent of the votes, nine percentage points more than Biden’s 36 percent. With RFK Jr. in the mix, the lead narrows to eight percent. Another poll by Echelon Insights showed President Trump topping the race with 49 percent support, a three percentage point lead over President Biden. When RFK Jr. is added to the race, the GOP candidate’s lead expands to five percent.

A poll from Rasmussen Reports published earlier this month showed that in a three-way contest between President Trump, President Biden, and RFK Jr., the former president gets the backing of 46 percent of likely U.S. voters. This is a 10 percentage point lead over President Biden with only 36 percent support.

A May 20 Morning Consult poll showed President Trump and President Biden in a neck-to-neck race in the elections. “Trump leads Biden by 1 percentage point in our latest tracking, 44 percent to 43 percent,” according to Morning Consult.

“The race remains closer than before Super Tuesday when Trump consistently led. Trump performs slightly better with Republicans and his own 2020 backers than Biden does with Democrats and his 2020 supporters.”

The poll also found President Biden maintaining a “popularity edge” over his challenger. “This is the third successive week in which Biden’s net favorability rating has bettered Trump’s—the longest such stretch since April 2023.”

The latest bets at Polymarket as to who will win the 2024 presidential race have 55 percent of people putting their money on President Trump to secure his second term, a 14 percentage point lead over President Biden with 39 percent backing.

This is President Trump’s “greatest lead” over his challenger since March 10, InterativePolls said in a post on the social media platform X.

Swing State Polling

In key battleground states, President Trump is emerging as a winner in several surveys. According to an average of multiple polls by RealClear Polling, President Trump had a lead in all seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Overall, the GOP candidate had a 3.6 percentage point lead over President Biden in the seven states. His largest lead was in Nevada at 6.2 points, followed by North Carolina with 5.4 points, Arizona with 5.2 points, and 4.6 points in Georgia.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, points out that “the share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”

An analysis by The Epoch Times of the averages of election polls during Q1, 2024, showed President Trump leading President Biden in swing states. According to Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar Group’s head pollster, the GOP candidate’s “hidden voters” are becoming more vocal in the polls.

“The hidden Trump vote has always been there, and there’s a certain segment of Trump people who just won’t say they’re for Trump,” he said. While the share of these hidden voters varies by state, “you’ve probably got three to five percent of Trump people kind of under the radar.”

This year, the share of such Trump supporters hidden under the radar has become a “little smaller” since they are no longer silent, he stated. As a result, their voices are being calculated into the polls, thus contributing to President Trump’s lead.

Minority Votes

Meanwhile, President Trump is also seeing a boost in support among minority groups like black and Hispanic voters.

A February survey from Gallup showed that while Democrats still enjoyed majority support among black and Hispanic voters, their lead over the GOP has narrowed, offering some advantage to President Trump.

“The Democratic Party’s wide lead over Republicans in Black Americans’ party preferences has shrunk by nearly 20 points over the past three years,” according to the Gallup report. “Democrats’ leads among Hispanic adults and adults aged 18 to 29 have slid nearly as much, resulting in Democrats’ holding only a modest edge among both groups.”

During an event last month, Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) said that the Democrat presidential candidate continues to enjoy massive support among black voters.

“I go to an African American barbershop. I go to an African American Church. Joe Biden is as strong with African Americans as he has ever been,” Mr. Clyburn said.

In an interview with The Epoch Times, Matthew Wilson, a professor at Southern Methodist University, said the shift in the voting preferences of minority voters “shows up consistently in survey after survey, and it also shows up in actual electoral results going back to 2016.”

“And there’s just real movement and more diversity in the electoral outcomes in [predominantly black and Hispanic precincts] than had been true in the past. So I think Democrats who are inclined to write it off as artificial are engaged in wishful thinking, because it shows up in multiple different indicators.”

During a May 17 speech, President Biden accused Republicans of wanting to exclude “diversity.”

“My predecessor and his extreme MAGA friends are now going after diversity, equity, and inclusion all across America,” he said. “They want a country for some, not for all.”