Milton Expected to Become a Major Hurricane, DeSantis Declares State of Emergency

The National Hurricane Center’s forecasted track of Tropical Storm Milton as of 5 p.m. ET on Oct. 5, 2024. National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center

TAMPA—Tropical Storm Milton is now expected to become a major hurricane before it makes landfall on Florida’s west coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of 5 p.m. ET on Oct 5, Milton is expected to bring “life-threatening impacts” to Florida’s Gulf Coast, achieving maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane.

Major hurricanes are those with maximum sustained winds exceeding 110 mph.

Last spotted 245 miles north of Veracruz, Mexico, with estimated sustained winds of 40 mph, Milton is forecast to become a hurricane within the next 36 hours as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico.

It will then make landfall on the Florida Peninsula on the afternoon of Wednesday, Oct. 9, and as of 5 p.m. on Oct. 5, its trajectory has its center aimed toward St. Petersburg.

“There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge, and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday,” the National Hurricane Center stated in its latest discussion. “Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast.”

In anticipation of landfall, Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 35 counties, including Tampa Bay area counties of Hillsborough, Pinellas, Manatee, and Sarasota.

“As many continue to recover from Hurricane Helene, I have directed @FLSERT and @MyFDOT to coordinate all available personnel and resources to supplement local communities as they expedite debris removal in impacted areas,” DeSantis said on X. “We will continue staging state assets to prepare for efficient search and rescue, power restoration, and roadway clearing.”

No coastal watches or warnings have been issued as of 2 p.m. on Oct. 5, but hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida beginning on Oct. 6.

Heavy rainfall is also expected to impact portions of Florida’s coast on Oct. 6 and Oct. 7. This will be separate from the rainfall expected to be delivered by Milton later on Oct. 8.

Milton is forecast to deliver five to eight inches of rain with localized totals up to 12 inches across the Florida peninsula and the Keys through Oct. 9.

Milton-related rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, areal, and isolated moderate river flooding.

It is too soon to know for certain exactly where Milton will make landfall, but the Tampa Bay area—which includes the cities of Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater, and Manatee—and Sarasota are currently in the middle of the “cone of uncertainty.”

The National Hurricane Center’s forecast advisory puts Milton more than 200 miles north of Cancun by 2 p.m. on Oct. 8 with maximum sustained winds of around 100 knots, or around 115 mph. Tropical storm-force winds (39–73 mph) are expected to extend out more than 120 miles from the storm’s center in every direction and up to 140 miles to the northeast.

The extended outlook—which the National Hurricane Center states averages an error of 125 nautical miles—puts Milton’s center just offshore of St. Petersburg by 2 p.m. on Oct. 9, with 115 mph winds and tropical storm-force winds extending more than 150 miles northeast and more than 140 miles southeast.

If Milton makes landfall in the Tampa Bay area, it will be the first named storm to do so in more than 100 years. The last one made landfall in Tarpon Springs in 1921.

Meanwhile, residents in Tampa Bay and across the Gulf Coast are still reeling from the record-setting storm surge brought upon by Hurricane Helene on the night of Sept. 26.